Iran War? For Warmongers It's Now or Never

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Jun 14, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

It's now or never for those who are pushing for a war against Iran, namely Neocons in DC, the Israeli right, Kushner,  MBS and MBZ.  Trump, for his own self-serving reasons, is against any military action but war mongers are scheming now so that a strike against Iran becomes inevitable.  I expect something major happens soon.

SGS advanced last week and confirmed new the new all-time high for SPX.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 

My Plan

Per my plan I closed my SDS positions.  I'm in cash and watching to see what happens in the Middle East.  If there is a massive strike against Iran, Iran would surely strike back and hit US, Arab, and possibly Israeli targets.  What happens after that and how we or Israel respond could bring on an all out war in the Middle East for many years to come with direct or indirect involvement of Russians and Chines.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

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Contact: opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Jun 14, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

SGS advanced last week and closed at +68 on Friday. SGS status changed from NEUTRAL to LONG. 

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  For SPX, a close above 2900 would signal a high likelihood that rally continues to challenge recent all-time high.

My Plan

No change since last week, a daily close above 2900 would be a signal form me to close all open SDS positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

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Contact: opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS  Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday Jun 7, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As shown on the SPX monthly chart above, SPX bounced off of its M-DTL strongly and retraced around 60% of its recent sell-off from its all-time high 2954 to 2728 recent low.  The strong rally last week was due to the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates aggressively to prevent a recession.  If the US economy is heading in to a recession, I'm not sure how cutting rates would prevent it.  The two recessions in the last 20 years (2000 to 2002 and 2008-2009) still happened despite aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.  It was the massive injection of money into the economy, via Iraq War in 2003 and QE in 2008, that ended the last two recessions.

The rally last week had all characteristics of a short-covering rally. If SPX resume its sell-off this week and dips below its M-DTL, there would be a high chance that SPX declines much more.

SGS advanced last week and closed at +29 on Friday. SGS status changed from SHORT to NEUTRAL.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  For SPX, a close above 2900 would signal a high likelihood that rally continues to challenge recent all-time high.

My Plan

I did expect a counter-trend rally but not as strong as what was started on Tuesday and continued into close on Friday.  I expect the sell-off in indices resume soon but a close above 2900 sometime this week would be a signal form me to close all open SDS positions.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday May 31, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As shown on the SPX monthly chart above, SPX closed for the month of May right on its M-DTL.  There is an excellent chance that selling that started in May continues into June, pushing SPX down to test its PUL-3 at around 2450.  A monthly close below M-DTL in June would be highly bearish, signalling significant more selling is head.   

SGS declined last week and closed at -91 on Friday. SGS status changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

Anticipating the change of SGS status from NEUTRAL to SHORT, I opened my first two of four long positions in SDS on Thursday and Friday.  I expect an ugly week ahead.

Current Long-Term Portfolio (2019)
Past Long-Term Portfolios (2018-2008)

twitter
Contact: opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.