Sunday, May 19, 2019

China Trade War Versus Iran All Out War

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Feb 8, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

A major military conflict with Iran worries the market substantially more than the trade war with China.  The outcome of a trade war with China is known, very  likely  a trade agreement in which wildly consumed Chinese products would be subjected to 5% to 10% tariff, paid by the US importers and passed on to the US consumers. The new tariff would be a flat tax, in a way a federal sales tax.  The outcome of a conflict with Iran, on the other hand, is unknown.  It could be just one or two missile strikes by the US with very little or no response from Iran.  It could also spiral into an all out war, possibly nuclear war, in the Middle East. 

SGS declined last week and got closer to turning from "LONG" to "NEUTRAL" but managed to close above +50. SGS status is still "LONG".

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

I am watching the situation with Iran.  If it looks like that Bolton and Cotton (both serve their Israelis and Saudis masters) are about to push us into a war, then I would close all long positions. 

SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.