RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 6/11/2010

SGS is Short.

SPX  is up against a wall of resistance at 1095, give or take a point or two.  Chances of overcoming this resistance is low.  Selling should resume next week.

RTS Current Portfolio Return =8.6% (5/17/2010 to Present)

RTS Total Return =65.9% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Ave. Annual Return = 25.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

  opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Half Way Done - Another Half To Go

NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ), Russel 2000 (RUT) and S&P 500 (SPX) have dropped about 13% from their highs of late April.  By late June to mid July, they'll very likely shed another 13% to reach their 50% retracement levels of their late April highs.  Those levels are roughly at:

COMPQ:1950
RUT: 550
SPX: 950

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 6/4/2010

SGS is Short.

RTS Current Portfolio Return =11.3% (5/17/2010 to Present)

RTS Total Return =68.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Ave. Annual Return = 26.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 5/28/2010

SGS is Short.

RTS Current Portfolio Return = 6.1% (5/17/2010 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 63.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Ave. Annual Return = 24.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Next Two Weeks, C R I T I C A L

Three scenarios to consider:

1. Less Likely: Continuation of the bull run that started early March 2009.

2. Likely: Market sells off more despite being very over sold, until it dramatically crashes down to SPX 950-900.

3. More Likely: A rally back to SPX 1120-1150 over the course of next two weeks and then declining back to retest last week lows, SPX 1070- 1050.

I like 2.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 5/21/2010

SGS is Short.

RTS Current Portfolio Return = 6.8% (5/17/2010 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 64.1% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Ave. Annual Return = 25.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Possible Downside for SPX ....

SGS is Short.

SPX seems to be sandwiched by 50 D-SMA (as the resistance) and 200 D-SMA (as the support).  There is a good chance now that SPX comes down to retest its 200 D-SMA at lower 110X sometimes this week.

SGS is short.  Full portfolio update this weekend.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Short Portfolio 201010517 Update

SGS is Short.

Fidelity had no free shares available to short MT and USO.  RTS shorted GILD and CNX in their place.

20100517 Short Portfolio:

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Went Short as of Close of Friday 5/14/2010

SGS is Short. 

On Monday May 17 at the open, all 10 open positions in RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio will be closed (sold) and the following 10 new short positions for RTS 20100517 Short Portfolio will be opened:

MON  PBR  MT  AVP  BAX  RIG  AKS  BP  SID  USO


RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio as of close of 5/14:

 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Possible upside for SPX ....

SPX seems to be sandwiched by 50 D-SMA (as the resistance) and 200 D-SMA (as the support).  There is a chance we break above 50 D-SMA, but I think we'll very likely stop at lower 1170's.

SGS is still long.  Full portfolio update on Friday as usual.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 5/7/2010

SGS is still Long, but very close to going Short.

Market is over-sold and next week it will very likely recover some, but I think the bull run that started on March 6, 2009 is over.

Current RTS Portfolio Return = -2.2% (02/23/10 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 52.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Annual Return = 21.1% (Ave Return Since 11/07/2007)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below:

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Selling TCK and Buying BA on Wed 5/5 at Open

In RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling TCK and buying BA in its place on Wednesday 5/5 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Selling AMZN and Buying STI on Tuesday 5/4 at Open

In RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling AMZN and buying STI in its place on Tuesday 5/4 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 4/30/2010

SGS is Long

Current RTS Portfolio Return = 9.1% (02/23/10 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 64.1% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Annual Return = 25.9% (Ave Return Since 11/07/2007)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below:

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Selling VALE and Buying LVS on Wednesday 4/28 at Open

In RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling VALE and buying LVS in its place on Wednesday 4/28 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 4/23/2010

SGS is Long

 

Current RTS Portfolio Return = 18.7% (02/23/10 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 73.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Annual Return = 29.9% (Ave Return Since 11/07/2007)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below:

 

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 4/16/2010

SGS is Long

 

Current RTS Portfolio Return = 13.2% (02/23/10 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 68.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Annual Return = 27.9% (Ave Return Since 11/07/2007)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below:

 

 

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

 

CF Took Over TRA on 4/15/2010 at Close - RTS Sold TRA and Bought ZION

CF announced on Thr 4/15/2010 that it was taking over TRA.  TRA was delisted on 4/15 at close. RTS sold TRA and bought ZION on Thr 4/15/2010 at close.

I didn't get a chance to sell my TRA shares and buy ZION last Thursday.  My plan is to do that as soon as my broker gives me the cash and CF shares for my TRA shares ($37.15 in cash + 0.0953*CF share for every TRA share).

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 4/9/2010

SGS is Long

Current RTS Portfolio Return = 15.1% (02/23/10 to Present)

RTS Total Return = 70.1% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Annual Return = 29.0% (Ave Return Since 11/07/2007)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below:

 

Past RTS Portfolios

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 4/2/2010

SGS is Long

RTS Total Return = 68.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)

RTS Annual Return = 28.4% (Ave Return Since 11/07/2007)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios)

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 3/26/2010

SGS is Long

RTS Total Return = 64.9% (11/07/2007 to Present)

Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios)

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Sold BTU and Bought X on Fri 3/26 at Open - Late Posting

SGS is Long.

In RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio, RTS sold BTU and bought X in its place on Friday 3/26 at the open.   I did not get a chance to analyze Thursday data until today.  My plan is to put my trades in tomorrow (Monday) at the open.

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Selling BJS and Buying MYL on Monday 3/22 at Open

In RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling BJS and buying MYL in its place on Monday 3/22 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 3/19/2010

SGS is Long

RTS One Year-ish Return = 11.1% (3/26/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 61.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

  opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Sold STX and Bought AMZN on Tue 3/16 at Open - Late Posting

SGS is Long.

In RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio, RTS sold STX and bought AMZN in its place on Tuesday 3/16 at the open.   I did not get a chance to analyze Monday data until this morning.  My plan is to put my trades in later today before close.

Current RTS Portfolio is up around 12%, full update on Friday.

This post was updated to correct AMZN for ZION.

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 3/12/2010

SGS is Long

RTS One Year-ish Return = 15.1% (3/26/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 65.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 3/5/2010

SGS is Long

RTS One Year-ish Return = 14.4% (3/26/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 64.5% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 2/26/2010

SGS is Long

RTS One Year-ish Return = 5.0% (3/26/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 55.1% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

SGS went Long at Close of Monday 2/22/2010

SGS went Long at Close of Monday 2/22/2010

SGS is Long. 

On Tuesday Feb 23 at the open, all 10 open positions in RTS 20100201 Short Portfolio will be closed (covered) and the following 10 new long positions for RTS 20100223 Long Portfolio will be opened:

 CLF  PCX  SNDK  TCK  STX  TRA  CAL  BJS  BTU  VALE

  
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 2/19/2010

SGS is Short

RTS One Year-ish Return = 12.2 (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 54.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

 

 opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 2/12/2010

SGS is Short

RTS One Year-ish Return = 17.2 (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 59.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Covering GG and X ; Selling Short WU and BAC on Friday 2/12 at Open

SGS is Short.

RTS 20100201 Short Portfolio is down 1.5%.  Full update tomorrow.  RTS is covering GG and X; selling short WU and BAC in their places on Friday 2/12/2010 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 2/5/2010

SGS is Short

RTS One Year-ish Return = 19.0 (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 61.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Monday 2/1/2010

SGS is Short

RTS One Year-ish Return = 15.9 (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 58.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

No no-cost shorts were available for STEC, STP and AIG.  They were replaced by NUE, GME and X. 

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS went Short at Close of Friday 1/29/2010

SGS is short. 

On Monday Feb 1 at the open, all 10 open positions in RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio will be closed and the following 10 new short positions for RTS 20100201 Short Portfolio will be opened:

 STEC  KGC  STP  QCOM  JCP  WFT  STLD  GG  AIG  MS

Chart below shows a trend line support at SPX 105X and 200 D-SMA support at SPX 101X.  I think Market is oversold and due for a rebound.  Then we very likely revisit SPX 1000.  Beyond that who the heck knows.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Revising Entry Target to SPX 1051

Looks to me SPX is in a consolidation pattern and is about to take another leg down to lower 1050's / higher 1040's.

My plan is to buy into indices and 10 RTS Divedend Long Portfolio at SPX 1051.   If SGS goes short  (it's marching that way now), I will close all long positions including RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio.  I will then open 10 new short positions.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Dividend Portfolio

My plan is to buy the following 10 stocks (equal $) once SPX hits 1061 (we might see that tomorrow or on Thursday).  These stocks have an average of 7.6% dividend yield and are chosen because of their price performance and high liquidity.  I'm not going to post changes to this portfolio.  If you're interested to get the updates, please send me an email and I include you in the update mailing list.


WPZ   FUN   NMM   CLMT   CQP   SJT   RGNC   TNP   ETE   SE

Good Luck.

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed dare provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. 

RTS Selling X and CAT -- Buying MRK and TGT on Wed 1/27 at Open

SGS is Long.

In RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling X and CAT, buying MRK and TGT in their places on Wednesday 1/27 at the open.   Full update on Friday.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling COF and Buying ZION on Tue 1/26 at Open

RTS is selling COF and buying ZION in its place on Tuesday 1/26/2010 at the open.  Full update on Friday.


opader@gmail.com

Sorry about the late post, www.blogger.com was down last night.   

A Correction is Underway

Since March 2009 lows, SPX has corrected twice, dropping 9.1% from its peak in July 2009 and 6.5% in November 2009.  This correction is no different from the previous two and I expect a drop of 7.8% (average of the last two) from the recent SPX peak of 1150.   That suggests 1061 as the low point for this correction, very likely happening intraday either on Monday or Tuesday next week.

I looked at currently top ranked stocks, none of them looked that good to me.  My plan is to buy the indices once and if SPX  hits 1061 or lower.  I'm going to use "conditional market buy orders" to open these long positions:

SPY 20%, QQQQ 40%, IWM 40%

Good Luck.

RTS Selling FCX and Buying CMA on Monday 1/25 at Open

RTS is selling FCX and buying CMA in its place on Monday 1/25/2010 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 1/22/2010

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 22.4% (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 73.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 1/15/2010

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 32.9% (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 84.3% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 1/8/10

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 36.3% (1/15/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 87.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling MSFT and Buying X on Friday 1/8 at the Open

SGS is Long.

RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 26%.  Full update tomorrow.

RTS is selling MSFT and buying X in its place tomorrow Friday 1/8/2010 at the open.

opader@gmail.com 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Thursday 12/31/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 16.3% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 71.0% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Thursday 12/24/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 18.8% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 73.5% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com 

Unloading at SPX 1124

SGS is Long.

I am unloading RTS 20091015 Long Portfolio at SPX 1124 or higher. 


opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 12/18/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.7% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.3% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 12/11/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.8% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

 

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 12/04/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 12.4% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 67.0% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling TJX and Buying CI on Friday 12/4 at Open

SGS is Long.

RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 18%.  Full update tomorrow.

RTS is selling TJX and buying CI in its place tomorrow Friday 12/4/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

2009 is Coming to an End

SGS is Long.

For the last 6 months, SPX has peaked at a new high near the middle of the month, then sold off and hitting its cycle low near the end of month or the beginning of the next month. This cycle is being repeated for November as well. What's important is that all mid-month highs are new highs (all higher highs) while end-month / beginning-month lows are just cycle lows (all higher lows). So, there is an excellent chance that we see a new cycle low next week (probably in low 1070's, around 50 D-SMA) and the rally resuming to make a new high in SPX probably by mid to late December.

My plan is to sell all positions in  RTS 20091015 Long Portfolio on the next cycle high, I think we probably see 113X on SPX by mid or late December.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/27/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.6% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.2% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/20/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 13.8% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.4% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of Friday 11/13/2009

SGS is Long  

RTS One Year-ish Return = 14.2% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 68.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

(edited on 11/16/09 to correct errors in table below, thanks Ben)

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 11/06/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 8.3% (1/6/2009 to Present)
RTS Total Return =62.9% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

(edited on 11/16/09 to correct errors in table below, thanks Ben)

RTS Selling GS and Buying CLF on Friday 11/6 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 13%.  Full update tomorrow.

RTS is selling GS and buying CLF in its place tomorrow Friday 11/6/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

What's Happening? ..... Market Oversold

Market is very over sold.  A recovery should start next week specially as we enter into a seasonably strong period.  Having said that, one cannot ignore the fact that an oversold condition always preludes a major crash.  So, is (A) Market going to recover and continue to go higher, or (B) is this the beginning of another crash to retest the lows of last March?  No one can answer that question with total certainty.  It's a question of probabilities.  To me (A) is more probable than (B) because of many reasons.  The main reason is that Government and Wall Street will make sure a crash does not happen.  At this point in the US and global economy, another stock market crash would bring on an unprecedented level of financial chaos which would be much worse than what we experienced from October 2008 to March 2009.  No one wants that, but it doesn't mean that it could never happen.

This pull back looks like a typical pull back of a bull market. Steep, but short in length. SGS is still Long, but if there is no recovery next week, it will go Short.  My plan is to follow my signal.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling CNX and Buying MSFT on Monday 11/2 at Open

SGS is Long.

RTS is selling CNX and buying MSFT in its place on Monday 11/2/2009 at the open.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/30/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 27.4% (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 56.7% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling AEM and Buying CAT on Friday 10/30 at Open

SGS is Long.
RTS 20090326 Long Portfolio is up around 12%.

RTS is selling AEM and buying CAT in its place tomorrow Friday 10/30/2009 at the open.


opader@gmail.com

SPX Closed Below its 50 D-SMA

S&P 500 closed slightly below its 50 Day Simple Moving Average (D-SMA) today.   Market will probably make a sharp move tomorrow and / or Friday.  The direction of the move is going to depend on how good or bad GDP and Unemployment numbers are.

SGS is long so my plan is to ride this out.  I think the numbers aren't going to be as bad as Market fears. 

opader@gmail.com

RTS Selling PRU and Buying AMZN on Wed 10/28 at Open

SGS is Long, but moving toward going short.

RTS sold PRU and bought AMZN in its place today Wednesday 10/28/2009 at the open. I didn't get a chance to run the program until a few minutes ago.  I'm planning to sell PRU and buy AMZN tomorrow at the open.

opader@gmail.com

Bull Run In Trouble?

Bull run in trouble?  I don't think so, at least not as long as SPX is above its 50 D-SMA.  A solid close below 50 D-SMA would be very negative.

The rolling one year return, which is looked at by investors, is going to get better and better for all indices, nearly all stocks and mutual funds between now and early March 2010. For example, if SPX remains flat between now and early March 2010, its one year performance would still increase by 25%.  This phenomena will cause more and more investors who are sitting on the side line to come in and buy the dips, specially as we close October and enter into a seasonably strong period of the year.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/23/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 37.3 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 66.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/16/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 34.2 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 63.5% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

opader@gmail.com

SPX Solidly Closed Above 1076 Today

SGS is Long.

I'm going in tomorrow (Thr 10/15/09) at the open with equal $ on:

1. TCK
2. HIG
3. LNC
4. MEE
5. FAS
6. IP
7. TNA
8. DOW
9. XL
10. COF

opader@gmail.com

SPX at 1076

SGS is Long.

SPX closed at 1076.19 today.  I'm going to give one more day to this break out and see if Market can push higher with heavier volume and better breath.  I think we might be in for a one or two days of profit taking.

opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/9/2009

SGS is Long.

RTS One Year-ish Return = 34.5 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 63.8% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):

The Plan to Get Back In

 SGS is Long.

I cashed out my trading account on 9/17 as SPX hit 1074 itraday per plan outlined earlier.  I've been sitting on the sideline and hoping for a nice pull back.  Well, it didn't happen and the likelihood of it happening is slim now.

My plan is get back in if SPX closes at 1076 or better.  I'll buy RTS Top 10 as of close of the same day as SPX closes at 1076 or better.  More on the plan if SPX closes at 1076 or better.

Questions / Comments: Please email me at opader@gmail.com .

RTS Selling STI and Buying AEM on Thursday 10/8 at Open

SGS is Long.


RTS is selling STI and buying AEM in its place on Thursday 10/8/2009 at the open.  RTS is up around 13% ( Full update on Friday).

Questions / Comments: Please email me at opader@gmail.com

RTS Portfolio Updated as of Close of 10/2/2009

SGS is Long.
RTS One Year-ish Return = 26.3 % (9/5/2008 to Present)
RTS Total Return = 55.6% (11/07/2007 to Present)
Current RTS Portfolio is shown below (Past RTS Portfolios):