Still Waiting For An Entry To Go Long

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  November 11, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2017)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2016)


Long Term Outlook

Longer term, chances are good for SPX to sell off to tests its DTL-W around 2250 sometime this coming and then continues its sell off to test its PUL-2 and price support around 2200.

Short Term Outlook

Shorter term, chances are good for SPX to sell off to tests its D-DTL around 2280 sometime this coming and then continues its sell off to test its AUL around 2270.

My Plan

The latest chaos created by the US administration could escalate and cause a minor sell off this coming week.  If there is no selling of individual stocks, then the upcoming sell off would be a good buying opportunity.  My plan is to do my first buy of three in SPY.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Sell Off Is Likely This Coming Week

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  November 11, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2017)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2016)

All major indices have now broken through their AUL's and trading below them. Chances are good that we see a significant (5% to 10%) sell off starting this coming week.

Long Term Outlook

Longer term, chances are good for SPX to sell off to tests its DTL-W around 2230 sometime this coming and then continues its sell off to test its PUL-2 and price support around 2190.

Short Term Outlook

Shorter term, chances are good for SPX to sell off to tests its 50 D-SMA around 2250 sometime this coming and then continues its sell off to test its 100 D-SMA around 2200.

My Plan

I'm watching the sell off to see if Big Money unloads any of his long equity positions. If there is no selling of individual stocks, then the upcoming sell off would be a good buying opportunity.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Classic Case Of "Buy The Rumor - Sell The News"?

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  November 11, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2017)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2016)

The rumor is that the Trump presidency is going to be great for the US stock market.  He and the Congress are going to get rid of tons of regulations, give everyone a substantial tax cut, create millions of new jobs, pure billions if not trillions of dollars into our military and infrastructure, balance the budget and reduce the national debt.  The news might be that the new administration would find itself drawn into many controversies, scandals, conflicts and become totally paralyzed.

Longer Term Outlook

Chances are good that SPX sells off to test its 13 W-EMA (W-DTL) sometime this coming week.  A close below W-DTL this week would signal a high likelihood of trend line (PUL-2) and price support around 2180. 

In all minor sell offs since the election, I have not seen any signs that Big Money was unloading his long positions in equities.  I wonder if that is going to change after Trump takes the White House.  If Big Money hangs on to his long equity positions as SPX sells off to test supports, then the sell off would be a good buying opportunity.
 

My Plan

I'm planning to stay in cash and watch the action from the sideline for another week or so.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A New Bull Leg?

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  November 11, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2017)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2016)

Is this the beginning of a new bull leg?  I don't know, I am going to wait and see how indices and stocks behave in a sell off which should be coming our way soon.

I'm planning to include my usual charts and analysis in my weekly post very soon.  Still trying to recover from the shock of the election and rally since the election :). 

My Plan

For now I'm staying in cash.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Indices Are Overbought

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  November 11, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

My Plan

I'm still in cash looking for an opportunity to open long positions.  I'm taking the rest of the year off.  My plan to start posting on weekly basis in January 2017.

Seasons Greetings and Happy New Year.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is LONG

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  November 11, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

Indices including SPX are on their way to put in new all time highs.

Shorter Term Outlook

Chances are high that SPX back test its DTL, 50 and 100 D-SMA around 2150 - 2145 before heading higher to set new all time highs.

My Plan

My plan is to do my first buy of 3 in IWM, SPY and XLF sometime this week.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Market Is Signalling A Landslide Win For Dems

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of  October 28, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

As of this writing (Sunday 6 PM PST), futures are up around 1%.  Chances are good that global markets rally on Monday and Tuesday signalling a landslide win for Clinton and Democrats on Tuesday night.

Longer Term Outlook

Last week SPX broke through its Old PDL-0 which was an important support.  Chances are good that SPX back test that support on the back of the election relief rally this coming week before resuming its sell off to test support around 2060-2020.

Shorter Term Outlook

SPX sold off last week and tested its 200 D-SMA.  Chances are high that SPX rallies early next week on the back of Clinton's victory to back test its Old PDL-0 and DTL around 2110.  After that I expect selling to resume.

My Plan

No change, my plan is to stay in cash for now.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of  October 28, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

SPX is being supported by its Old PDL-0. Should that support fail this coming week, chances are high that SPX continues its sell off to test support at 50 and 100 W-SMA around 2060.

Shorter Term Outlook

Chances are high that SPX retests its Old PDL-0 again sometime this coming week.  Should that support fail, SPX very likely sells off to test its 200 D-SMA around 2085.

My Plan

My plan is to stay in cash for now.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Grinding Up Into The Election

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Big Money hates Trump. There is a long history between Big Money and the Donald.  Big Money never thought much of him as a business man or otherwise.  In order to make sure Trump has absolutely no chance of winning, Big Money will push indices higher between now and the election.

I expect a slow grind upward. I don't expect any correction until Hillary is elected on November 8.  What happens to financial markets and the republican party after the election is not clear at all.  It could get nasty if there is no clear and final resolution to the election, similar to what happened in 2000.

Longer Term Outlook

Chances are high that selling continues this coming week as SPX tests its Old PDL-0 and AUL around 2115.  If those supports hold, I expect a rally to test SPX all time high.

Shorter Term Outlook

I expect a test of Old PDL-0 sometime this week around SPX 2115 to 2110.

My Plan

My plan to do my first buy of three buys around SPX 2115 sometime this week.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.