Sunday, May 22, 2022

Bear Market Rallies Are Vicious

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Generally speaking, in a bull market, sell-offs are sizable but short-lived with no follow through. In a bear market, rallies are sizable but short-lived and with no follow through.  The rally last Friday looked to be nothing but a typical bear market rally.  It was sizable but we have to see if it has any follow through early next week. 

Friday's late day short-covering rally was due to what James Bullard said on Fox Business regarding economic growth for the rest of this year and next.  He expressed a very bullish outlook for the economy and employment.  He was expecting the US economy to grow at 3% or higher and he saw no chance of recession this year or next despite aggressive rate hikes by the Fed.  Of course someone like Bullard, a super hawk, has to talk like that to justify his super aggressive stand against inflation.  

If the Fed goes through with their QT plan (around $50 Billion in June, $50 Billion in July, and $100 Billion per month starting in August) while raising rates, they would run both the stock market and the economy into the ground.  Something has to give soon and my bet is that the Fed will stop its aggressive QT.  Otherwise, the entire financial system would start to come apart once losses in SPX exceeds 30%.


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/20), the value of SGS was calculated to be -926 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 


My Plan

My plan is to stay with my positions for now. 




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opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

It would be Silly

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Since late 2008, when Ben Bernanke put Modern Monetary Theory to work to save the US and global economy, every multi-month rally in indices was caused by implementation of a new round of "Quantitative Easing" (QE) by the Federal Reserve.  Conversely, with the exception of the decline due to Covid-19 in 2020, every multi-month sell-off in indices happened between the time that the current round of QE ended and a new round QE started.  So if all of that QE (from Oct 2008 to Feb 2022, with mother of all QE's in 2020) caused the dramatic rise in indices, now that there is no more QE, and in fact the Fed is about to start a Quantitative  Tightening (QT) program in June while raising interest rates, it would be silly to expect indices to go higher.  

There is an excellent chance that indices continue to go lower until the Fed reverses course and, at the minimum, stops its QT program all together. 


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/13), the value of SGS was calculated to be -927 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 


My Plan

My plan is to stay with my positions for now. 




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, May 8, 2022

It's Not Higher Interest Rates, It's QT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Last Wednesdays the Fed announced details for their plan to reduce the Fed's balance sheet (a.k.a Quantitative Tightening, QT).  According to that plan, in June Fed's primary dealers are to sell $47.5 billions of Fed's assets that they are holding in trust, in July they are to sell another $47.5 billions, and starting in August, Fed primary dealers are to sell $95 billions of Fed's assets every month.  

That is an aggressive QT plan that will force Fed's primary dealers to sell some of equities they had bought using the margin created by assets they are holding in trust for the Fed.  As primary dealers unwind their equity positions to meet margin requirements, indices suffer; and that suffering will continue until the Fed is forced to either end its QT or significantly moderate it in a few months due to continued sell-off in equity and bond markets. 


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/6), the value of SGS was calculated to be -1545 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  On Wednesday a lower than expected CPI (year-over-year) could caused a monster counter-trend rally.  A consensus read (8.1%) or worse, very likely would cause significant more selling.


My Plan

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opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Sunday, May 1, 2022

Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/29), the value of SGS was calculated to be -1033 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Indices are over-sold short-term (hours to days) and there is a good chance that we see a sizable bounce early this week.  Medium-term (days to weeks), chances are good that SPX continues to sell off. 


My Plan

With SGS being SHORT, I put 35% of my cash into SDS last Wednesday.  My plan is to add to my SDS position sometime this week.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Short-term, Indices Are Oversold

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/22), the value of SGS was calculated to be --1180 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  Indices are over-sold short-term (hours to days) and there is a good chance that we see a sizable bounce early this week.  Medium-term (days to weeks), I have no idea where things are heading as emotional choppiness continues.  Longer-term (weeks to months), a buying opportunity is coming up soon.


My Plan

With SGS being SHORT, my plan is to stay in cash.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, April 17, 2022

Selling Is Very Likely Done This Week

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/14), the value of SGS was calculated to be -382 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  There is a good chance that SPX sell early this week and find a bottom or the bottom around 4350-4330.


My Plan

SGS changed its status to SHORT last Friday and the value SGS decreased everyday last week.  I closed my long position on Monday last week.  My plan is to stay in cash.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, April 10, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/8), the value of SGS was calculated to be -343 and the status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels



Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Last Wednesday I expected SGS to go LONG by Friday last week.  I put in 35% of my cash into SPY.  I'm planning to stay with that position for now.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, April 3, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 1, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (4/1), the value of SGS was calculated to be -37 and the status of SGS changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Last Wednesday I expected SGS to go LONG by Friday last week.  I put in 35% of my cash into SPY.  I'm planning to stay with that position for now.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.    

Sunday, March 27, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday March 25, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/25), the value of SGS was calculated to be -138 and the status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.  That is a disappointing number for bulls.  It indicates that indices are pushed higher via big caps while the broader market having a hard time catching up.  I think there is a good chance that we see a small sell-off next week before heading higher. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

The value of SGS didn't go above +50 last week.  I am 95% in cash and watching from the sideline.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.   

Sunday, March 20, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday March 18, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/18), the value of SGS was calculated to be -15 and the status of SGS changed from SHORT to NEUTERAL


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

My plan is to watch SGS and if its daily calculated value goes higher than +50, I would open long positions.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Sunday, March 13, 2022

Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday January 7, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/11), the value of SGS was calculated to be -858 and the status of SGS remains SHORT.  


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan I closed my long positions last Tuesday.  Looking to open short positions sometime this week.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, March 6, 2022

Ukraine / Russia Situation Is Getting Serious

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday January 7, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Both Russia and the West are issuing new threats.  Hopefully this would not end in a direct conflict between NATO and Russian forces. 


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (3/4), the value of SGS was calculated to be -741 and the status of SGS remains SHORT.  


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.


My Plan

I am watching SPX 4222.  A close below that would signal significant selling ahead.  My plan is to close my long position should SPX closes below 4222.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.