Sunday, January 19, 2020

Indies Grind Higher To Overbought Levels

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


sgs-st Market Timer Status:  long 
sgs-st is a Short-Term (hours to days) Timer


Money from the Fed's new QE-FE (Quantitative Easing For Ever based on Modern Monetary Theory) is injected into the financial system at an unrepresented rate,  about $100 Billion per month.  So long as the Fed continues to create money out of thing air and expand its balance sheet, indices have no place to go but higher.   Dips are buying opportunities.

SGS advanced last week and confirmed new all-time highs in most major indices.  That is bullish.

Support and resistance levels for SPX are shown above.  

My Plan

sgs-st is long but getting close to overbought levels. I'm still 100% in SPXL.

Current Long-Term Portfolio
Past Long-Term Portfolios


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opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, January 12, 2020

The Coast Is Clear Until June 2020

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS-ST Market Timer Status:  Long 
SGS-ST is a Short-Term (hours to days) Timer

Fortunately cooler heads, both in the US and Iran, prevailed and an all-out war was averted last week.  Barring an unforeseen event, equities will grind higher on the back of the new QE between now and June.  Dips are buying opportunities.

SGS advanced last week and confirmed new all-time highs in most major indices.  That is bullish.

Support and resistance levels for SPX are shown above.  

My Plan

Last Wednesday SGS-ST turned from Neutral to Long and I opened one long position in SPXL.

Current Long-Term Portfolio
Past Long-Term Portfolios


twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, January 4, 2020

The Law Of Unintended Consequences

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS-ST Market Timer Status:  Neutral 
Neutral as of 1 PM Tuesday Dec 24, 2019
SGS-ST is a Short-Term (hours to days) Timer

Neither the US nor Iran wants a war but the law of unintended consequences might soon dictate one in the Persian Gulf. If an all out war breaks out, the global everything bubble that has been inflated by central banks around the world in the last 11 years, would surely pop.  That would send the US and the global economy into a deep recession if not a depression.


After reaching an over-bought level last week, SGS declined this week, signalling that the sell-off that started on Friday very likely continues for another week or two.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for the coming week are shown above.  


My Plan

SGS-ST is still Neutral.  I'm in cash and waiting to see which way SGS-ST turns.


Current Long-Term Portfolio
Past Long-Term Portfolios


twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, December 28, 2019

Fed's New QE Is Massive

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS-ST Market Timer Status:  Neutral 
Neutral as of 1 PM Tuesday Dec 24, 2019
SGS-ST is a Short-Term (hours to days) Timer

Since last October the Fed has been injecting about $120 billions of dollars per month into the banking REPO.  Per direction from the Fed, Fed agents continue to buy short-term US treasuries bills in order to keep short-term rates from exploding higher.  I don't know what is going on but there are important questions that need to be answered soon:
  • Why intervention at such a high rate is needed? Maybe it's because that the deficit spending is becoming  so massive that there is not enough private demand for the short-term US government debt. 
  • How long can the Fed continue injecting money into REPO? $120 billions per month is not sustainable.
  • What happens when the Fed stops? The Fed plans to stop its intervention in REPO sometime in 2020-Q2.
I have no answer to those questions but so long as the Fed continues to inject more money into the financial system via its new QE, indices grind higher and higher.  BTFD.

SGS advanced this week, confirming new all-time highs for major indices.  SGS closed on Friday near 500 which signals that, short-term, indices are overbought.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for the coming week are shown above.  SPX is overbought and there is a good chance of a sell-off to test supports sometime this week.


My Plan

Last Tuesday SGS-ST changed its status from Long to Neutral. I'm in cash and waiting to see which way SGS-ST turns.

Season's Greetings & Happy New Year



Current Long-Term Portfolio
Past Long-Term Portfolios


twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, December 22, 2019

Indices Are Overbought

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Indices are overbought but they could remain overbought or become even more overbought as the Fed's new QE money ($60 Billion/Month) continues to flow into equities.


SGS advanced this week, confirming new all-time highs for major indices.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I closed my long positions in SPXL.  My plan is to open new positions sometime early in January 2020.

Season's Greetings & Happy New Year



Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)
twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Saturday, December 14, 2019

Trump vs. Xi

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


When it comes to negotiating a trade agreement between the US and China, Trump is no match for Xi.  Trump continuously breaks the most important rule of negotiating. He talks (via twitter) too much and undermines his own team at every turn.  Trump  is desperate for anything that he could call "the best deal ever" while Xi could drag the negotiations on for another year or more.  In any negotiation, the desperate side folds and accepts whatever is offered.

Chances are good that "Phase 1" agreement gets signed soon.  That would be a clear signal to financial markets that the US/China trade relationship is on its way back to the status quo that existed prior to the Trump Administration.  That is bullish.


SGS advanced this week, confirming new all-time highs for major indices.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still long in SPXL.  Indices will grind higher as trade uncertainties are lifted and the Fed's new QE money comes into equity markets.  Dips are buying opportunities.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)
twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, December 8, 2019

QE means BTFD

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



Simply put, so long as the Fed's new QE money finds its way into equity market, indices grind higher.  Tariff drama will cause sell-offs but those dips should be bought. 


SGS declined for most of the last week but on Friday it advanced, confirming the big rally on Friday.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this are shown above.

My Plan

Last Tuesday SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Short and I opened a position in SPXU.  On Friday SGS-ST changed its status from Short to Neutral and I closed my position in SPXU.  An hour later SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Long  and I opened  a new position is SPXL.
twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, December 1, 2019

US / China Trade Negotiation Is Coming To A Head

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



China wants the U.S. to scrap tariffs imposed since 2018, with a December 15 deadline looming on a 15 percent tariff hike on "another $160 billion of goods."  But the two sides can't even agree on where a deal signing should take place.  I have no idea what will happen but without a deal indices very likely sell-off.

SGS advanced last week, confirming all-time highs for DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  That is bullish and signals the rally very likely continues if a trade deal is reached with China.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.

My Plan

SGS-ST changed its status to neutral on Tuesday. I closed my one position in SPXL. I'm watching SGS-ST.
twitter
opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.