Sunday, July 31, 2016

Waiting For Market To Make The First Move

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer

Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

The Positives:
  • As of close of Friday, SPX has been trading above its bull flag (thick green above) for four consecutive weeks.  Chances are good that SPX continues its rally for another 300 points between now and the presidential election.
  • Q2 earnings are meeting or beating expectations.
  • Chances of a rate hike this year is slim to none.
  • Trump's ship is beginning to take on water. I'm watching to see if the rats start fleeing that ship.  Chances are good that if Trump's poll numbers fall significantly  (25 points or more) behind Clinton's in swing states, he would suspend his campaign and quit the race ... "it's all rigged ... they're not nice to me ...  I'm not interested anymore ... frankly, I don't need this, I'm really rich ... ".
The Negatives:
  • Q2 GDP was anemic (1.2%) and Q1 GDP was revised down to less than 1%.
  • Durable Goods Orders fell by 4% for a second straight month in June.
  • Clinton's unfavorable rating remains at historic high levels despite DNC's very successful convention.

Shorter Term Outlook

No change since last week, indices are quite overbought.  SPX, for example, has rallied 20% since mid February.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to back test its PDL-0 which resisted any advance by SPX for over a year.  PDL-0 should now act as a strong support when it's tested.

My Plan

My plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells off to test its PDL-0 around 2120.

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.