Computer Says No / Computer Says Yes

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday August 18, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As summarized in the table below, S&P 500 (SPX) has had nine 20% or higher corrections since its inspection in 1957.  The average counter-trend rally in those bear markets was nine weeks long.   Also, on average, the longest counter-trend rally in those bear markets retraced back 56% of the initial decline.

From its last October low, SPX rallied for 45 weeks to its recent high late last month, retracing back 85% of its 2022 bear market decline.  The 45 week rally and 85% retracement are significantly higher than averages shown in the table above.  Therefore with a high degree of confidence, we can conclude that the rally since Oct 2022 is not a counter-trend bear market rally in a broader bear market. 

In summary:

• Is the rally since last October a bear market rally? Computer says no :(
  
  
• Is the rally since last October likely a new leg of a bull market? Computer says YES! :)

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (8/25), the value of SGS was calculated to be -231.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change since last week, I'm watching price charts and if recent highs are breached, my plan is to bring my remaining cash (10%) in and buy QQQ.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Correction Has Very Likely Run Its Course

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday August 18, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As of the close of last Friday, SPY has corrected around 5% from its recent high in late July.  As shown on its weekly chart above, SPY has also retraced back 33% of recent up-leg which is quite within the 40% retracement range typically seen for a powerful bull leg. 

The correction has very likely run its course and indices will resume their rally to challenge their all-time highs later this week.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (8/18), the value of SGS was calculated to be -238.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change since last week, I'm watching price charts and if recent highs are breached, my plan is to bring my remaining cash (10%) in and buy QQQ.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Changes To SGS Market Timer

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday August 11, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

The correlation of SGS with SPY for the last four years is shown above.  Based on those results, going forward, the following changes are made for determining the status of SGS:

SGS status is LONG when SGS greater than zero

SGS status is SHORT when SGS less than -200

SGS status is NEUTRAL when SGS is less than zero but greater than -200

As of the close of last Friday (8/11), the value of SGS was calculated to be -57.  The status of SGS changed from LONG to NEUTRAL

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  The uptrend for SPX on its chart (ASL) is still intact.  If that line is breached and SPX closes below it this Friday, then one must consider the likelihood of further selling and possibly a retest of 3808 or even 3491 lows.

My Plan

No change since last week, I'm watching price charts and if recent highs are breached, my plan is to bring my remaining cash (10%) in and buy QQQ.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

The Uptrend Is Intact

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday July 14, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (8/4), the value of SGS was calculated to be +57.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  The uptrend for SPX on its chart (represented by the steeper TUL) is still intact.  If that line is breached and SPX closes below it this Friday, then one must consider the likelihood of further selling and possibly a retest of 3808 or even 3491 lows.

My Plan

Per my plan I bought SMH and IWM (5% each) last Monday.  I'm watching price charts and if recent highs are breached, my plan is to bring my remaining cash (10%) in and buy QQQ.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.