Sunday, July 14, 2019

Earnings and Forecasts Will Make Or Break Indices

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Jun 14, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



Starting this week, markets get to assess Q2 earnings and forecasts for major companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ.  Companies are widely expected to meet their earnings but if their forecasts for future earnings are not rosy, indices would correct between 5% to 15%.  The correction could become much deeper if the US-China trade negotiations fail or a new war breaks out in the Middle East.


SGS advanced last week, confirming new all-time highs in DJI, SPX and NAZ.  That is bullish.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  As shown above, there is a giant rising wedge on the price chart for SPX. That is bearish.


My Plan

I'm watching earnings and forecasts for several companies this week.  If all rosy, my plan is to open my first of two long positions in QQQ.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Monday, July 1, 2019

Volatility Returns

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Jun 14, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


I expect a volatile July and August with indices going no where.

SGS remained flat and I expect it to whipsaw its status.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 


My Plan

No change since last week.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Iran War? For Warmongers It's Now or Never

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Jun 14, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



It's now or never for those who are pushing for a war against Iran, namely Neocons in DC, the Israeli right, Kushner,  MBS and MBZ.  Trump, for his own self-serving reasons, is against any military action but war mongers are scheming now so that a strike against Iran becomes inevitable.  I expect something major happens soon.

SGS advanced last week and confirmed new the new all-time high for SPX.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 


My Plan

Per my plan I closed my SDS positions.  I'm in cash and watching to see what happens in the Middle East.  If there is a massive strike against Iran, Iran would surely strike back and hit US, Arab, and possibly Israeli targets.  What happens after that and how we or Israel respond could bring on an all out war in the Middle East for many years to come with direct or indirect involvement of Russians and Chines.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Jun 14, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must




SGS advanced last week and closed at +68 on Friday. SGS status changed from NEUTRAL to LONG. 

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  For SPX, a close above 2900 would signal a high likelihood that rally continues to challenge recent all-time high.


My Plan

No change since last week, a daily close above 2900 would be a signal form me to close all open SDS positions.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, June 9, 2019

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Jun 7, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must




As shown on the SPX monthly chart above, SPX bounced off of its M-DTL strongly and retraced around 60% of its recent sell-off from its all-time high 2954 to 2728 recent low.  The strong rally last week was due to the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates aggressively to prevent a recession.  If the US economy is heading in to a recession, I'm not sure how cutting rates would prevent it.  The two recessions in the last 20 years (2000 to 2002 and 2008-2009) still happened despite aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.  It was the massive injection of money into the economy, via Iraq War in 2003 and QE in 2008, that ended the last two recessions.

The rally last week had all characteristics of a short-covering rally. If SPX resume its sell-off this week and dips below its M-DTL, there would be a high chance that SPX declines much more.


SGS advanced last week and closed at +29 on Friday. SGS status changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  For SPX, a close above 2900 would signal a high likelihood that rally continues to challenge recent all-time high.


My Plan

I did expect a counter-trend rally but not as strong as what was started on Tuesday and continued into close on Friday.  I expect the sell-off in indices resume soon but a close above 2900 sometime this week would be a signal form me to close all open SDS positions.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, June 2, 2019

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday May 31, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must




As shown on the SPX monthly chart above, SPX closed for the month of May right on its M-DTL.  There is an excellent chance that selling that started in May continues into June, pushing SPX down to test its PUL-3 at around 2450.  A monthly close below M-DTL in June would be highly bearish, signalling significant more selling is head.   

SGS declined last week and closed at -91 on Friday. SGS status changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Anticipating the change of SGS status from NEUTRAL to SHORT, I opened my first two of four long positions in SDS on Thursday and Friday.  I expect an ugly week ahead.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 26, 2019

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday May 24, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


After selling-off around 20% late last year, SPX rallied to a new all-time high (2954) on May 1.  SPX is very likely in a 40% to 60% retracement of its latest up leg (2346 to 2954).  I expect SPX to find a bottom around 2700 in the next couple of weeks.

A conflict with Iran would be of course a game changer.  In that case, I expect SPX to correct substantially, my guess would be at least 50%.


SGS declined last week and closed at -7 on last Friday. SGS status changed from LONG to NEUTRAL.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Anticipating the change of SGS status from LONG to NEURAL, I closed all my QQQ positions last Tuesday. SPX is about to test its 200 D-SMA around 2775 on Tuesday or Wednesday. If SPX breaks through its 200 D-SMA and closes below it, I would open first of two positions in SDS.  I expect SGS to turn from NEUTRAL to SHORT by the close of this week.
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

China Trade War Versus Iran All Out War

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



A major military conflict with Iran worries the market substantially more than the trade war with China.  The outcome of a trade war with China is known, very  likely  a trade agreement in which wildly consumed Chinese products would be subjected to 5% to 10% tariff, paid by the US importers and passed on to the US consumers. The new tariff would be a flat tax, in a way a federal sales tax.  The outcome of a conflict with Iran, on the other hand, is unknown.  It could be just one or two missile strikes by the US with very little or no response from Iran.  It could also spiral into an all out war, possibly nuclear war, in the Middle East. 

SGS declined last week and got closer to turning from "LONG" to "NEUTRAL" but managed to close above +50. SGS status is still "LONG".


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

I am watching the situation with Iran.  If it looks like that Bolton and Cotton (both serve their Israelis and Saudis masters) are about to push us into a war, then I would close all long positions. 
twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.