SGS Market Timer Status: LONG
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must
Since last October the Fed has been injecting about $120 billions of dollars per month into the banking REPO. Per direction from the Fed, Fed agents continue to buy short-term US treasuries bills in order to keep short-term rates from exploding higher. I don't know what is going on but there are important questions that need to be answered soon:
SGS advanced this week, confirming new all-time highs for major indices. SGS closed on Friday near 500 which signals that, short-term, indices are overbought.
Support and resistance levels for SPX for the coming week are shown above. SPX is overbought and there is a good chance of a sell-off to test supports sometime this week.
Last Tuesday SGS-ST changed its status from Long to Neutral. I'm in cash and waiting to see which way SGS-ST turns.
Season's Greetings & Happy New Year
Current Long-Term Portfolio
Past Long-Term Portfolios
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must
SGS-ST Market Timer Status: Neutral
Neutral as of 1 PM Tuesday Dec 24, 2019
SGS-ST is a Short-Term (hours to days) Timer
Since last October the Fed has been injecting about $120 billions of dollars per month into the banking REPO. Per direction from the Fed, Fed agents continue to buy short-term US treasuries bills in order to keep short-term rates from exploding higher. I don't know what is going on but there are important questions that need to be answered soon:
- Why intervention at such a high rate is needed? Maybe it's because that the deficit spending is becoming so massive that there is not enough private demand for the short-term US government debt.
- How long can the Fed continue injecting money into REPO? $120 billions per month is not sustainable.
- What happens when the Fed stops? The Fed plans to stop its intervention in REPO sometime in 2020-Q2.
My Plan
Last Tuesday SGS-ST changed its status from Long to Neutral. I'm in cash and waiting to see which way SGS-ST turns.
Season's Greetings & Happy New Year
Current Long-Term Portfolio
Past Long-Term Portfolios
SPX: S&P 500 Index SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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