Indecision --- Market Doesn't Know Where US Economy Is Headed

SGS is Short (as of close of 3/16/2010)
RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)
My LT Portfolio

SPX was sandwiched by the two immediate trend lines (shown in orange) today. The fight between bulls and bears was a tie, but  bears will get one more crack at dragging indices down tomorrow.  I think they'll get it done.

No one knows where our economy is headed now.  That unknown has brought on a world of confusion and indecision into financial markets causing them to over react to news.  Since I don't see a great deal of good news coming our way in the next few weeks, chances are good that Market would break to the down side any day now.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Bulls And Bears Will Go At It Again - T-Bones For Bears Tomorrow

SGS is Short (as of close of 3/16/2010)
RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)
My LT Portfolio

SPX back tested and closed above its 13 D-EMA today.  It's now sandwiched by two trend lines (in orange) which will force SPX to make up its mind, set a course by breaking through and closing past one of those two lines. My money is on SPX breaking down through its new up trend line and moving lower for a very probable retest of 1250 level.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Back Testing of SPX 13 D-EMA Likely

SGS is Short (as of close of 3/16/2010)
RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)
My LT Portfolio

 

Market very much news driven at this point. "Good news" from Japan / ME / NA could ignite a short covering rally this coming week sending SPX up to back test its 13 D-EMA around mid 1290's.   That would be a good point to open up intermediate and long term short positions imo.  At the same time, "bad news" could accelerate selling and we could see SPX retesting last week's low at 1250.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Major Indices Price Correction Very Likely Continues Next Week

Although my very long term (quarters to years) outlook for Market is extremely bullish, in the intermediate term (days to weeks) however, I think price consolidation / correction for major indices very likely will continue.

SPX tested its support at 1250 last week and bounced strongly.  That SPX low (1250) most likely will be tested again in the next two weeks. If support at 1250 fails, SPX could test the primary up trend line on its weekly chart at 1200 by mid April.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Down Trend Price Channel Still Intact

SGS is Short (as of close of 3/16/2010)
RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)
My LT Portfolio

The steep down trending price channel (shown in brown) is still intact.  Selling very likely starts again tomorrow.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Market Oversold, A Rally Is Very Likely Tomorrow

SGS is Short (as of close of 3/16/2010)
RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio

On Thursday 3/17/2011, RTS sells the following 10 stocks short in its RTS 20110317 Short Portfolio at the open.

AKAM  MVRL  CSCO  NEM  BBY  AVP  TEVA  EXPE  MRK FNSR

Market is very much over sold.  Barring breaking news from ME and Japan, SPX could rally viciously (short covering) tomorrow to test the lower channel line of its primary price channel around 1275.

Also today, 13 D-EMA crossed 50 D-SMA (orange circle) on SPX daily chart.  Although that crossing in  itself is bearish and signals more selling to come, but in very near future it's an indication of exhaustion of an aggressive trend (secondary sharply down trending price channel).

The price objective for the symmetric triangle formation downward break out is 1244.   A possible bullish scenario for tomorrow is for SPX to drop down to mid 1240's and then rally back up to close above today's close.  I wouldn't be surprised to see that tomorrow (it's already met on SPX futures tonight).

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Retest of 50 D-SMA for SPX Is Very Likely

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 3/11/2010)
RTS In Cash

All major indices quickly recovered from their very oversold values shortly after open today.  Barring breaking news from Japan or ME overnight, major indices should continue their rally.  Odds are very good that SPX tests its 50 D-SMA and 13 D-EMA around 1305.   It's hard to say what could happen after that.  Best is to stand aside and let Market set a course for us to follow.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Bears Are In Charge ..... More Selling Very Likely

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 3/11/2010)
RTS In Cash

More selling very likely is coming our way because:

• All five major indices (NAZ, DJI, SPX, RUT and TRAN) are trading below their 50 D-SMA.
• All five major indices have broken through and back tested their primary up trend lines on their daily charts.
• All five major indices have broken through their up trend lines on their weekly charts.
• All five major indices are now down trending both in their daily and weekly charts.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Selling Very Likely to Accelerate ... SGS Neutral Now

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 3/11/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

On Monday 3/14/2011, all long positions of RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio will be closed (sold) at the open.

This week SPX broke through and closed below its weekly uptrend line (Secondary Up Trend Line) with relatively heavy volume and bearish breadth.  I believe there is a good chance that selling would accelerate now and if support around mid 1270's does not hold, SPX could sell off to test its Primary Up Trend Line around 1220's.

Friday Market experienced a relief rally and SPX back tested the recent symmetrical triangle price formation on its daily chart. Selling very likely resumes again as Monday is shaping to be a big down day.  If support at lower 1290 does not hold, SPX very likely would tag its lower channel line around mid 1270's.

Face Book   

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

It's All About Oil ... Market Looking East to Saudi Arabia

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today, SPX, RUT and NAZ joined TRAN and closed below their 50 D-SMA with heavy volume and lousy breath.  That's no joke.  Additionally SPX broke solidly and heavily through its symmetric triangle price formation hence confirming a very probable drop to a price objective of 1244.

Too much blood has been let out now. It'll take some time for the raging big bull to get back on its feet and push the market up again. My guess is about a month of a downward consolidation move for all indices.

As for tomorrow, if things get ugly over night in Saudi Arabia, then a drop to lower channel line around SPX 1277 is very likely.  Otherwise, there is a good chance we see a relief rally to back test SPX 50 D-SMA around 1300.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Bears and Bulls Will Go At Again Tomorrow - Bears Likely Winners

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Once Again The Fight Is On Tomorrow - Odds Are With Bears This Time

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Chances are good that SPX breaks down through the symetric triangle price formation (break through thick red line support) and test its 50 D-SMA.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Market Signals More Selling In Near Future

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

A close below symmetrical triangle price formation (below 1310) signals more selling for SPX in the near future.  SPX is set now to test its 50 D-SMA.  If that support fails, my analysis predicts SPX at mid 1240's by mid to late April.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SPX Price Consolidation Very Likely Continues

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Most immediate support for SPX is its 13 D-EMA around 1320.  The next level support is the up trend line connecting lows of 2/24 and 3/2 (think red line) around 1310.  A close below that support would make a test of 50 D-SMA almost a certainty sometime this week, possibly as early as Tuesday.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SPX Weekly Golden Cross Imminent - Market Entering A Short Consolidation Phase

The bull market that started in early March 2009 will very likely continue for at least another 12 to 15 months. We're probably at the 2/3 point of this powerful run; and before this is all done odds are good that we see SPX in lower 1800's.

Like every bull market before it, there has been and will be short periods of consolidation when Market needs to stop, retrace and undergo a healthy correction.  Those consolidation / correction periods can be short or long depending on what has just taken place or about to take place.  For a bullish event, successfully crossing 200 W-SMA in late October 2010 for example, SPX corrected a few percent in a few weeks.  For a bearish event, failing to cross 200 W-SMA in late April 2010, SPX underwent a 10 month 15% correction as a punishment.

 

 As show on the chart above, SPX is about to experience one of the most bullish events: A Golden Cross on its weekly chart.  Accompanying this most bullish event, there would be a short consolidation / correction period.  I believe that consolidation period has started for SPX.  I believe SPX continues to correct for a brief period until mid to late April when SPX would successfully test its primary uptrend line on its weekly chart at or around 1250 before resuming its rally once again.

Important Note: A heavy, solid and confirmed close above SPX recent high of 1344 signifies the end of current consolidation / correction phase.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Retest of 50 D-SMA for SPX Is Still In The Cards

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

During the recent decline, all major indices except for SPX and DJI successfully tested their 50 D-SMA.  Although the same tests are not necessary for SPX and DJI in order for the bull run to continue, but it would have been nice if that had happened today.

Today, a combination of good initial claims data and short covering pushed all indices substantially higher right from the get go.  Looking at the SPX recent price pattern, I'm not sure if SPX broke out of a symmetrical triangle formation (a continuation pattern) and it's on its way to set new highs, or what we see is a bear flag pattern warning of a sell off in coming days.  Chances are that it is a bear flag; and odds are good for a major sell off down to 50 D-SMA around mid 1290's starting tomorrow.  If that's the case and a sell off starts, Market is predicting a news shock coming our way this weekend.

If Market rallies tomorrow and sets new highs in at least one or two indices, we're in clear and the bull leg that started on September 1, 2010 should continue.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Once Again The Fight Is On Tomorrow - Bulls Very Likely Winners Again

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

The Positives: 

• All major indices expect for TRAN are still above their 50 D-SMA.
• Average and even below average volume on down days.
• Number of new lows not expanding on NYSE or NASDAQ on down days.
• No panic selling of large or small caps on down days.

The Negatives:

• TRAN below its 50 D-SMA for 7 trading days now.
• Bear flags on major US and world indices.
• Oil above $100 and unrest in ME.

Tomorrow Bears will try to take SPX down below its 50 D-SMA (currently around 1294).   Chances are good that side money comes in and buys that dip, I know I would.

Tomorrow will be either a huge up day or a huge down day.  Best scenario is a moderate sell off to SPX 1294 initially, then finishing up with a big rally and closing above SPX 13 D-EMA (1317) with good volume.  I think Bulls will get their wish.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, A Crtitical Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today was not a good day for the bulls.  Tomorrow, there is a good chance for SPX to drop down to test its 50 D-SMA around lower 1290's.   I fully expect SPX to bounce off of its 50 D-SMA and close above 1300 which would be very bullish.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Market Looks Excellent .... Higher We Go

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

 

Everything is lined up for DJI and SPX to set new highs this week.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

New Highs for DJI and NDX Very Likely This Coming Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio


The 3.7% sell off in SPX last week didn't seem to be anything other than a garden variety bull market correction which was healthy and needed.  There is a good chance that we see new highs in DJI, NDX and possibly SPX next week.  Those new high must be confirmed by new highs in RUT and TRAN in a reasonable time period (3 to 5 trading days).

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

RTS Selling FCX and Buying TSO - Market Looks Excellent

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling FCX and buying TSO in its place on Tuesday 2/22/2011 at the open.

New closing highs in all major indices including TRAN prior to a 3 day weekend! That is bullish.  Market looks excellent and rally should continue.

Happy President's Day, I'm taking the entire next week off.  No trading, blogging or FB for me next week.  Good Luck.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Long Term - Market Looks Fantastic

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Believe it or not, as of close of today RUT is only 2.7% (22.46 points) away from its historical high (856.48 on 7/13/2007).  RUT reaching and exceeding its all time high would be extremely bullish and the likelihood of this bull market that started on March 6, 2009 continuing for another 2 to 3 years would be very high.  Of course there would be bull market corrections along the way, but this is one market you would not want  to short in the intermediate or long term basis.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

New Closing Highs For All Major Indices, Leaders and Followers

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

I think it's time to stop chasing this market and scale into long positions.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Retest of 13D EMA for SPX Very Likely Now

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today all major indices closed in red with lower highs and lower lows.  That increases the odds for a sell off tomorrow.  I expect SPX to test its 13D EMA, currently around 1316, either tomorrow or on Thursday.  I believe that would be a good point to scale into long positions.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Closing Highs For Nearly All Major Indices

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

I'm still waiting for an entry point.  Odds are good for a minor two day sell off starting as early as tomorrow.  SPX 1316 is a good target for opening new long positions.  We might see that on Wednesday.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

All Major Indices At New 52 Week Closing Highs

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

All major indices except for TRAN set new 52 week closing highs on Friday.  SPX broke out of a 3 day bull flag formation with good volume and breath.  That's just f*cking bullish no matter where you're coming from. 

There is a chance that we see SPX coming back and back test the upper channel line of that 3 day down trending price channel (bull flag formation) around 1325 and even possibly go lower and test the lower channel line around 1315.  Both dips are definitely opportunities to open new long positions.

I am buying tomorrow in my IT (first buy of 4) and LT (first buy of 3), hopefully as we pull back to the Immediate Support levels.  My plan is to buy:

In my IT: DIA, QQQQ, SPY and IWM (equal $, first of 4 buys for Feb 2011)

In my LT: DIA, QQQQ, SPY and IWM (equal $, first of 3 buys for Q1 2011)
Also in my LT: CIEN, RVBD, SWKS, PCX, TSO, NOV, MEE , JBL, NFLX, and BIDU (equal $, first of 3 buys for Q1 2011).

I'll post on FC Wall and Twitter as soon as I decide to buy.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Once Again It's All About Egypt - Risk Off The Table

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Heads we go up, tails we sell off.  It all dependends on what happens in Egypt tonight.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

CSCO Disappoints, Back Testing of SPX 1300 Very Likely This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Retest of psychologically support levels is very likely tomorrow or on Friday.  Those levels are SPX 1300, NAZ 2750, DOW 12000, RUT 800 and TRAN 5000.  I don't expect selling go behoynd those support levels.  I am planning to buy that dip in my IT and LT.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A 2% Sell Off Very Likely Sometime This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Major indices are setting new 52 week highs, but broader market is lagging behind.  In order for the bull run to continue, major indices must halt their advance, retreat by selling off 1% to 3%, and enter into a 2 to 5 day consolidation period to let broader market catch up.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Some Profit Taking Very Likely This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

All major indices, expect for TRAN, set new closing 52 week highs today.  That is very bullish and indicates that the bull run is intact and Market will continue climb higher.  I, however, believe before Market goes much higher than current levels, it needs to do a "sanity check" by retreating to back test some key levels.  Those levels are SPX 1300, NAZ 2750, DOW 12000, RUT 800 and TRAN 5000.  I think there is a very good chance we see some if not all of those numbers sometime this week.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Market Looks Excellent .... Higher We Go

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

As DJI, SPX and NDX set new 52 week closing highs on Friday, NAZ also joined the party and set a new 52 week closing high.  RUT will very likely set a new high tomorrow as Market rallies higher.  Any sell off at this point is a definite buying opportunity.  We might see a sell off early tomorrow to SPX lower 1300's and possibly to SPX 13D EMA around 1295.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Rally Very Likely Tomorrow, RUT And NAZ Need To Set New Highs

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Market very likely will rally to set new highs for SPX, DJI and NDX tomorrow.  What bulls love to see is that NAZ and RUT follow suit and set new highs as well.  I think chances are excellent for that to happen tomorrow.  Poor bears, they have to take yet another shellacking right before the weekend.

The only wild card is Egypt.  Thing are turning from bad to worse.  It's early Friday morning (Muslims' day of rest and prayer) there. Today things might get totally out of control resulting in 100's of deaths.  Market would sell off in that case and we could possibly see SPX testing its 13D EMA around lower 1290's.  I think that would be a good oppertunity to scale into long postions.  I would buy that dip, SPY, DIA, TWM and QQQQ.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Once Again The Fight Is On Tomorrow - Bulls Very Likely Winners Again

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Once again the fight is on.  If bears can't muster up a good sell off tomorrow (at least 1% down), then they're going to get crushed once again. A market that can't be pulled down will go up.  It's really that simple.

What bulls need urgently now is for NAZ and RUT set new 52 weeks highs if DJI and SPX rally again.  Also, number of individual issues setting new 52 week highs both in NASDAQ and NYSE must start to increase again as indices go higher.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Leaders Need To Follow Suit And Set New 52 Week Highs

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX and DJI set new 52 week highs today.  What we need now is leaders, NAZ, RUT and TRAN, to follow suit and set new 52 week highs too.  Very likely we'll see RUT and NAZ doing that tomorrow, TRAN still needs a few more days specially with oil also at a new 52 week high price.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Test of SPX Primary Up Trend Line Very Likely

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In order for Market to resume its bull run, SPX must successfully test its Primary Up Trend Line and then solidly close above the upper channel line of Down Trending Price Channel.  There is a good chance we see that happening tomorrow.  There is also the probability of close below Primary Up Trend Line which would be very bearish.  It's 50/50.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Egypt is the Unkown for Market

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Two things are worrying Market: (1) Would unrest spread to other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf Arab States (major oil producing countries)? (2) Would unrest delay or stop goods, specially oil, shipped through Suez Canal?

From what I've read (btw, http://www.juancole.com/ is an excellent source for ME news and analysis in my opinion), it's highly unlikely for unrest to spread to ME major oil producing countries.  Also so far, unrest and protests had very little impact on shipping in Suez Canal.  Once that becomes evident, Market  would rally from the oversold condition that it's in now.  That could happen as early as tomorrow  and SPX could rally to back test its 13D EMA around mid 1280's.

There is also a good chance for further selling if things get completely out of control in Egypt.  In that case, SPX very likely breaks through the Primary Uptrend Line, currently around 1270, and sells off to the lower channel line of the Down Trending Price Channel, around 1260.

Tomorrow, Jan 31, I'm hoping for a rally in SPX to retest its 13D EMA.  I would unload my IT positions into that rally if it happens.  Otherwise I will unload my IT positions sometime near close.

Face Book  

Twitter

opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.