Sunday, April 27, 2014

It's Still 70 - 30

Needs to be updated for recent trades

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

SPX tried hard to get through the 1870-1890 resistance band last week, but by Friday it gave up, sold off, tested its 20 D-SMA and closed slightly above it.
Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off  last week has put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern.  After a minor sell off on Monday and a successful test of 50 D-SMA, SPX rallies through its immediate resistance band to reach new all time highs by Thursday or Friday.

Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), after an unsuccessful attempt to punch through resistance at 1870, selling picks up momentum and continues to test 100 D-SMA, recent low (1814) and PUL for SPX around 1800.  A weekly close below PUL would be game changer and would signal a high probability of significant selling ahead.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.