Sunday, March 17, 2019

Selling Is Done, Indices Look Good

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must




SGS advanced last week and it is in "LONG" territory, confirming rally higher.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

The 60 Minutes interview with Powell was a game changer.  Per my tweet on 3/13, I did my first two buys, I bought SPY.   My plan is to do my second buy (SSO) sometime early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

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Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



As shown above on the monthly chart for SPX, SPX has been selling-off to back test its M-DTL (13 M-EMA) around 2700 before heading higher.

SGS declined last week but it still in "LONG" territory.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

My best guess is that the sell-off that started last week continues. I'm still in cash and waiting for an opportunity to do my first of two buys in the following seven stocks:

1. XLNX
2. CDNS
3. DHR
4. BA
5. INCY
6. INTU
7. LLY


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

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Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Rally In Stocks Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



As shown above, SPX closed February 2019 well above its M-DTL on its monthly chart.   In the post 2008 crash financial era, SPX has continued its rally for at least eight consecutive months in four out of five instances when SPX had closed above its M-DTL for two consecutive months after a 15% to 20% sell-off.

SGS advanced last week and pushed further into "LONG" territory.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

On Friday, I closed my long positions and took profit.  I still expect a sell-off for a day or two as SPX tests its D-DTL and 200 D-SMA around 2750 sometime this week.  My plan is to open the first of two long positions into that sell-off.  I'm planning to buy the following seven stocks:

1. XLNX
2. CDNS
3. DHR
4. BA
5. INCY
6. INTU
7. LLY


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 24, 2019

Indices Look Good

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SPX continued its rally last week and closed well above its M-DTL as shown above.  The likelihood of SPX closing above its M-DTL for this month is high and that would make the close for this month the second consecutive close above M-DTL.  In the post 2008 crash financial era, SPX has continued its rally for at least eight consecutive months in four out of five instances when SPX had closed above its M-DTL for two consecutive months after a 15% to 20% sell-off.

SGS advanced last week and pushed further into "LONG" territory.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

I expect a sell-off for a day or two as SPX tests its D-DTL and 200 D-SMA around 2745 sometime this week.  My plan is still to open the third and final long positions into that sell-off, hopefully early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 17, 2019

SPX 2800 Is Critical

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SPX has rallied strongly from its December low and reached near 2800 which is right at its  Fib. ratio 76.4% retracement.  There is a good chance that SPX sells-off this week to test its M-DTL around 2700 before rallying higher.

For the rally to continue, it is critical that SPX overcomes resistance at 2800 and advances higher to close substantially above its M-DTL (currently at 2700).


SGS advanced last week and pushed further into "LONG" territory.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Per may plan I opened the second of three long positions last Thursday. My plan is to open the third and final positions as SPX is initially pushed down by resistance at 2800.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Rally Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



So far this month, as show above, SPX has successfully punched through strong resistance by its M-DTL and PDL-2 on its monthly chart.  Last week, SPX back-tested that resistance and cleared the way to continue its rally. 

SGS advanced last week and changed its status from "NEUTRAL" to "LONG" as of the close of Friday.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Per may plan I opened my first of three long positions last Monday. My plan is to open my second long position of three in the following 10 stocks (equal $ amount) sometime early this week:

1. XLNX
2. WDAY
3. INCY
4. EWZ
5. AVGO
6. CHTR
7. PG
8. SBUX
9. BA
10. ADI

I'm also selling REGN and replacing it with SBUX on Monday.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 3, 2019

The Fork In The Road

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Feb 1, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



Last month, SPX rallied 15% from its recent late December (2346) low, and as of the close of last Friday, it retraced 61.8% of its 2018 last quarter decline. SPX and other major indices have reached a fork in the road.  My analysis shows that there is a good chance that indices continue their rally and advance higher.

SGS advanced sharply last week and changed its status from "SHORT" to "NEUTRAL" as of the close of last Friday.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

My plan is to open my first long position of three in the following 10 stocks (equal $ amount) sometime early this week:

1. XLNX
2. WDAY
3. INCY
4. EWZ
5. AVGO
6. CHTR
7. PG
8. REGN
9. BA
10. ADI

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

To Retest Or Not To Retest

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 5, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


There are many opinions on whether or not December 2018 lows for indices are going to be retested.  I believe that major US indices have reached a fork in the road, one path is to advance higher to challenge recent all-time highs and the other path is to sell-off to retest December lows and possibly to continue going lower.  Nobody knows for sure which path indices would take but the next four trading days will be very telling.

Last December, as shown in SPX monthly chart above, SPX broke through its M-DTL and began trading below it.  Since then, M-DTL, which had been acting as a strong support for SPX since early 2016, has become a strong resistance.  Last Monday M-DTL stopped the recent rally that started in late December.

There are four trading days left in January.  If SPX cannot close, by at least 0.5%, above its M-DTL (currently at 2683) in those four days, there would be a greater than 66% chance that December lows would get retested sometime in early February.  Should that retest fail, SPX would very likely sell-off more to test PUL-2 and PUL-1 supports around 2300 to 2200.


SGS advanced sharply last week.  Should rally since December lows continue, there would be a high chance that SGS turn NEUTRAL or even LONG by week's end.  


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

I'm still in cash and looking for an entry to open my first of three long positions. My plan is to do my first of three buys early this week in SPY (30%) and the following stocks (10% each):

1. WDAY
2. LULU
3. AVGO
4. XLNX
5. VRTX
6. UNP
7. SBUX 

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.