Sunday, December 8, 2019

QE means BTFD

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



Simply put, so long as the Fed's new QE money finds its way into equity market, indices grind higher.  Tariff drama will cause sell-offs but those dips should be bought. 


SGS declined for most of the last week but on Friday it advanced, confirming the big rally on Friday.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this are shown above.

My Plan

Last Tuesday SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Short and I opened a position in SPXU.  On Friday SGS-ST changed its status from Short to Neutral and I closed my position in SPXU.  An hour later SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Long  and I opened  a new position is SPXL.
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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, December 1, 2019

US / China Trade Negotiation Is Coming To A Head

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



China wants the U.S. to scrap tariffs imposed since 2018, with a December 15 deadline looming on a 15 percent tariff hike on "another $160 billion of goods."  But the two sides can't even agree on where a deal signing should take place.  I have no idea what will happen but without a deal indices very likely sell-off.

SGS advanced last week, confirming all-time highs for DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  That is bullish and signals the rally very likely continues if a trade deal is reached with China.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.

My Plan

SGS-ST changed its status to neutral on Tuesday. I closed my one position in SPXL. I'm watching SGS-ST.
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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Indices Are Looking Good But Internals Are Weakening

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



The uptrend in indices is still intact but the lack of progress in trade negotiations with China is beginning to take its toll.

For the second week in a row, SGS declined and didn't confirm new all-time highs for DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  In order for indices to resume their rally, the divergence by SGS must end soon.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.

My Plan

SGS-ST is still long but getting close to change its status to neutral. I'm still long (100% of capital) in SPXL.
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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

The Grind Up Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Barring an unforeseen dire financial or political event, indices will grind higher as the new QE money finds its way into equities.


SGS declined last week and didn't confirm new all-time highs for DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  I expect SGS to advance this week. 


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.  I expect RUT and DJT to follow DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, NDX and put in new all-time highs soon.

My Plan

Last Friday SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Long.  I opened my one and only long position in SPXL.
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opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, November 9, 2019

QE = Indices Grinding Higher and Higher

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


As the Fed's latest QE money ($60 billion per month) finds its way into equities, indices keep on grinding higher and higher. The Fed is going to continue on with their latest QE at least until end of 2020-Q2 and hence it's all clear between now and then.  BTFD.


SGS advanced last week confirming new all-time highs for DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.  I expect RUT and DJT to follow DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, NDX and put in new all-time highs soon.

My Plan

I'm using SGS-ST to manage my long-term money accounts. Last Thursday, SGS-ST changed from long to neutral (overbought condition was triggered). I closed my SPXL position. I'm in cash waiting for SGS-ST next signal, either long or short.
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opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, November 2, 2019

Santa Arrives Early With A QE Gift

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



As the market enter into the most seasonally bullish period of the year with a QE tail wind, indices have no where to go but higher.  

SGS advanced last week confirming new all-time highs for SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.  


My Plan

Per my plan I closed my position in SSO on Wednesday as SGS-ST turned neutral from long. Then on Friday I opened a new position (one position with 100% of capital) in SPXL as SGS-ST turned long from neutral.  I'm using SGS-ST to short-term trade all long-term accounts.
twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, October 26, 2019

QE-FE Finds Its Way Into The Market

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



It took the market only a couple of days to figure out how to bring the money injected into the economy by the Fed's new QE program into equities. Since 2009, as shown on the chart above, once the QE money finds its way into equities, indices rally. With $60 billion coming in every month between now and end of June 2020, indices have no where to go but higher.  

SGS advanced last week and changed its status to LONG.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.  


My Plan

Per my plan I opened a new long position in SSO on Tuesday (one position with 100% of capital).  I'm using SGS-ST to short-term trade all long-term accounts.
twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, October 20, 2019

The 2020 Triangle Dance

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Oct 4, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



There are three parties involved in the 2020 presidential election campaign, namely DNC, RNC, and Trump.  Below is my take on how these parties are trying to achieve their objectives prior to the 2020 election:
  • DNC - DNC is trying to make sure that Biden is the Democratic nominee.  In 2015 DNC was fully behind Clinton and did all that it could  to stop the momentum of Sander's campaign.  In 2019, again DNC is doing its best to make sure that Warren and Sander don't pick up any momentum and pull substantially ahead of Biden in polls and fund raising.  For example, in the last Democratic debate, DNC relaxed participation requirements to have more candidates (12 candidates) on the stage  than they did in the previous debate (10 candidates).  For the next debate in November, DNC is planning for 14 candidates to "qualify" to participate.  By having more candidates on the stage, DNC's corrupt intention is to minimize publicity and exposure for Warren and Sanders.

    As for the 2020 presidential election, Democrats are hoping that their nominee faces Trump.  They will surely impeach Trump but have no plan to remove him since Trump's removal would mean the Democratic nominee would face a prominent Republican like Romney or Kasich. In order to give little campaign time to a possible Republican nominee other than Trump, Democrats will prolong the impeachment process  as long as they can, without risking the loss of public interest.

  • RNC - With Trump as the head of RNC, Republicans are in between a rock and a hard place. They realize that with Trump as their nominee in the 2020 election, not only they would lose the White House, but they could also lose the Senate. There is a good chance that Republicans decide to remove Trump and take their chances in the election with either Romney or Kasich. They're hoping that the House impeaches Trump by Thanksgiving and he is removed shortly after.  I'm looking to see if McConnell moves to pass a rule change resolution so senators could vote in a secret ballot to remove Trump. 

    Republicans are also eyeing how Biden is doing in polls and fund raising. If it becomes clear that Biden wouldn't be the likely Democratic nominee, Trump's removal would become even more crucial for Republicans.

  • Trump -  Knowing the erratic and chaotic nature of Trump, it's hard to predict what he would do between now and the election.  Assuming Trump survives the pending impeachment and removal by the Congress, there is a good chance that he would resign if he sees that he is going to lose his second term election in a landslide.  If he chooses to resign, Trump being Trump, he would do it in a way that it would inflict maximum pain and damage to the Republican party and their replacement nominee.  That is not going unnoticed by Republicans.

SGS advanced last week but still remained NEUTRAL.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  


My Plan

Last week, per my plan I closed my long SPXU positions.  My long-term portfolio is down around 13% this year, ouch, my worst year ever. 

Going forward, I believe SPX would be trading in a 1000 point trading range (roughly 2200 to 3200) for the next few years.  If SPX falls out of that range, it could go substantially lower to test support at its peaks prior to 2008 crash around 1575-1550.  My plan is to short-term (hours to days) trade my long-term accounts using SGS-ST (One of these days, I'm going to do on SGS Short-Term explaining how SGS-ST works. In short, it measures the total area between 13 and 39 EMA's in SPX hourly chart.  It also measures the growth rate of that area to determine overbought and oversold levels).  I'm still going to use SGS to decide which SPX ETF's is used for short-term trades.
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opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.