Without Trump GOP Would Be Crushed In 2024

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday July 14, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

In 2024, if  Trump is not the Republican's presidential nominee, Republicans would be demolished in the election.  Not only they would lose the White House, but they would also lose the House and the Senate.  The reason is that if Trump is  not at the top of the Republican ticket, his loyal supporters (MAGA, about 20% to 30% of the Republican vote) would not bother to come out to vote.  With 20% to 30% of Republican vote being a no-show on the election day, Republicans would lose and lose bigly.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/28), the value of SGS was calculated to be +152.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  At this point chances are good that SPX reaches a new all-time high in the next few weeks.  Once SPX reaches a new all-time higher, then it would very likely fly to SPX 5000 on the back of short-covering and FOMO.

My Plan

My plan to add to my long positions early this week.  Planning to add additional 5% to SMH and another 5% to QQQ.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice  

The Bull Case

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday July 14, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The Bull Case

• Many studies have clearly shown that nearly half of recent inflation in the economy is due to price gouging by companies and cooperate greed that very likely continue until the economy enters into a deep recession.  In the meantime, companies will continue to post good earnings and their stocks will go higher and higher. 
  
  
• Positive effects for companies and stocks during inflation:
  
  
  • Increased revenue: During inflation, companies can often increase the prices of their products and services, leading to higher revenue and potentially improved profitability.
    
  • Asset appreciation: Tangible assets like property and equipment may appreciate in value during inflation, positively impacting the balance sheets of companies that own these assets.
    
  • Debt repayment advantage: In times of high inflation, companies with fixed-rate debt can benefit as the real value of their debt decreases over time.

• Because of dysfunctional immigration and temporary work policies, there are significant labor shortages in just about any industry in the US.  As a result the US economy is experiencing full employment which means continued higher spending by  a confident consumer who is not worried about facing unemployment.  Also, full employment brings substantially more money to the market via employees' retirement contributions.
  
  
  
• Last week Russell 2000 small cap. index breached its downtrend line and closed above it and its 38.2% Fib retracement level on its weekly chart shown above.  Also, breadth (A/D line) for both NYSE and NASDAQ have improved substantially in recent weeks, signaling higher prices for all major indices are very likely ahead. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/21), the value of SGS was calculated to be +201.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

Last Thursday morning, I moved half of my remaining cash (10%) into QQQ.  My plan is stay with my long positions for now.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice 

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday July 14, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/14), the value of SGS was calculated to be +191.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

With the value of SGS going LONG, my plan is to stay with my long positions. 

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of the close of Friday July 7, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

 

Starting this week, companies report their Q2 earnings and share their outlook for 2023-Q3 and Q4.  If earning reports and outlook are good, indices would continue their advance higher.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (7/7), the value of SGS was calculated to be +30.  The status of SGS changed from LONG to NEUTRAL.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm planning to stay with my long positions.  Chances are good that earnings and  outlook are going to be good and indices resume their advance higher.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

SPX 5000 This Year?

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday June 9, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

 

When it comes to equities, a moderate level of year or year monetary inflation (less than 7%) is a major stimulus for higher prices.  Monetary inflation simply means that our dollar is worth less; therefore, all assets have to be priced higher when they are priced in that less worthy dollar in order to reach the same absolute value.  If your house is valued at 1,000,000 US Dollar at the present time, its price has to be 1,320,000 Canadian Dollar if it's to be sold for Canadian Dollar because a Canadian dollar is worth less than a US dollar. 

At this point, despite the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, there is a good chance that our economy experiences moderate inflation for next five to ten years.  In the meantime, all assets, including equities and real estate, are priced higher and higher. There is a good chance that we see SPX 5000 sometime later this year and according to long-term EWA (shown above), we could see SPX at 7700 sometime in the next five years. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (6/30), the value of SGS was calculated to be +96.  The status of SGS remains LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

I still have 30% in cash and my plan to put that money to work by adding to my positions on days that indices are lower 0.5% or higher.

Current Long-Term Portfolio

Past Long-Term Portfolios

twitter
opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line

TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice..