Sunday, October 25, 2020

It's "Deal"

 SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Trump privately told donors that it would be "very tough" for GOP to hold the Senate.  If  what the Washington Post reporting is true, then my guess is that GOP and Trump have very likely reached a deal.


SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS remained unchanged at +105.  The status of SGS remains LONG.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  


My Plan

There is a good chance that we see a sell-off ahead of the election sometime this week.  My plan is to put 1/2 of my cash to work and buy the following seven stocks:

ZM, ALGN, TSLA, FDX, MELI, GM, and DOCU



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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Deal Or No Deal

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Sometime between now and the presidential election on Nov 3, if  and when it dawns on Trump that he is about to lose to Biden in a historic landslide, Trump would be looking for a deal.  My guess is that he would try to negotiate a deal with Pence and Republican leaders in the Senate, namely McConnell, Graham, and Grassley.  Below are my guesses for a deal or no deal:

Deal:
  • Trump continues with his presidential campaign
  • Trump rallies supporters to vote for Republican candidates
  • Trump resigns shortly after the election
  • Pence is sworn in as the POTUS
  • Pence issues full pardons for Trump and his family
No Deal:
  • Trump threatens to resign sometime before the election
  • Trump threatens to tell his base to stay home and not vote
  • Trump threatens to upend Coney-Barret appointment to the SC
There is very little or no chance if a deal can reached, in my opinion, simply because Trump would demand that his deal with Pence and Republicans has to be in writing.  But obviously any agreement reached by Trump, Pence, and Republicans can be only verbal, similar to the agreement reached by Nixon, Ford, and Republicans in 1974.


SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS remained unchanged at +235.  The status of SGS remains LONG.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened a new long position (another 5%) in GLD.  For now, I'm staying on the sideline with my remaining 70% in cash.  



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opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, October 11, 2020

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 9, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS is +235.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to LONG.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  


My Plan

Despite SGS being long, for now I'm staying on the sideline with 75% in cash.  I still have long positions  (25% of total capital) in GLD, SLV, and GBTC.  Also thinking about putting more money into GLD.



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opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, October 4, 2020

Mother Of All Chaos Is Likely

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Sep 25, 2020
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


There is a reasonable chance that Trump's condition deteriorates, he is intubated, and put on a ventilator.  If Trump, while he is conscious and capable, does not issue a "temporary transfer of presidential power to Vice POTUS" notification to the Congress, then the mother of all chaos would breakout until Pence is installed as "the acting POTUS" under 25th Amendment of the US Constitution.  That might take hours to days, during which indices very likely drop significantly.


SGS Market Timer

As of close of last Friday, the value of SGS is +47.  The status of SGS remains NEUTRAL.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for next week are shown above.  


My Plan

Per my plan, I closed my QQQ and SPY long positions early last week.  I still have long positions  (25% of total capital) in GLD, SLV, and GBTC

With SGS remaining NEUTRAL, it's best to be defensive and hold a large cash position.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.