Geopolitics & Forecasts (Part 2)

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL  as of the close of Friday April 12, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/12), the value of SGS was calculated to be -15 and the status of SGS changed from LONG to NEUTRAL.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The SPX's support and resistance levels for the current week are displayed above. There's a notable chance of Israel intensifying its involvement in the Middle East conflict, potentially leading to a several-day sell-off of a few percentage points. Furthermore, if companies' earnings reports and forecasts fall short of market expectations, indices might correct an additional 5% to 10% from their closing values last Friday.

My Plan

No change since last week, I'm 95% in cash and collecting around 5% in interest.  I have no plan to open any new long or short positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Forecasts & Geopolitics

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/5), the value of SGS was calculated to be +161 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Two important things are happening at the same time this week:

1. Companies start to report their Q1 earnings and more importantly their outlook and forecasts for the rest of the year.
   
   
2. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine could escalate significantly and turn from isolated regional conflicts into more international conflicts with direct involvement of the West.  That would send Oil to $150 to $200 a barrel over night and crash equity markets across the globe.  What indices do between now and November will be very telling as far as who would win the election.  A multi-month significant selling (greater than 15%) would signal Trump as the next POTUS, otherwise it would be Biden. 

My Plan

I'm 95% in cash and collecting around 5% in interest.  For now I have no plan to open any new long or short positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

SPX 6,000 Sometime This Year?

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/28), the value of SGS was calculated to be +326 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  The U.S. Dollar, like many other hard currencies, is losing its value and also losing its supremacy, particularly in the global energy market.  So if you have a currency that is depreciating, then everything, including stocks, price in that currency has to be priced higher.  There is a good chance that SPX reaches 6,000 and beyond sometime this year. 
My Plan

I'm looking to open new long positions sometime in the next couple of weeks. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/22), the value of SGS was calculated to be +295 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  All three major indices (SPX, NDX, and RUT) held their supports on their weekly charts but they are serenely overbought.  

My Plan

I closed my long positions (except Crypto positions) in my long-term accounts last Friday.  I'm looking to open new long positions sometime in the next couple of weeks. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Major Indices Are At Critical Supports

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/15), the value of SGS was calculated to be +160 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  All three major indices (SPX, NDX, and RUT) are at critical support levels on their weekly charts.  More selling this week would signal a high likelihood of a change in the trend and possibly more selling ahead. 

My Plan

I'm watching SPX, NDX, and RUT on their weekly charts.  If uptrend lines on those charts are breached this week and SGS continues to put in lower values, my plan is to close all long positions (except Crypto).

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Rally Since Last November Is Intact

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/8), the value of SGS was calculated to be +402 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

I bought COST last week with 7% of my long-term money. My plan is to stay invested and add to my long positions if there is a significant sell-off.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

No Change, Rally Continues

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/1), the value of SGS was calculated to be +340 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  With major indices putting in new all-time highs, the rally since late November very likely continues.

My Plan

No change since last week, my plan is to stay invested and add to my long positions if there is a significant sell-off.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Rally Very Likely Continues

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (2/23), the value of SGS was calculated to be +231 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  With major indices putting in new all-time highs, the rally since late November very likely continues.

My Plan

No change since last week, my plan is to stay invested and add to my long positions if there is a significant sell-off.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

The Uptrend Is Intact

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (2/16), the value of SGS was calculated to be +243 and the status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  The uptrend is intact.

My Plan

No change since last week, my plan is to stay invested and add to my long positions if there is a significant sell-off.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Indices Can Remain Overbought For A While, A Long While

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (2/9), the value of SGS was calculated to be +188.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Since late November 2023, SPX has rallied 25%.  Short-term, indices are overbought but indices can remain overbought for a while, a long while.

My Plan

With SGS being LONG, my plan is to stay invested and add to my long positions if there is a significant sell-off.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Short-term, Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (2/2), the value of SGS was calculated to be +137.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Since late November 2023, SPX has rallied 21%.  Short-term, indices are overbought and there is a good chance that SPX sells off this week to test supports.

My Plan

I bought SMH last Tuesday.  With SGS being LONG, my plan is to stay invested and add to my long positions if there is a significant sell-off.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG  as of the close of Friday Jan 26, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/26), the value of SGS was calculated to be +125.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Indices are overbought and there is a good chance that SPX sells off early this week to test supports.

My Plan

With SGS going from NEUTRAL to LONG, my plan is to buy SMH with half of my remaining cash sometime early this week.  There is a good chance that SMH sells off to around 180.  My plan is to buy SMH at 180.16 via GTC orders.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.