Saturday, December 14, 2019

Trump vs. Xi

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must


When it comes to negotiating a trade agreement between the US and China, Trump is no match for Xi.  Trump continuously breaks the most important rule of negotiating. He talks (via twitter) too much and undermines his own team at every turn.  Trump  is desperate for anything that he could call "the best deal ever" while Xi could drag the negotiations on for another year or more.  In any negotiation, the desperate side folds and accepts whatever is offered.

Chances are good that "Phase 1" agreement gets signed soon.  That would be a clear signal to financial markets that the US/China trade relationship is on its way back to the status quo that existed prior to the Trump Administration.  That is bullish.


SGS advanced this week, confirming new all-time highs for major indices.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this are shown above.

My Plan

I'm still long in SPXL.  Indices will grind higher as trade uncertainties are lifted and the Fed's new QE money comes into equity markets.  Dips are buying opportunities.


Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)
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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, December 8, 2019

QE means BTFD

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



Simply put, so long as the Fed's new QE money finds its way into equity market, indices grind higher.  Tariff drama will cause sell-offs but those dips should be bought. 


SGS declined for most of the last week but on Friday it advanced, confirming the big rally on Friday.


Support and resistance levels for SPX for this are shown above.

My Plan

Last Tuesday SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Short and I opened a position in SPXU.  On Friday SGS-ST changed its status from Short to Neutral and I closed my position in SPXU.  An hour later SGS-ST changed its status from Neutral to Long  and I opened  a new position is SPXL.
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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Sunday, December 1, 2019

US / China Trade Negotiation Is Coming To A Head

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must



China wants the U.S. to scrap tariffs imposed since 2018, with a December 15 deadline looming on a 15 percent tariff hike on "another $160 billion of goods."  But the two sides can't even agree on where a deal signing should take place.  I have no idea what will happen but without a deal indices very likely sell-off.

SGS advanced last week, confirming all-time highs for DJI, SPX, NAZ, OEX, and NDX.  That is bullish and signals the rally very likely continues if a trade deal is reached with China.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are show above.

My Plan

SGS-ST changed its status to neutral on Tuesday. I closed my one position in SPXL. I'm watching SGS-ST.
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opader@gmail.com


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.