Monday, October 3, 2016

A Contested Presidential Election?

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer

Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

I see only two scenarios between now and the election day:
  • (A - 80%) - Polls remain tight, giving a slight edge to either Trump or Clinton.  Clinton wins the election, but Trump would not concede and starts legal action to contest the election, 2000 Presidential Election all over again.  Market significantly corrects, all peaks should be sold.
  • (B - 20%) - Clinton pulls ahead significantly. Trump quits.  All dips should be bought.
Longer Term Outlook

Chances are high that selling continues this coming week as SPX tests its PUL-2 around 2120.

Shorter Term Outlook

SPX hovered around its DLT and its 50 D-SAM last week.  At this point chances are good that SPX continues its selling this coming week to test test its AUL around 2150 and then its PUL-2  around 2120.

My Plan

My plan is to stay in cash for now.

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.