SGS Market Timer Status: SHORT
SHORT as of the close of Friday August 18, 2023
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data
Why Market Timing Is A Must
As summarized in the table below, S&P 500 (SPX) has had nine 20% or higher corrections since its inspection in 1957. The average counter-trend rally in those bear markets was nine weeks long. Also, on average, the longest counter-trend rally in those bear markets retraced back 56% of the initial decline.
From its last October low, SPX rallied for 45 weeks to its recent high late last month, retracing back 85% of its 2022 bear market decline. The 45 week rally and 85% retracement are significantly higher than averages shown in the table above. Therefore with a high degree of confidence, we can conclude that the rally since Oct 2022 is not a counter-trend bear market rally in a broader bear market.
In summary:
In summary:
- Is the rally since last October a bear market rally? Computer says no :(
- Is the rally since last October likely a new leg of a bull market? Computer says YES! :)
SGS Market Timer
As of the close of last Friday (8/25), the value of SGS was calculated to be -231. The status of SGS remains SHORT.
S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels
My Plan
No change since last week, I'm watching price charts and if recent highs are breached, my plan is to bring my remaining cash (10%) in and buy QQQ.
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SPX: S&P 500 Index SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index DTL: Dynamic Trend Line
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance TLS: Trend Line Support
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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