SGS Market Timer Is NEUTRAL

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  NEUTRAL 
NEUTRAL as of close of  October 28, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

SPX is being supported by its Old PDL-0. Should that support fail this coming week, chances are high that SPX continues its sell off to test support at 50 and 100 W-SMA around 2060.

Shorter Term Outlook

Chances are high that SPX retests its Old PDL-0 again sometime this coming week.  Should that support fail, SPX very likely sells off to test its 200 D-SMA around 2085.

My Plan

My plan is to stay in cash for now.

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SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Grinding Up Into The Election

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Big Money hates Trump. There is a long history between Big Money and the Donald.  Big Money never thought much of him as a business man or otherwise.  In order to make sure Trump has absolutely no chance of winning, Big Money will push indices higher between now and the election.

I expect a slow grind upward. I don't expect any correction until Hillary is elected on November 8.  What happens to financial markets and the republican party after the election is not clear at all.  It could get nasty if there is no clear and final resolution to the election, similar to what happened in 2000.

Longer Term Outlook

Chances are high that selling continues this coming week as SPX tests its Old PDL-0 and AUL around 2115.  If those supports hold, I expect a rally to test SPX all time high.

Shorter Term Outlook

I expect a test of Old PDL-0 sometime this week around SPX 2115 to 2110.

My Plan

My plan to do my first buy of three buys around SPX 2115 sometime this week.

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opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Contested Presidential Election?

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

I see only two scenarios between now and the election day:

• (A - 80%) - Polls remain tight, giving a slight edge to either Trump or Clinton.  Clinton wins the election, but Trump would not concede and starts legal action to contest the election, 2000 Presidential Election all over again.  Market significantly corrects, all peaks should be sold.
• (B - 20%) - Clinton pulls ahead significantly. Trump quits.  All dips should be bought.
  

Longer Term Outlook

Chances are high that selling continues this coming week as SPX tests its PUL-2 around 2120.

Shorter Term Outlook

SPX hovered around its DLT and its 50 D-SAM last week.  At this point chances are good that SPX continues its selling this coming week to test test its AUL around 2150 and then its PUL-2  around 2120.

My Plan

My plan is to stay in cash for now.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

A Test Of SPX 2100 Is Coming Up

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

Chances are high that selling continues this coming week as SPX tests its PUL-2 around 2100.

Shorter Term Outlook

Everyday past week, SPX traded below its 50 D-SAM and DTL.  At this point chances are good for SPX continues its selling this coming week to first retest its Old PDL-0 and 100 D-SAM around 2120 the then its PUL-2  around 2100.

My Plan

No change, my plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells to tests its PUL-2 around 2100 sometime this coming week.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Presidential Election Uncertainties Are Creeping In

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

SPX sold off around 2.5% and closed below its DTL on its weekly chart, shown above.  Chances are high that selling continues this coming week as SPX tests its PUL-2 around 2100.

Shorter Term Outlook

SPX closed below its 50 D-SMA on Friday.  At this point chances are good for SPX continues its selling this coming week to first test its Old PDL-0 and 100 D-SAM around 2120 the then its PUL-2  around 2100.

My Plan

My plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells to tests its PUL-2 around 2100 sometime this week.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Is Volatlity Coming Back?

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

SPX has been trading in a narrow (60 point) range for the last 8 weeks.  This is very likely going to change starting this week as the US presidential election uncertainties begin creeping in.  Markets hate uncertainties and a Trump presidency, which is highly unlikely in my opinion, would significantly elevate those uncertainties.  Clinton, on the other hand, represents the status quo and continuation of Obama financial policies which have been super friendly to markets.

I see four scenarios between now and the election day:

• (A - 40%) - Clinton starts pulling ahead of Trump by double digits.  Under this scenario every dip in indices is a buying opportunity.
• (B - 35%) - Polls remain tight, giving a slight edge to either Trump or Clinton.  Under this scenario also, every dip in indices is a buying opportunity.
• (C - 20%) - Clinton pulls ahead significantly. Trump quits.  Again, all dips should be bought.
• (D - 5%) - Trump pulls ahead significantly signalling a possible win by Trump.  Markets would suffer and probably crash if Trump gets elected.

Longer Term Outlook

No change since last week.  Again on Friday, SPX tested the lower channel line of its bear flag formation (shown in above weekly chart in pink).  Chances are high that selling continues in the next couple of weeks and as SPX tests its DTL (13 EMA) around 2150.  A close below DTL this week would signal more selling as SPX tests its PUL-2 around 2100.

Shorter Term Outlook

Again no change since last week, indices are still overbought.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to test its 50 D-SMA around 2150.  Should selling gets panicky, there is a good chance that SPX drops down to 2120 intraday.

My Plan

No change, my plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells to tests its 50 D-SAM around 2150.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Again, Selling Very Likely Continues

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

Longer term (weeks to months), after a quick sell off in the next couple of weeks, SPX very likely rallies until the US presidential election as Clinton pulls ahead of Trump in polls.  I still think that there is a chance (20%) that Trump quits the race as it becomes mathematically impossible for him to win the election.  Once the probability of Trump winning the election falls below 15%, we should see Trump try to weasel out of the election so he wouldn't face an embarrassing defeat on November 8.

On Friday, SPX tested the lower channel line of its bear flag formation (shown in above weekly chart in pink).  Chances are high that selling continues in the next of couple weeks and as SPX tests its DTL (13 EMA) around 2150.  A close below DTL this week would signal more selling as SPX tests its PUL-2 around 2100.

Shorter Term Outlook

No change since last week, indices are still overbought.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to test its 50 D-SMA around 2150.  Should selling gets panicky, there is a good chance that SPX drops down to 2120 intraday.

My Plan

My plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells to tests its 50 D-SAM around 2150.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Selling Very Likely Continues

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of close of  July 22, 2016
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer Term Outlook

Longer term (weeks to months), there is no doubt that Big Money wants Hillary in the White House, so as it becomes more and more clear that Donald has no plan to win, indices would rally between now and the election.

Shorter Term Outlook

No change since last week, indices are quite overbought.  Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to test its 50 D-SMA around 2140.

My Plan

My plan still is to open long positions in SPY.  I'm planning to open my first of three long positions in SPY sometime this week as SPX sells off to test its 50 D-SMA around 2140.

twitter

opader@gmail.com

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.