Under The Hood

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As of close last Friday, as shown above, SPY has retraced back more than half of its decline from its all-time high (479) to its low of last October (348).  Despite the rally last week, under the hood things are rather bearish as SGS put in lower values. 

At this point, one of the two following scenarios is going to happen:

(1) The boarder market rallies as SPY breaches its 50%-61.8% Fib resistance zone and SGS puts in higher values.

(2) Big market cap stocks sell off as SPY breaches its uptrend line (red), SGS puts in lower values, and indices sell off to test their October 2022 lows.  

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/28), the value of SGS was calculated to be -168.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

No change, I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.     

Big Bad Bear Flag

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As of close last Friday, as shown above, SPY has retraced back half of its decline from its all-time high (479) to its low of last October (348).  Also, on its weekly chart above, a big bad bear flag has been formed.  There is a good chance that SPY start to decline again due to poor earnings reports this week, breaching its lower price channel and confirming the bear flag.  In that case, SPY very likely declines to test its last October low in the next couple of weeks.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/21), the value of SGS was calculated to be -98.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

The performance of SGS for 2023 has been terrible.  That's due to the fact that SGS is a trending following and lagging timer.  Trend following timers fall apart by whipsawing in and out of the market when there is no trend in the market.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

No change, I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.     

So Far So Good

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Last week a couple of big banks (JPM, C) beat their Q1 earnings and reported a rosy outlook for 2023.  So far so good and if most companies follow suit, there would be an excellent chance that we see a sizable rally for indices in the next few weeks.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/13), the value of SGS was calculated to be -107.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

No change, I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.    

Between Rock And Hard Place

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The Fed is caught between a rock and hard place.  They need to ease up on rate hikes or risk more bank failures.  They also need to abandon their 2% wage inflation goal or risk sending the economy into a deep and long recession.  At this point chances are good that the Fed does one or two more 25 basis point rate increases, then cuts rates later this year if economy slows down significantly. 

In a week or so, companies start posting their Q1 earnings and outlook for the rest of 2023.  Most companies very likely meet or exceed their expected earnings but damp down their outlook.  In that case, indices would sell off and possibly test their lows of last October. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/6), the value of SGS was calculated to be -173.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.   

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday March 31, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/31), the value of SGS was calculated to be -27.  The status of SGS changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change since last week

 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.