Sunday, October 21, 2018

Selling Very Likely Accelerates

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 5, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


The rebound rally from short-term oversold levels on Tuesday and Wednesday ran into strong selling on Thursday and Friday.  SPX gained only half a point for the week.  That is quite bearish and I expect selling to resume on Monday and continue at a faster pace.

The upcoming mid-term election is critical. There is a good chance that Reps lose their majority in the House but if they also lose their majority in the Senate, indices would sell-off significantly and lose most of their gains since November 2016.



SGS rebound slightly last week but on Friday it turned down and put in a lower value.  SGS is now well entrenched in the "SHORT" territory.  That signals more selling ahead, or at best a sideways move for the major indices for the next couple of weeks.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  Chances are high that the selling that started on Thursday continues this coming week.  For SPX a test of its TLS around 2630 is very likely.  A close below that level this week would signal a high likelihood of more selling to test February lows around 2530, probably by late October to early November.


My Plan

Per my plan I opened my first of two SDS long positions on Thursday.  My plan is to open my final long SDS position sometime early this week as SPX resumes selling to test 2710.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Market Predicts Defeat For Reps If Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 5, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


The monthly chart of SPX is shown above.  As highlighted in the chart, in the last 25 years, SPX corrected significantly (15% or higher) when it had traded and closed below its monthly Dynamic Trend Line (DTL, 13 M-EMA) for two consecutive months.

Last Thursday, SPX tested its DTL on its monthly chart at 2710.  If selling continues and SPX trades and closes below 2710 for October, there would be a good chance that selling continues for the rest of year, especially if Reps lose the Senate in the upcoming mid-term election. 


SGS declined substantially last week, signaling more selling ahead.

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  Chances are high that the rally that started late last Friday continues on Monday and Tuesday as indices retrace back 40% to 50% their losses.  For SPX, I expect to see 2820 to 2840 before selling resumes.

My Plan

Per my plan I closed my SDS long positions on Friday.  My plan is to open new long SDS positions sometime early this week as SPX resumes selling to test 2710.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, October 7, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Oct 5, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Changes are good that indices are on their way to test their late January and early February lows.  For SPX, a test of 2600 is likely.


SGS declined substantially last week, closed below -50 on Friday, and changed its status from NEUTRAL to SHORT.  


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan

I opened my first of three long positions in SDS on Friday.  I'm planning to add to that position sometime this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, September 30, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Sep 28, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Chances are good that indices start selling between now and the mid-term election on November 6.


SGS declined last week, closed below +50 on Friday, and changed its status from LONG to NEUTRAL.  More selling is very likely.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan
twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Rally In Major Indices Is Not Sustainable

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Aug 24, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Again, I am not sure where indices are heading. DJI and SPX put in new all-time high as the broader market deteriorated.  That's not healthy at all.


SGS declined last week but still in LONG territory.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan
twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, September 16, 2018

No Change Since Last Week

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Aug 24, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


No change since last week.


Except for Friday, SGS declined everyday last week but still in LONG territory.


My Plan
twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Indices Weaken

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Aug 24, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


I am not sure where indices are heading.



SGS declined everyday last week but still in LONG territory.



Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan
twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Monday, September 3, 2018

Indices Look Good

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Aug 24, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Indices look good.



SGS advanced last week well into LONG territory.



Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change, I'm waiting for an opportunity to open long positions in QQQ sometime this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, August 26, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Aug 24, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Indices are heading higher.


SGS advanced last week, closed above +50 on Friday, and changed its status from NEUTRAL to LONG.



Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan

My plan is to start opening long positions in QQQ sometime this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)

twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, August 19, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
LONG as of the close of Friday Aug 17, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


I'm not sure where things are heading.


SGS declined last week, closed below +50 on Friday, and changed its status from LONG to NEUTRAL.



Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan
twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

More Selling Is Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday July 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


A rough week is ahead.


SGS declined last week but remained above 50 on Friday and hence LONG.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.  

My Plan
twitter
info@balancetrading.org

#balancetrading
#OrangeSwan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.