SPX And NDX Have Topped Out

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 7/17/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

A top has been formed now and large cap indices (DJI, SPX and NDX) are positioned to follow RUT to lower values.  SPX tested its 20 D-SMA on again on Friday.  That was the 8th test of that support for SPX in the last 3 weeks.  After so many blows, that support has been weakened substantially and it's ready to cave in, probably early this week.  A daily close below 20 D-SMA would signal more selling and a very likely test of 50 D-SMA for SPX.

Looking at weekly charts,  since 2009 bottom, every time that RUT has traded at or below its 50 W-SMA, SPX has at least tested its 20 W-SMA.  RUT is about to test 50 W-SMA (1128, very likely this week) again which would suggest a temporary bottom for sell off around 1910ish for SPX

RTS Portfolio is 50% short in IWM, QQQ, SPY (equally) and 50% in cash.   My plan is to add to its short positions (another 25%)  as SPX starts to trade below its 20 D-SMA.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

It Might Pretty Ugly This Coming Week

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of closes of 7/17/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

Updated for trades on 7/18/2014

SPX back tested its Primary Downtrend Line (PDL, shown in black) on Friday.  That was the second back test of PDL since current sell off started on July 7.

At this point, chances are high for SPX to sell off to test its 20 and 50 D-SMA sometime during the next couple of weeks unless companies reporting earnings this week totally blow away expectations.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT  
Short as of closes of 7/17/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

SGS Market Timer is "SHORT" as of close of Thr 7/17/2014.

SPX closed under its 20 D-SMA yesterday.  At this point a sell off to test supports at 1920 and 1900 is likely.  My plan is to add to RTS short positions as SPX back tests its 20 D-SMA, possibly today or on Monday.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL   
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

Updated for trades on 7/11/2014

 

SPX is challegining its all time high, but I believe this rally will fail and SPX sells off to test its PUL (black) around 1920 within next couple of weeks.

On Friday, I started opening my short positions (1 of 4) in SPY, QQQ and IWM.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Upside For Major Indices Is Limited

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

RTS Portfolio long positions were closed on (Fri 6/20).  RTS Portfolio is in cash now.
 

Nearly by all measure, major indices are overbought and the likelihood of a 10% to 15% correction is high especially for NAZ and RUT.  My plan is to start opening short positions in SPY, QQQ and IWM as soon as SPX breaks through its 20 D-SAM, possibly sometime late this coming week or early the following week.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.