Sunday, February 19, 2023

5% And %5

SGS Market Timer Status:  LONG 
LONG as of the close of Friday February 17, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data (New)
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The only way the Fed could possibly bring inflation down to their target (2%) is to crush the economy and push unemployment rate to somewhere between 8% to 10%. So, are they going to do that? Not likely because raising the Fud funds rate beyond 6% and it keeping there even for a couple of quarters would balloon the budget deficit to over $1.5 trillion in 2024 and over $2.0 trillion in 2025.

Indices are very likely on a new bull leg and will continue going higher because there is a good chance now that the market has accepted the fact that an average inflation rate of 5% and average long-term interest rate of 5% are the new norm. The era of "free money", i.e. under 3% interest rates, is over.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (2/17), the value of SGS was calculated to be +71.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to LONG.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.  

My Plan

I didn't close any of my long positions last week. 
With SGS changing its status to LONG now, I'm planning to buy XLF (10%) and XLV (10%) sometime this week.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.