Sunday, May 20, 2018

Indices Are Coiled

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday May 11, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Major indices are coiled up to make a big move in one direction or the other.  There is an excellent chance that major indices follow the small-cap index (RUT), FTSE 100 (UKX) and  reach new fresh all-time highs between now and early summer.

SGS continued its advance higher last week and it is now well in "LONG" territory which is bullish and signals higher prices ahead.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

Per my plan I opened my third and final long position in QQQ.  Links for my current and past long-term portfolios are shown below.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, May 12, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday May 11, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


The Middle East tinderbox might blow up this coming week, causing a sharp sell-off of financial markets. That sell-off would be a good buying opportunity. 

SGS advanced past +50 on Thursday and on Friday SGS changed its status from NEUTRAL to LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm planning to open my 3rd and final long position in QQQ as SPX sells off to test its 50 D-SMA around 2670 early this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Major Indices Are Ready To Go Higher

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


A correction in time happens when indices move sideways for an extended period.  We are currently are in such a period.  However, there are bullish signs indicating that the correction that started in late January has run its course in terms of both price and time.  These signs are bullish divergences in volume, indicators, breadth, and internals as indices tested lows of early February time and time again.

SGS remained in the NEUTRAL range(+/- 50) last week. There is a good chance that SGS advances higher and changes its status to LONG by Friday. 


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still planning to open my third and final long position in QQQ as soon as SGS goes above +50.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Hello President Pence

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



Earlier this month I wrote that financial markets would soon start to ignore Trump and the chaos he unleashes on daily basis.  I think we are there now.  Not only markets are ignoring him and his tweets but they're also predicting his resignation sometime in the next 12 months. 


The correction that started in late January was over in terms of its price (340 points or 12% for SPX) on February 9  but it still continued and corrected in time until April 2 as indices tested their February lows with bullish divergences in volume, technical  indicators, breadth, and internals.  Chances are high that indices are now going higher on the back of a new bull leg that started on April 2. For SPX, it's very likely that we see a rally until early summer as SPX challenges and takes out its all-time high (2872).


After advancing every day two weeks ago, SGS declined every day last week expect on Friday when, despite neutral indices, SGS advanced significantly.  That is bullish and signals that higher prices are ahead for indices.. 


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still planning to open my third and final long position in QQQ sometime this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Indices Will Push Higher Unless #OrangeSwan

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



The financial meltdown of 2008 is commonly referred to as a "black swan event". An orange swan event, would refer to a major but unforeseen crisis, including a significant correction of major indices, due directly or indirectly to an action taken by Donald Trump. For example, if Trump orders an attack on a Middle Eastern country that could easily escalate into a direct confrontation between American and Russian forces, causing oil, gold and interest rates spike dramatically higher over night. I hope not.

Barring an orange swan event, chances are good that indices push higher between now and early summer to challenge their recent all-time highs and much higher.


After rallying strongly earlier in the week, SPX sold off on Thursday and Friday. By the end of the week, SPX closed below its 50 D-SMA. Chances are good; however, that SPX rallies this coming week to test important resistance levels at its ARL, TDL and even PDL-1. 

SGS advanced significantly last week and it is close now to change its status from "NEUTRAL" to "LONG".  SGS is signaling higher prices ahead.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still planning to open my third and final long position in QQQ sometime this coming week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must



Sorry for a very brief blog post this weekend.  I had too much going on this weekend.


My Plan

My plan is stay with my long QQQ positions.  SGS is now NEUTRAL.  My plan to do my 3rd and final buy once SGS crosses zero.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Indices Are At Or Near A Bottom

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday March 29, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must



The chaos that is unleashed on daily basis by Trump is keeping indices from rallying strongly to challenge their all-time highs.  It seems the chaos presidency is not going to end anytime soon and the market is starting to ignore it all and does what it needs to do.

On Friday, SPX successfully tested its 200 D-SMA.  Despite a nearly 3% sell-off by major indices, panic selling of indiviual issues was quite limited.  That is highly bullish and signals that indices are at or very close to a bottom. 

There is a good chance that SPX rallies on the back of good Q1 earnings and forecasts to test its 50 D-SMA and PDL-1 in the next couple of weeks.

SGS advanced significantly on Friday despite a nearly 3% sell-off by major indices.  That divergence is highly bullish and signals that higher prices are head.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

My plan is stay with my long QQQ positions.  A close below 200 D-SMA on a weekly basis would be a game changer.  In that case, I would close long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Monday, April 2, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday March 29, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must



Except for Thursday, SGS declined everyday last week to and ended below -50.  SGS status changed from "NEUTRAL" to "SHORT".  

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

My plan to close my QQQ long position as SPX back-tests its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) around 2680.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday March 23, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


The WH chaos goes on and  causes high market volatility.  Where and how the chaos ends is unpredictable but one thing is for sure, it won't end well for anyone or anything including financial markets.

SPX sold off sharply on Thursday and Friday last week and closed near its low for the week which was within around 2% of the low reached on Friday February 9.  There is a good chance that SPX is testing that low now and if successful, it would rally to test resistance at its TDL and PDL-1.  If testing of 2532 level fails, then SPX very likely would sell-off significantly more to around 2470.


SGS declined everyday last week to and ended up at -43.20 on Friday and changed its status from "LONG" to "NEUTRAL".  

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my second of 3 long positions in QQQ on Tuesday.  With SGS turning NEUTRAL, my plan is to close those two long positions sometime next week.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Indices Are To Push Higher

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, March 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


The chaos that is unleashed on daily basis by the White House is keeping indices from rallying strongly to challenge their all-time highs.  It seems the chaos presidency is not going to end anytime soon and the market is starting to ignore it all and does what it needs to do.

On Thursday and Friday last week, SPX hovered around its 50 D-SMA.  Despite lackluster performance later in the week, chances are high that we see SPX rally on the back of a dovish FOMC statement this coming Wednesday.  There is a well-formed bull flag (shown in blue) on SPX daily chart above. 

SGS advanced earlier in the week and declined on Thursday and Friday.  SGS is well above +50 and its status is still LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my first of 3 long positions in QQQ on Wednesday.  My plan is to open the 2nd long position in QQQ sometime early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, March 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


Most major indices rallied strongly last week and closed well above their 50 D-SMA's.  SGS also closed above +50 on Friday and its status changed from SHORT to LONG.  All bullish.

On Friday, SPX opened above its 50 D-SMA and continued to rally right into the close.  As shown above, there is an good chance that SPX back-tests its 50 D-SMA sometime this week before heading higher to test its PDL-1. Should back-testing of 50 D-SMA or testing of PDL-1 fail, there is a chance that SPX tests trend line support around 2670 later this week or early next week.


SGS advanced higher than +50 on Friday and changed its status from SHORT to LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX are shown above.


My Plan

I didn't open any short positions last week.  With SGS being LONG now, my plan is to open my first of three position in QQQ sometime this week.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.