Sunday, May 15, 2022

It would be Silly

SGS  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Friday April 8, 2022
Previous SGS Status
SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
Why Market Timing Is A Must

Since late 2008, when Ben Bernanke put Modern Monetary Theory to work to save the US and global economy, every multi-month rally in indices was caused by implementation of a new round of "Quantitative Easing" (QE) by the Federal Reserve.  Conversely, with the exception of the decline due to Covid-19 in 2020, every multi-month sell-off in indices happened between the time that the current round of QE ended and a new round QE started.  So if all of that QE (from Oct 2008 to Feb 2022, with mother of all QE's in 2020) caused the dramatic rise in indices, now that there is no more QE, and in fact the Fed is about to start a Quantitative  Tightening (QT) program in June while raising interest rates, it would be silly to expect indices to go higher.  

There is an excellent chance that indices continue to go lower until the Fed reverses course and, at the minimum, stops its QT program all together. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/13), the value of SGS was calculated to be -927 and the status of SGS remains SHORT. 

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above. 

My Plan

My plan is to stay with my positions for now. 


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.