Monday, May 29, 2017

SGS Is "LONG"

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of May 26, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS went up and closed above its DTL last week, but it's still below its ADL. 


I'm not sure where indices are heading.

My Plan

I'm watching from the sideline to see of SGS would close above its ADL.  A close ADL this coming week would be bullish and I would feel comfortable opening long position at that point.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Indices Are About To Take A Big Leg Down

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of May 12, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS is now significantly below its DTL and ADL signaling more selling ahead.


Chances are good that major indices take a big leg down next week.  Support levels are shown on the chart above.

My Plan

I'm watching from the sideline.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

SGS Is "NEUTRAL"

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of May 12, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

On Friday, SGS closed below its DTL (13 D-EMA), signaling a sell-off next week.

Chances are high that SPX sells off to test supports shown on the weekly chart shown above.

My Plan

I'm watching from the sideline.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Volatility Is Returning

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


Generally speaking, things are pretty bullish and indices could go up another 10% to 15% from here before we see a sizable pullback.  There are signs, however, that point to no or limited advance in indices.  As shown in the chart above, SPX challenged its recent all-time high (2400) in the last couple of weeks twice but both times on a shrinking number of news highs s and expanding number of new lows.  That is a classic bearish divergence.

SPX unsuccessfully challenged its all-time high last week again. I expect another volatile week ahead and a possible test of its TUL and PDL-0 around 2365 and 2340, respectively.

My Plan

My plan is to open my first long position of three in SPY and QQQ sometime early on Monday.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Another Volatile Week Is Coming Up

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


Again SGS ticked higher every day last week, touched it ADL on Thursday and on Friday it ticked lower for the first time in 10 trading day.  This is all very bullish and chances of indices going much higher are good.

My Outlook

SPX unsuccessfully challenged its all-time high last week. I expect another volatile week ahead and a possible test of its TUL and DTL around 2340.

My Plan

My plan is to open my first long position of three in SPY sometime this coming week, hopefully into a sell-off to test support at 2340.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Volatility Continues And Presents A Buying Opportunity

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS ticked higher every day last week, signaling that sell-off since early March very likely has run its course.  On Thursday and Friday, SGS closed above its DTL signaling a good entry point for opening long positions. 


As shown on the chart above, while SGS is "LONG", i.e. SGS value is greater than zero, SGS crossing its DTL have been good points to open (when crossing above DLT from below) and to close (when crossing below DLT from above) long positions.

My Outlook

Chances are good that the sell-off since early March ended last and indices are heading higher to challenge their new all-time highs. I expect a volatile week ahead because of the election in France and the possibility of a government shutdown on Friday.

My Plan

My plan is to open my first long position of three in SPY sometime early this coming week.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

A Volatile Week Is Very Likely Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS ticked lower for the week, signaling more selling is very likely in the coming week.  As of the close of Friday, all major indices (DJI, DJT, NAZ, RUT and SPX) are trading below their 50 D-SMA's. That's bearish and signals more selling ahead.

My Outlook

Bears are firmly in charge now and will push indices much lower next week.  I expect SPX to test price support at 2300 and its PUL-2 around 2260.  A close below PUL-2 on weekly basis would signal significant selling ahead.

My Plan

No change since last week, I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS continues lower and crosses its zero line and turns "SHORT", I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, April 8, 2017

Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS ticked lower for the week, signaling more selling is very likely in the coming week.

My Outlook

Bearish Case (70%): Chance are high that SPX tests its TUL (shown in pink) and W-DTL this coming week.  A daily close for SPX below 2345 would signal more selling and very likely test of price support at 2275 and PUL-2 around 2255.

Bullish Case (30%): If SPX starts trading and closes above its PDL-0, then chances would be good that SPX moves higher to challenge its recent highs.

My Plan

No change since last week, I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS continues lower and crosses its zero line and turns "SHORT", I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Indecision Is Very Likely Over

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS remained unchanged for the week, signaling that Big Money is still indecisive.  Chances are good, however, that Big Money would be forced to make a decision this coming week.  SGS would tick significantly higher or lower depending on what Big Money decides to do.

If Trump's Russia-gate starts to snowball, then we should see a sell-off, SPX testing and failing support at its TUL line, SGS crossing its zero line and turning "SHORT".

My Outlook

If Russia-gate develops legs, then chances would be high that SPX sells off to test its PUL-2 around 2250 and possibly its 50 W-SMA around 2200. Otherwise, indices would start pushing higher to challenge their recent all-time highs.

My Plan

No change since last week, I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS continues lower and crosses its zero line and turns "SHORT", I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Market On The Razor's Edge

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS ticked lower for the week, signaling more selling head.  It seems, however, that everything including financial markets, is sitting on the razor's edge and could easily fall on one side or the other.

If Trump's Russiagate starts to snowball, then we should see SGS cross its zero line and turn "SHORT". In that case, a good chunk (7% to 10%) of fluff would come out of major indices.

Short-Term (days to weeks) Outlook

SPX broke out of its narrow trading range to the downside last week.  Shorter term, chances are good that selling picks up momentum this coming week and SPX tests its 50 D-SMA around 2330 and possibly its Old-ADL around 2300 to 2260 depending on how aggressive selling becomes. 

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook

If Russiagate develops legs, then chances are hight that SPX sells off to test its PUL-2 around 2230 and possibly its 50 W-SMA around 2200. 

My Plan

No change since last week, I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS continues lower and crosses its zero line and turns "SHORT", I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

The Calm Before The Storm

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

SGS ticked higher for the third day in a row, that's bullish. If SGS closes above its DTL (shown in red), I would buy my first buy in my long portfolio (SPY).

Short-Term (days to weeks) Outlook

Shorter term, SPX is range-bound by its trendlines.  There is an excellent chance, however, that SPX exits its relatively narrow trading range soon.  I have no idea which way SPX breaks out.  I'm letting SPX make the first move and then I'll follow. 

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook

We're experiencing the calm before the storm.  I don't know which way SPX is going to breakout.  Patience.

My Plan

I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its DTL. If SGS reverses and starts to go lower, cross zero line and turns short, I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of November 11, 2016
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer


SGS continued to put in lower highs last week for the second week in a row since SPX put in a fresh all-time high (2400.98). If selling accelerates, SGS would cross zero line and turn SHORT sometime this week.

Short-Term (days to weeks) Outlook



Shorter term, despite selling since March 1, indices are still overbought.  Chances are good that SPX continues going lower this coming week and tests of its PUL-3 around 2350.

Long-Term (weeks to months) Outlook


Longer term, chances are good that SPX continues to sell-off and test its AUL around 2340 sometime this coming week and then its W-DTL around 2310.

My Plan

I am going to follow SGS and start buying SPY if SGS starts to uptick and closes above its ADL. If SGS continues to go lower and turns short, I would start opening short positions in SPX by buying SH.



SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.