Sunday, April 24, 2016

Going Back To Tried And True

Going Back to Old SGS_LT Timer

Sometime in early 2015 I changed SGS Market Timer from a lagging market timer to a leading market timer.  That was a mistake and I'm going back to old SGS.

Generally speaking, lagging timers work well in a trending market and leading timers work well in a trading market.  When I switched to a leading market timer in 2015, my expectation was that indices would stay in a narrow trading range.  What actually has happened since Oct 2014 is that indices have traded in a relatively wide trading range, but up and down swings within that range have been quite sharp and trending.

I am slowly getting back into the swing of things.  I have no plan for now to post on daily basis, unless something significant happens.   I will have my regular weekend post on my blog (updated usually on Sundays) and hopefully with charts and analysis starting next weekend.

Long Term Outlook (Weeks to Months):

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
Long as of close of  March 18, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Indices are quite overbought and I expect a sizable sell off sometime this coming week.

My Plan:

My plan is to close my long term short positions.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.