Sunday, May 20, 2012

Indices Are At Extremely Oversold Levels

 SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012)
In CASH (per plan closed all positions on 5/14/2012 around 9:30 AM were closed at 4:00 PM on Friday 5/18/2012)

Opening Following positions on Monday 5/21 at open and closing on Friday 5/25 at close or if a goal of 2.5% portfolio gain is reached during the week:
  • Longs: (10 Positions Equal $): VRTX  EXPE  WCRX  T  VZ  MNST  WMT  AMZN  PEP  DIS 
  • Shorts: (10 Positons Equal $):  FOSL  GMCR  ADSK  JPM   C  MS  WYNN  NFLX  AKAM   CTSH
Indices are at extremely oversold levels and a sharp bounce is imminent.  Both RUT and DJT are trading around their 200D SMA's.  There is a good chance that SPX also tags its 200D SMA around 1280, then rallies to test resistance at 1310 and 1340.  Based what I have seen in the last two weeks, I believe we are at a bottom and chances of a rally back to 1310 - 1340 is very high.

There is also a remote possibility of a massive sell off which can occur  when indices are at an extremely oversold level like now. I'm not worried about a massive sell off (i.e. crash) because Big Money actions in the last two weeks do not support that scenario. Of course on cannot rule out that possibility, but at this point it's very unlikely.

I'm 50% invested in my LT.  My plan is to do my 3rd buy after we clear 1310 resistance.  A close below 200 D-SMA for SPX would be a red flag and I would look for an exit point for my long positions. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.