Sunday, September 17, 2017

3Q Earnings And Forecast Will Set The Path Forward

SGS  Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of the close of September 8, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS advanced higher and closed above its ADL last week.  That's highly bullish and signals that chances are good that indices continue their advance higher.



Major indices advanced higher every day last week. At this point, chances are good that major indices continue their advance this coming week. 

My Plan

Per my plan, I closed all SDS long positions last week. I'm going to watch the market this coming week and see how 3Q earning reports are shaping up.  I'm watching for any earning misses and pessimistic forecast.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, September 9, 2017

A Volatile Week Is Ahead ... SGS Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of the close of September 8, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS is LONG as of the close of last Friday.



Last Tuesday SPX sold off and tested its W-DTL, chances are high that SPX would retest that support sometime this coming week. If W_DTL support fails and SPX closes below 2445 then SPX very likely would sell-off to test 2400.

My Plan

My plan to close my two positions in SDS sometime this coming week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Critical Week Is Ahead ... SGS Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of September 1, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS advanced last week, crossed its DTL and turned positive. SGS is NEUTRAL as of the close of last Friday.  If SGS remain positive and above its DTL by the close of this coming Friday, then it would turn "LONG".  


The status of SGS changes only on a Friday in order to minimize "whipsaw" that is associated with a trend following timer.


Last Monday night when SPX futures were down 20 points, it looked like that all indices were in for an extremely ugly day on Tuesday and the start of a couple of weeks of heavy selling.  SPX gapped down at the open on Tuesday, it started to head lower, but then it rocketed back up and continued to rally for the next four days on the back of short covering and dip buying.

As of the close of last Friday, data below shows how far major indices have retraced their recent sell-off from their all-time highs:

SPX: 86% of its -3% sell-off
DJI: 76% of its  -3% sell-off
DJT: 51% of its -8% sell-off
NAZ: 96% of its -4% sell-off
RUT: 62% of its -7% sell-off
OEX: 85% of its -3% sell-off
NDX: 106% of its -4% sell-off

It is interesting that the two indices (DJT and RUT) that sold off the most have had the least retracement.  This is not indicative of a healthy bull market in my opinion.

My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my second and final position in SDS last Tuesday at the open.  Now that SGS has turned NEUTRAL, my plan is close my SDS positions sometime this coming week.  Should the battle of words between the two top narcissists of the planet earth escalate and indices start to sell-off significantly on Tuesday morning, I would keep my SDS positions.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, August 26, 2017

SPX Very Likely Tests Critical Support

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of August 18, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS advanced last week but still closed below zero for the week, signaling more selling ahead. 




SPX closed above its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) but still below its ARL.  Chances are high that SPX sells off for the next couple of weeks to test support, initially at its PUL-3 and ASL around 2400, and then should that support fail, at its 50 W-SMA around 2300.

At this point, chances are high that the sell-off since SPX 2490 ends around SPX 2400.

My Plan

My plan is to open my second SDS position early next week should start to trade below support at SPX 2435 (last Thursday's low).


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, August 19, 2017

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT ... Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of August 18, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS declined last week and closed below zero for the week.  SGS is now "SHORT". Chances are high that indices start to sell off aggressively for the next couple of weeks.




SPX closed below its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) for the week which is quite bearish.  Chances are high that SPX sells off for the next couple of weeks to test support, initially at its PUL-2 and ASL around 2370, and then should that support fail, at its 50 W-SMA around 2300. 

My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my first position of two in SDS last week.  My plan is to open my second SDS position when SPX rallies up to back tests its DTL.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, August 13, 2017

An Ugly Week Is Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of August 4, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Last week SGS accelerated its decline, closed blew the critical value of 50 for the week, and the lowest since the election.  SGS is now signaling more aggressive selling ahead. 


Last Thursday, SPX found support at its W-DTL (13 W-EMA).  Chances are high that support gets tested and fails early this coming week.  Should that happen, SPX would sell-off more to test supports at its ASL and PUL-2 somewhere between 2400 and 2375.

My Plan

Per my plan, I closed my long positions in SPY, SSO, and UPRO on Tuesday.

I believe chances are high that SGS turns "SHORT" as of the close of this coming Friday. My plan is to open my first position of two in SDS early this coming week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of August 4, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Despite DJI reaching new all-time highs, the broader market declined with increasing number of new lows and decreasing number of new highs for both NYSE and NASDAQ.  SGS continued its decline last week and closed below its DTL for the week.  As of the close last Friday, SGS is "NEUTRAL". 


Last week DJI rallied while all other four major indices (SPX, NAZ, RUT, and DJT) declined. This type of divergence in an aging bull market is never a good sign.

The rally that started in early 2016 (from SPX 1810) is very likely has reached or about to reach its peak (2500 +/- 1%). Chances are good that SPX enters into a 5% trading range (2500 to 2350) for a couple of months until the shit show in DC ends one way or another.   

My Plan

I'm planning to close my long positions in SPY, SSO, and UPRO sometime this coming week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

The Market That Can't Be Dragged Down Will Go Up

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of June 30, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS declined last week but it's still DTL and touching its ADL on a back test.  Chances are good that indices go higher this coming week to set more all-time highs.


Last week SPX, NAZ, RUT, and DJI put in fresh all-time highs. Barring any bad political news and chaos, indices should advance higher this coming week.

My Plan

I'm planning to do my third and last buy in UPRO sometime this coming week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Next Week Is Critical

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of June 30, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS advanced higher again last week. It's now above its DTL and touching its ADL.  There is a possibility that ADL pushes SGS down.

Next week is critical and there is a possibility that Trump/Russia investigation take a bad turn for the President.  Should that happen, chances are good that we see a significant sell-off in indices.



Last week SPX, NAZ, RUT put in fresh all-time highs. Barring any bad political news and chaos, indices should advance higher this coming week.

My Plan

Per my plan, I did my second buy (SSO) of three buys last Monday.  I'm watching the news out of Washington to see if it would wise to close long positions and move back into cash.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.