SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Dec 27, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
2024 SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 
2025 SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/27), the value of SGS was calculated to be -141 and the status of SGS changed from Short to Neutral.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the SPX this week are shown above.

My Plan

This is my last blog post. I am officially retired :).

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

SGS Market Timer Is Short

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday December 20, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/20), the value of SGS was calculated to be -261 and the status of SGS changed from Long to Short.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the SPX this week are shown above. With SGS Market Timer being Short now, there is a high likelihood that selling continues this week.

My Plan

No change since last week, I continue to remain on the sidelines until the second week of the new year. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

More Selling Is Likely Ahead

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/13), the value of SGS was calculated to be +55 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the SPX this week are shown above. The SGS value has been declining for three consecutive weeks, indicating the potential for further selling pressure ahead.

My Plan

Per my plan I closed my long positions, except for BTC, in all long-term accounts last Monday. I plan to remain on the sidelines until the second week of the new year. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Short-Term, Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/6), the value of SGS was calculated to be +270 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the SPX this week are outlined above. Short-term, indices are over bought and there is a good chance they correct either in price or time into the year's end.

My Plan

My plan is close my long position, except for my small BTC position, sometime early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Trump's Honeymoon

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/29), the value of SGS was calculated to be +374 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the SPX this week are outlined above. Barring any extreme developments, such as a full-scale tariff war, a widespread crackdown on individuals (both U.S. citizens and others), or a major conflict in the Middle East, I believe there’s a strong likelihood that indices will continue their bull run, at least through the end of Trump’s honeymoon period, potentially extending into late Q1 or early Q2 of 2025.

My Plan

No change since last week, going forward, I am going to continue to look for opportunities to add to my long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Indices Look Good But

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/22), the value of SGS was calculated to be +162 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above. The fluff surrounding Trump's election victory came off completely. Indices look good but bigger players are not putting more money to work. There is something out there that scares them. Maybe a wider war in the Middle East, maybe a big sell off in the bond market.

My Plan

Last Wednesday, I put 25% of cash to work on and bought XLF (10%), SPY (10%), BCT (5%), and last Thursday I added to XLF (10%) and SPY (10%) positions. Going forward, I am going to continue to add to my long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Staying Fully In Cash

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/15), the value of SGS was calculated to be +138 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above. The fluff surrounding Trump's election victory has started to come off; I think there is more selling ahead.

My Plan

I didn't open any new positions last week. For now, I'm staying fully in cash.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Time To Put Cash To Work Again

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/8), the value of SGS was calculated to be +379 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above. Trump won the election decisively and chances are good that the Trump rally continues for a while.

My Plan

I'm planning to put 40% my cash to work, buying SPY, QQQ, IWM, and SMH (10% each) sometime this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Harris Is Very Likely The Next POTUS

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (11/1), the value of SGS was calculated to be +23 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above. In the week leading up to both elections with Trump on the ballot, SPX (Monday's Open to Friday's Close) dropped 2.1% in 2016 and 4.6% in 2020. Last week SPX dropped 1.8%.

Presidential Election Scenarios:

• 70% Chance: Harris wins decisively. SPX rallies to a new all-time high, reaching 6,000 and potentially higher.
• 25% Chance: The outcome is unclear for days or weeks. SPX experiences a significant sell-off, dropping 10% to 20%.
• 5% Chance: Trump wins decisively. SPX remains volatile, trading sideways for an extended period.

My Plan

No change from last week, I'm planning to remain in cash at least until the presidential election is resolved and the next U.S. President is confirmed.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Harris The Next POTUS?

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (10/25), the value of SGS was calculated to be +141 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above. In the week leading up to both elections with Trump on the ballot, SPX (Monday's Open to Friday's Close) dropped 2.1% in 2016 and 4.6% in 2020.

Israel’s actions this weekend align closely with the requests from Biden and Harris, even notifying Iran in advance, similar to Iran’s approach in their own alerts to Israel before attacks. Could this cooperation indicate something significant? Does Israel view Harris as the next U.S. President?

My Plan

No change since last week, for now I'm planning to stay in cash for the rest of the year.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.   

No Change, Stayinng 100% In Cash

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (10/18), the value of SGS was calculated to be +372 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above.

My Plan

No change since last week, I plan to stay in cash for the rest of the year.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

On The Sidelines

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday August 16, 2024
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS & SGS-ST Performance Data 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (10/11), the value of SGS was calculated to be +172 and the status of SGS remains Long.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

The support and resistance levels for the current week in the SPX are shown above. Between now and the end of the year, there is a strong possibility that:

• The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could remain unresolved for weeks, or even months, after voting concludes.
  
  
• A large-scale exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran might take place, potentially escalating to the point where the United States becomes directly involved in another major regional conflict in the Middle East.

My Plan

I plan to stay in cash for the rest of the year.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.