Saturday, January 17, 2015

"Je suis une dinde complètement cuit "

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral as of close of 12/29/2014

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash



Our almost six year bull market is done, we can put a big fork in it :) .

SPX will very likely rally next week on the back of "European QE" to test the triple resistance (50 D-SMA, PDL and AUL) around SPX 2045.  If that test fails, I believe SPX would sell off to test support at SPX 2000.  Should SPX closes below 2000 next Friday, a 10% sell off to test last October low (SPX 1820) is highly likely.

I'm still in cash.  I'm planning to do my first short  selling of four on Tuesday or Wednesday as after SPX fails to close above its triple resistance level (SPX 2045).  For now, my plan is to do more short sells after a daily close below SPX 2020 and SPX 2000.  I'm shorting SPY, IWM, QQQ and DIA (equal $ amount).



SPX: S&P 500 Index
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index
RUT: Russell 2000 Index
OEX: S&P 100 Index
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index 
D-SMA : Daily - Simple Moving Average
D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
PDL : Primary Downtrend Line
PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
ADL: Active Downtrend Line
AUL: Active Uptrend Line
DTL: Dynamic Trend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

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Saturday, January 10, 2015

Is A Bottom Near?

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral as of close of 12/29/2014

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash



I don't know if a bottom is near.  Maybe what's happening now is nothing but a healthy correction in our almost six year bull market.  Here are two scenarios that I'm considering:

  • Bear Case (70% imo): SPX sells off early this coming week to test support at 2020.  A daily close below SPX 2020 would signal a move to test strong support at 2000.  If SPX starts to trade below 2000, I believe chances are good that SPX sells off significantly, maybe around 10%, in a few weeks.

  • Bull Case (30% imo): Support at SPX 2020 holds and SPX rallies to close above its 50 D-SMA and its PDL. SPX continues higher to put in a new all time high.
As posted on my FB page, I did not open any long positions last week as I had planned.  I'm in cash and for now just watching indices from the sideline.


SPX: S&P 500 Index
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index
RUT: Russell 2000 Index
OEX: S&P 100 Index
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index 
D-SMA : Daily - Simple Moving Average
D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
PDL : Primary Downtrend Line
PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
ADL: Active Downtrend Line
AUL: Active Uptrend Line
DTL: Dynamic Trend Line

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.


on

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Hello 2015

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral as of close of 12/29/2014

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash


SPX put in a new all time high last Monday. Since then, it has been selling off.  Chances are good that SPX rallies this coming Monday to test its PDL around 2075.  Should SPX fail to break through and close below its PDL, SPX would very likely sells off again to test its 50 D-SMA around 2035.  A close below 50 D-SMA would signal more selling to test AUL somewhere between 2030 to 2020.

My plan is to open long positions as SPX reaches 2030 to 2020.  I'm doing my first buy of three.  I'm buying SPY, QQQ, XLF, IBB and XLK (equal $ amounts).


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Monday, December 29, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL  
Neutral  as of close of 12/29/2014
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
In Cash - closed long positions on 12/29/2014

RTS Past Portfolios (2008-2014)

SGS Market Timer turned Neutral as of close of today. All long positions were closed today.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Upside Is Limited - Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014
 
RTS Current Portfolio (2014)
Indices have been following the average seasonal pattern very closely.  They should drift higher on low volume next week.  Chances are good that SPX hits 2100 which would be an overbought level and it would turn SGS Market Timer to from LONG to NEUTRAL.

I'm planning to go back into cash as SPX hits 2100 and then buy long again as SPX corrects very early next year to back test its DTL and 50 D-SMA.

Happy New Year


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Saturday, December 20, 2014

A New All Time High For SPX?

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current Portfolio (2014)
After finding a bottom at 1972 on Tuesday, SPX rocketed up on Wednesday and Thursday punching through its old Primary Downtrend Line (PDL, dashed black line) and Dynamic Trend Line (DTL, 13 D-EMA, thick red).  The rally continued on Friday as SPX got very close to take out its all time high before closing nine points below it.
 
The 5% gain in SPX in three days was due to massive short covering and also massive buying by traders,  myself included, who did not get in when SPX bottomed out at 1820 on October 15.  Those traders were forced to sit out as SPX rallied from 1820 to 2079 without any correction.  When SPX bottomed out on Tuesday, everyone who wanted to be long, got in thinking that SPX would shoot up again like it did before from its October low to its recent all time high earlier this month.

Chances are good that SPX moves higher in a more normal bull leg pattern this time around. There will be ample opportunities to add to long positions along the way because there will be normal profit taking pull backs.  There is a good chance that one of those pull backs is coming our way soon.  I expect SPX to top around 2100 sometime this year.  Then early next year, during the first few trading days, starts to sell off to back test its DTL and possibly its 50 D-SMA around 2030 to 2020.

Per my plan, I did my first buy of four last Wednesday.  I'm planning to go back into cash as SPX hits 2100 and then buy long again as SPX corrects very early next year to back test its DTL and 50 D-SMA.

Seasons Greetings and Happy New Year


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 14, 2014

A Bottom Is Near

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs


SPX gained 15% from its low on October 15 to its high on December 5.  Chances are good for SPX to continue to retrace back its advance between 33% to 50% sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Assuming current correction bottoms out somewhere half way between 33% and 50%, gives us SPX 1966 as a good target to start opening long positions.

My plan is to do my first buy of four at SPX 1966.  For now I'm planning to buy SPY, QQQ, XLF and IBB in equal $ amounts.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, December 7, 2014

A Sharp Correction Is Coming

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs

No change since last week, indices are overbought.  I'm still waiting for an entry point.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs


No change since last week, indices are overbought.  I'm still waiting for an entry point.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 23, 2014

No Change Since Last Week - A Correction Is Coming

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs
 
 
No change since last week, indices are overbought.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 16, 2014

A Correction Is Coming

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs
 
No change since last week, indices are overbought.  Chances are are good that a minor sell off starts this coming week.  My plan is to do my first buy of 4 into that sell off.   I am planning to buy SPY and QQQ (equal $ amount).  I'm looking for a test of 2000 and possibly 50 D-SMA on a panic.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, November 9, 2014

BTFD

SGS Market Timer Status:   LONG 
LONG as of close of 10/30/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In Cash - Looking for an entry into longs
 
No change since last week, indices are overbought.  Chances are are good that a minor sell off starts this coming week.  My plan is to do my first buy of 4 into that sell off.   I am planning to buy SPY and QQQ (equal $ amount).  I'm looking for a test of 2000 and possibly 50 D-SMA on a panic.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on
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