Sunday, April 15, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday April 13, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must



Sorry for a very brief blog post this weekend.  I had too much going on this weekend.


My Plan

My plan is stay with my long QQQ positions.  SGS is now NEUTRAL.  My plan to do my 3rd and final buy once SGS crosses zero.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Indices Are At Or Near A Bottom

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday March 29, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must



The chaos that is unleashed on daily basis by Trump is keeping indices from rallying strongly to challenge their all-time highs.  It seems the chaos presidency is not going to end anytime soon and the market is starting to ignore it all and does what it needs to do.

On Friday, SPX successfully tested its 200 D-SMA.  Despite a nearly 3% sell-off by major indices, panic selling of indiviual issues was quite limited.  That is highly bullish and signals that indices are at or very close to a bottom. 

There is a good chance that SPX rallies on the back of good Q1 earnings and forecasts to test its 50 D-SMA and PDL-1 in the next couple of weeks.

SGS advanced significantly on Friday despite a nearly 3% sell-off by major indices.  That divergence is highly bullish and signals that higher prices are head.


Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

My plan is stay with my long QQQ positions.  A close below 200 D-SMA on a weekly basis would be a game changer.  In that case, I would close long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Monday, April 2, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday March 29, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must



Except for Thursday, SGS declined everyday last week to and ended below -50.  SGS status changed from "NEUTRAL" to "SHORT".  

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

My plan to close my QQQ long position as SPX back-tests its W-DTL (13 W-EMA) around 2680.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday March 23, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


The WH chaos goes on and  causes high market volatility.  Where and how the chaos ends is unpredictable but one thing is for sure, it won't end well for anyone or anything including financial markets.

SPX sold off sharply on Thursday and Friday last week and closed near its low for the week which was within around 2% of the low reached on Friday February 9.  There is a good chance that SPX is testing that low now and if successful, it would rally to test resistance at its TDL and PDL-1.  If testing of 2532 level fails, then SPX very likely would sell-off significantly more to around 2470.


SGS declined everyday last week to and ended up at -43.20 on Friday and changed its status from "LONG" to "NEUTRAL".  

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my second of 3 long positions in QQQ on Tuesday.  With SGS turning NEUTRAL, my plan is to close those two long positions sometime next week.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Indices Are To Push Higher

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, March 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


The chaos that is unleashed on daily basis by the White House is keeping indices from rallying strongly to challenge their all-time highs.  It seems the chaos presidency is not going to end anytime soon and the market is starting to ignore it all and does what it needs to do.

On Thursday and Friday last week, SPX hovered around its 50 D-SMA.  Despite lackluster performance later in the week, chances are high that we see SPX rally on the back of a dovish FOMC statement this coming Wednesday.  There is a well-formed bull flag (shown in blue) on SPX daily chart above. 

SGS advanced earlier in the week and declined on Thursday and Friday.  SGS is well above +50 and its status is still LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX for the upcoming week are shown above.


My Plan

Per my plan, I opened my first of 3 long positions in QQQ on Wednesday.  My plan is to open the 2nd long position in QQQ sometime early this week.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, March 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


Most major indices rallied strongly last week and closed well above their 50 D-SMA's.  SGS also closed above +50 on Friday and its status changed from SHORT to LONG.  All bullish.

On Friday, SPX opened above its 50 D-SMA and continued to rally right into the close.  As shown above, there is an good chance that SPX back-tests its 50 D-SMA sometime this week before heading higher to test its PDL-1. Should back-testing of 50 D-SMA or testing of PDL-1 fail, there is a chance that SPX tests trend line support around 2670 later this week or early next week.


SGS advanced higher than +50 on Friday and changed its status from SHORT to LONG. 

Supports and resistances for SPX are shown above.


My Plan

I didn't open any short positions last week.  With SGS being LONG now, my plan is to open my first of three position in QQQ sometime this week.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, March 4, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday, March 2, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


Major indices sold-off around 2% last week. There is a good chance that selling continues until early to mid April, especially if Turmp chaos continues.


As shown above, there is an extremely high chance that SPX tests its February 9 low (2532) sometime in the next 10 trading days. There is also a high chance that the support around 200 D-SMA (2565) fails and SPX continues its sell-off to around 2200 between now and early to mid April. That would be a garden variety bull market correction of 20% to 25%.

SGS advanced higher early last week but then it declined below -50 by Friday and changed its status from NEUTRAL to SHORT. 

For SPX, the likelihood of a sell-off to test its February 9 low (2532) is extremely high.


My Plan

Per my plan, I closed my only SDS position on Wednesday and of course within a few minutes indices started to sell-off :(.

SGS is SHORT and my plan is to open my first of 3 positions in SDS early Monday AM.



Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 25, 2018

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday, February 23, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


As expected, indices sold-off on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday this week but on Friday they bucked their downtrend with a big rally that nearly made them whole for the week.


Despite the impressive rally on Friday, as shown above, there is a very good chance that SPX sells-off to test its February 9 low.

SGS advanced higher for this week and on Friday its status changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL. 

For SPX, the likelihood of a sell-off to test its February 9 low (2532) is still substantially higher than rallying to a new all-time high. 


My Plan

SGS is NEUTRAL.  My plan is to close my SDS position sometime early next week.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Forks In The Road Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
LONG as of the close of Friday, February 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


Trading is about understanding and determining the probabilities that exist between 0% and 100% certainties.  A trader often runs  into forks in the trading road and has to determine which path to take by assessing the probability of success versus failure.

The forks in the trading road for SPX is shown above.   There is a high likelihood that SPX sells-off to test its recent low (2532) early next week.


SGS, despite advancing every day this week, closed below -50 on Friday.  That is bearish and signals more selling ahead by indices to test their recent lows.

SPX rallied every day this week and retraced back around 60% of its losses from its all-time high (2872) to its recent low (2532) two Fridays ago.  As of the close of Friday, SPX was trading above its daily and weekly DTL (13 EMA).  That is bullish but the fact that SPX penetrated so deep into its W-DTL line and traded below that for four days raises serious doubts about the integrity of the uptrend going forward.

At this point, there is a good chance that major indices sell-off next week to test their recent lows.  Should those lows fail with heavy volume, deteriorated breadth and internals, then major indices would sell-off a lot more.


My Plan

Per my plan I closed my long positions on Wednesday and Friday.  Should indices sell-off this coming Tuesday, my plan is to open my first of three short positions in SDS.

I will tweet next week as I open short positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

SGS Market Timer is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
LONG as of the close of Friday, February 9, 2018
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


SPX broke through one support after another last week and finally bounced off of its 200 D-SMA on Friday.  Breadth and Internal data deteriorated, significantly signaling more selling ahead. 


SGS declined last week and by Friday it closed significantly below -50.  SGS status as of the close of last Friday is SHORT.


SPX found support at its 200 D-SMA and PUL-3 on Friday.  There is a good chance that the rally that started on Friday continues next week and SPX retraces back between 40% to 60% of its decline from all-time of 2872. 

My Plan

My plan is to close my long positions this coming week as SPX retraces back its decline.  Closing an open position with a loss is the most difficult skill to master in trading. A trader without that skill will never be a successful trader.  

I will tweet next week as I close long positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2018)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2008-2017)


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Is Selling Done?

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday, September 1, 2017
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer

Why Market Timing Is A Must


There is a good chance that SPX sells off another 15 to 20 points tomorrow morning and tests the support around 2740.  After that, SPX very likely rallies to test key resistance around 2800.  How SPX behaves as it tests 2800 level would tell us if selling is done or there is more to come.


SGS declined significantly last week but it is still above 50 as of the close of Friday and hence its status is still long.  That means the probability of higher prices ahead for indices is considerably higher than the probability of lower prices.


SPX found support at its PUL-6 on Friday.  There is a good chance that, after an initial panic and margin call selling on Monday morning, we see SPX rallies to test its immediate resistance at 2800.  How SPX behaves on its way to 2800 and around 2800 would tell us if the selling is done and a rally to higher prices for indices has started. In that case, we should see SGS advanced higher on Monday.

My Plan

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.