Sunday, January 26, 2020

The 2020 Triage Dance Continues

SGS  Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday Oct 25, 2019
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

sgs-st Market Timer Status:  neutral 
sgs-st is a Short-Term (hours to days) Timer

Last October I posted "The 2020 Triangle Dance".  It's time to review where things stand now in this 3-way political dance:
  • DNC - DNC is still trying hard to make sure Biden is their nominee for the 2020 election but hopes will be dashed in upcoming primaries as the Democratic base resoundingly will vote for Sanders.  DNC will not make the same mistake they made in 2016 and, barring an unforeseen health related event, Sanders will be Democratic nominee.

    As for the 2020 presidential election, as predicted, Democrats impeached Trump but still do not want him removed because they consider Trump as the weakest Republican nominee they could possibly face in November.  Also, with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket, Democrats not only have an excellent chance of winning the White House but also have a good chance of flipping the Senate.  To that end, Democrats will try to prolong Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate by forcing Republican senators to vote on introducing new documents, introducing new witnesses, and a host of other resolutions and amendments.  If Democrats manage to find four Republican senators to vote with them for the introduction of new documents and witnesses, the impeachment trial would be extended for days or possibly weeks.  Also, with the introduction of new witnesses and documents, chances of Trump's removal significantly increases to at least 50%.

  • RNC - With Trump as the head of RNC, the situation for Republicans has turned from bad to worse.  Their plan is to quickly sweep the entire impeachment under the rug and hope that people would forget about the whole thing by the election in November.  That won't happen because between now and November new Trump's impeachment related damning stories, books, documents, and leaks will surface every week if not every day.

  • Trump - No change. Knowing the erratic and chaotic nature of Trump, it's hard to predict what he would do between now and the election.  Assuming Trump survives the his pending removal by the Senate, there is a good chance that he would resign if he sees that he is going to lose his second term election in a landslide.  If he chooses to resign, Trump being Trump, he would do it in a way that it would inflict maximum pain and damage to the Republican party and their replacement nominee.  That is not going unnoticed by Republicans.

SGS advanced early last week but declined with the sell-off on Friday.

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  If the Senate votes to allow new documents and witnesses, then the sell-off that started on Friday would continue and SPX could possibly tests its 50 D-SMA around 3200 sometime this week or next week.  If the Senate rejects new documents, witnesses, and quickly finds Trump not guilty, then a relief rally would push indices to new all-time highs and beyond.

My Plan

Last Wednesday sgs-st turned from long to neutral.  I closed my SPXL position. I'm in cash and waiting to see which way sgs-st turns. 

So far sgs-st  has performed well and my plan is to use sgs-st along with SGS to trade my long-term money.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.