Sunday, August 7, 2022

SGS Market Timer Remains NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL  as of the close of Friday July 29, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (8/5), the value of SGS was calculated to be -12 and the status of SGS remains NEUTRAL. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  


My Plan

Except for two small crypto positions, I closed my long-term positions (SDS) earlier last week.  My plan is to stay in cash for now.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, July 31, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL  as of the close of Friday July 29, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/29), the value of SGS was calculated to be -45 and the status of SGS changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  


My Plan

With SGS turning NEUTRAL, my plan is to close my SDS positions sometime early this week.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, July 24, 2022

A Critical Week Is Ahead

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


So far earnings report and Q3/Q4 forecasts for the Tech Sector has been mixed.  This week AMZN, AAPL, META, GOOGL, QCOM, and many other technology companies are to report.  Chances are good that those reports send indices lower.


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/22), the value of SGS was calculated to be -83 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  There is a good chance that the recent low for SPX (3636) was a bottom and not the bottom for the current bear market.  SPX very likely tests 3500 level sometime last July or early August. 


My Plan

No change.  I am still planning to close my SDS positions sometime this week as SPX tests 3500.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Tech. Sector Outlook Will Make Or Break Indices

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Starting this week, technology companies report their Q2 earnings and their outlook for Q3 and Q4. Chances are good that those reports send indices lower.


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/15), the value of SGS was calculated to be -369 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  There is a good chance that the recent low for SPX (3636) was a bottom and not the bottom for the current bear market.  SPX very likely tests 3500 level sometime last July or early August. 


My Plan

I am planning to close my SDS positions sometime this week as SPX tests 3500.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Saturday, July 9, 2022

Again, No Change Since Last Post

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/8), the value of SGS was calculated to be -159 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  There is a good chance that the recent low for SPX (3636) was a bottom and not the bottom for the current bear market.  SPX very likely tests 3500 level sometime this week or next.


My Plan

I am planning to close my SDS positions sometime this week as SPX tests 3500.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Sunday, July 3, 2022

No Change Since Last Post

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/1), the value of SGS was calculated to be -575 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  There is a good chance that the recent low for SPX (3636) was a bottom and not the bottom for the current bear market.  SPX very likely tests 3500 level sometime this week or next.


My Plan

I am planning to close my SDS positions sometime this week as SPX tests 3500.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, June 26, 2022

A Bottom Or The Bottom?

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (6/24), the value of SGS was calculated to be -295 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  There is a good chance that the recent low for SPX (3636) was a bottom and not the bottom for the current bear market.  SPX very likely tests 3500 level sometime this week or next.


My Plan

I am planning to close my SDS positions sometime this week as SPX tests 3500.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, June 19, 2022

A Bottom Or The Bottom Is Near

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


There is a good chance that indices reach a bottom or the bottom for the bear market sometime early this week.  Likely support levels that could be tested this week for SPX, NDX, and RUT are listed  below:

SPX:   3,500 (SPY:    350, 50.0% Fib. Retracement)
NDX: 10,500 (QQQ: 260, 61.8% Fib. Retracement)
RUT:  1,500 (IWM:  150, 61.8% Fib. Retracement)


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (6/17), the value of SGS was calculated to be -1287 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  I still expect the Fed to intervene in one way or other to shore up indices as selling continues.  I thought once SPX reached 3500, we would see the Fed rushing in but after Powell's new conference last Wednesday, I don't think the Fed intervenes unless either bond spreads or a big hedge fund start to blow up.  Without Fed's intervention, SPX could sell further (blue arrows) between now and this fall to reach its PUL-1 (historic uptrend) around 2550.


My Plan

I am planning to close my SDS positions sometime this week as SPX tests 3500.



twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Sunday, June 12, 2022

QT Is In Progress ---> Selling Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Mus


The Federal Reserve's plan to fight inflation (raising interest rates and aggressively unwinding the balance sheet) is in progress now.  That plan will run the economy and financial markets into the ground.  At some point, hopefully sooner than later, the Fed will panic, and at the minimum, the Fed will stop its QT.  As Jamie Dimon explained it well last week, a financial storm is heading our way.


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (6/10), the value of SGS was calculated to be -377 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  I expect the Fed to rush in to shore up indices once SPX starts to test 3500 sometime soon.  If the Fed does not intervene, SPX could sell further to 3200 - 2500 range.


My Plan

I am putting my remaining cash into SDS sometime this week.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Sunday, June 5, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday Jun 03, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Mus



SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (6/3), the value of SGS was calculated to be -76 and the status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  I expect the Fed to rush in to shore up indices once SPX starts to test 3550 - 3500 levels sometime in the next couple of weeks.


My Plan

I didn't close my SDS positions, and now with SGS being SHORT again, my plan is to say with my SDS positions.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.  

Monday, May 30, 2022

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday May 27, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


From the LOD on Friday May 20 to the HOD last Friday, SPX rallied 10% on the back short-covering and dip-buying.   Last week's rally was impressive but bear market counter-trend rallies are usually impressive.  For example, SPX rallied 24% in three trading days (Fri 10/10/2008 LOD to Tue 10/14/2008 HOD) in the middle of 2008 crash.


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/27), the value of SGS was calculated to be -22 and the status of SGS changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 


My Plan

My plan is close my SDS positions sometime this week.




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Bear Market Rallies Are Vicious

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


Generally speaking, in a bull market, sell-offs are sizable but short-lived with no follow through. In a bear market, rallies are sizable but short-lived and with no follow through.  The rally last Friday looked to be nothing but a typical bear market rally.  It was sizable but we have to see if it has any follow through early next week. 

Friday's late day short-covering rally was due to what James Bullard said on Fox Business regarding economic growth for the rest of this year and next.  He expressed a very bullish outlook for the economy and employment.  He was expecting the US economy to grow at 3% or higher and he saw no chance of recession this year or next despite aggressive rate hikes by the Fed.  Of course someone like Bullard, a super hawk, has to talk like that to justify his super aggressive stand against inflation.  

If the Fed goes through with their QT plan (around $50 Billion in June, $50 Billion in July, and $100 Billion per month starting in August) while raising rates, they would run both the stock market and the economy into the ground.  Something has to give soon and my bet is that the Fed will stop its aggressive QT.  Otherwise, the entire financial system would start to come apart once losses in SPX exceeds 30%.


SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/20), the value of SGS was calculated to be -926 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 


S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 


My Plan

My plan is to stay with my positions for now. 




twitter
opader@gmail.com



SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.