Thursday, March 24, 2011

Tomorrow - Bears' Last Chance

SGS is Short (as of close of 3/16/2010)
RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)
My LT Portfolio

I watch five major indices very closely.  They are TRAN, RUT, NAZ, SPX and DJI.  As of close of today, two have broken their primary down trend lines on their daily charts and closed above them (TRAN and DJI), two are sitting right around their primary down lines (NAS and RUT) and one (SPX) is still trading below its primary down trend line.  There three probable scenarios here to consider:

(Less Likely): "Libya War" rally has legs and will continue.  Indices that are below or on their primary down trend lines will close above them with good volume and breadth tomorrow.  Then, early next week after back testing their primary down trend lines (a good place to close short positions and scale into long positions), they'll continue to go higher.

(Likely): Market starts to go sideways for at least 5 trading days and then sets a direction either up or down.

(More Likely): Market stalls tomorrow and selling starts as early as tomorrow or Monday.  I'm banking on that.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.