Saturday, August 29, 2015

To Raise Or Not To Raise

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of close of 7/24/2015

RTS Current Portfolio (2015)
Updated for recent trades
A combination of panic selling and forced margin liquidation hit the market on Monday (at the open) and again on Tuesday (near the close).  SPX sold off hard twice down to 1867, putting in place a 12.5% correction from its May all time high (2134).  There were reports that indices would have dropped substantially lower on Monday and Tuesday had not been for the US Plunge Protection Team intervening.

By week's end, SPX managed to cut its losses considerably and closed only 11 points shy of 2000.

Going forward, the uncertainty of the Fed's decision regarding interest rates is going to push indices lower and higher for the next couple of weeks.  Once FOMC decision is announced (very likely an increase of 0.25%), indices very likely sell off hard until late October when SPX tests its PUL-0 around 1720.

My Plan:

In the panic selling of last Monday, I covered all short positions in my long term portfolio. I am in cash now and waiting for opportunities to open new short positions.  My plan is to do three shorts sells in SPY and QQQ (equal $ amount).  I will probably do my first short sell sometime on Monday.

SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.