Extreme Volatility And Chaos Is The New Norm Now

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday January 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data (New)
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The influx of millions of new and inexperienced traders using trading apps on their smartphones and commission-free trading platforms in recent years has contributed to the increased volatility and unpredictability seen in major financial market indices. These traders, who have very little or no understanding of the market or the companies whose stocks they are trading, are more likely to make emotional trading decisions, which has lead to large price movements and increased volatility of indices.   In short, extreme volatility and chaos exhibited by major indices in recent months is the new norm now.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/27), the value of SGS was calculated to be +183.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  SPX closed above its PDL-1 last week.  That is bullish and signals higher prices are ahead for major indices.

My Plan

I'm planning to open new long positions in SSO and XYL sometime this week.

 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.           

Higher Prices For Indices Are Ahead

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday January 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data (New)
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Aging population and a dysfunctional immigration system in the US has brought on shortages of labor in just about every job sector. That was quite evident by the unemployment data that was released last Thursday, confirming again that the US economy is experiencing "full employment". That means the current labor shortage and hence wage inflation ("sticky inflation") is going to be with us for a while. With full employment and moderate inflation going forward for the next couple of years, there is very little chance of a recession; and with no recession on the economic horizon anytime soon, it's very likely that higher prices for indices are ahead.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/20), the value of SGS was calculated to be +96.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  A weekly close above PDL-1 this week would signal a high likelihood of more buying ahead and continuation of the rally.

My Plan

No chance since last week, I'm planning to wait for a weekly close above PDL-1 before opening more new long positions.

 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.      

Recession While Full Employment?

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday January 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data (New)
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The top five world's economies, US, China, Japan, Germany, and UK are experiencing "full employment" mostly due to aging population.  A recession while full employment is unlikely.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/13), the value of SGS was calculated to be +194.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  A weekly close above PDL-1 this week would signal a high likelihood of more buying ahead and continuation of the rally.

My Plan

Per my plan, last Monday I closed my SDS position and opened a new long position in SSO.  I also opened a new long position in IYM last Wednesday and a new long position in IWM last Friday.  I'm planning to wait for a weekly close above PDL-1 before opening more new long positions.

 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.    

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday January 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data (New)
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (1/6/2023), the value of SGS was calculated to be +72.  The status of SGS was changed from SHORT to LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 

My Plan

With SGS status being LONG now, my plan is to close my SDS position and open a new position in SSO sometime early this week. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.   

Forecasts And Outlook Will Make Or Break Indices

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday December 9, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Starting in the 2nd week of January, companies report their 2022 fourth quarter earnings, and more importantly, their forecasts for 2023.  Rosy forecasts for 2023 by most companies would send indices significantly higher on the back of short-covering and dip-buying.  Not so rosy forecasts would send major indices much lower to test lower support levels.  For SPX, lower support levels are at 3500 and 3200.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (12/30/2022), the value of SGS was calculated to be -169.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  At this point there is a good chance now that SPX tests the support that exist around its October low (≈3500).  Should that support fail, then SPX would sell further to test 3200 level which is also 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the rally from its Covid low (2191) to its all-time high (4818).

My Plan

Per my plan, last Wednesday I opened a new SDS position.  My plan is to add to that position should indices continue to go lower. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.