Sunday, August 27, 2023

Computer Says No / Computer Says Yes

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday August 18, 2023
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As summarized in the table below, S&P 500 (SPX) has had nine 20% or higher corrections since its inspection in 1957.  The average counter-trend rally in those bear markets was nine weeks long.   Also, on average, the longest counter-trend rally in those bear markets retraced back 56% of the initial decline.

From its last October low, SPX rallied for 45 weeks to its recent high late last month, retracing back 85% of its 2022 bear market decline.  The 45 week rally and 85% retracement are significantly higher than averages shown in the table above.  Therefore with a high degree of confidence, we can conclude that the rally since Oct 2022 is not a counter-trend bear market rally in a broader bear market. 

In summary:

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (8/25), the value of SGS was calculated to be -231.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

No change since last week, I'm watching price charts and if recent highs are breached, my plan is to bring my remaining cash (10%) in and buy QQQ.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.