Once Again The Fight Is On Tomorrow - Bulls Very Likely Winners Again

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

The Positives: 

• All major indices expect for TRAN are still above their 50 D-SMA.
• Average and even below average volume on down days.
• Number of new lows not expanding on NYSE or NASDAQ on down days.
• No panic selling of large or small caps on down days.

The Negatives:

• TRAN below its 50 D-SMA for 7 trading days now.
• Bear flags on major US and world indices.
• Oil above $100 and unrest in ME.

Tomorrow Bears will try to take SPX down below its 50 D-SMA (currently around 1294).   Chances are good that side money comes in and buys that dip, I know I would.

Tomorrow will be either a huge up day or a huge down day.  Best scenario is a moderate sell off to SPX 1294 initially, then finishing up with a big rally and closing above SPX 13 D-EMA (1317) with good volume.  I think Bulls will get their wish.

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Tomorrow, Wednesday, A Crtitical Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today was not a good day for the bulls.  Tomorrow, there is a good chance for SPX to drop down to test its 50 D-SMA around lower 1290's.   I fully expect SPX to bounce off of its 50 D-SMA and close above 1300 which would be very bullish.

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Market Looks Excellent .... Higher We Go

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

 

Everything is lined up for DJI and SPX to set new highs this week.

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New Highs for DJI and NDX Very Likely This Coming Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio


The 3.7% sell off in SPX last week didn't seem to be anything other than a garden variety bull market correction which was healthy and needed.  There is a good chance that we see new highs in DJI, NDX and possibly SPX next week.  Those new high must be confirmed by new highs in RUT and TRAN in a reasonable time period (3 to 5 trading days).

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RTS Selling FCX and Buying TSO - Market Looks Excellent

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling FCX and buying TSO in its place on Tuesday 2/22/2011 at the open.

New closing highs in all major indices including TRAN prior to a 3 day weekend! That is bullish.  Market looks excellent and rally should continue.

Happy President's Day, I'm taking the entire next week off.  No trading, blogging or FB for me next week.  Good Luck.

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Long Term - Market Looks Fantastic

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Believe it or not, as of close of today RUT is only 2.7% (22.46 points) away from its historical high (856.48 on 7/13/2007).  RUT reaching and exceeding its all time high would be extremely bullish and the likelihood of this bull market that started on March 6, 2009 continuing for another 2 to 3 years would be very high.  Of course there would be bull market corrections along the way, but this is one market you would not want  to short in the intermediate or long term basis.

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New Closing Highs For All Major Indices, Leaders and Followers

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

I think it's time to stop chasing this market and scale into long positions.

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A Retest of 13D EMA for SPX Very Likely Now

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today all major indices closed in red with lower highs and lower lows.  That increases the odds for a sell off tomorrow.  I expect SPX to test its 13D EMA, currently around 1316, either tomorrow or on Thursday.  I believe that would be a good point to scale into long positions.

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Closing Highs For Nearly All Major Indices

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

I'm still waiting for an entry point.  Odds are good for a minor two day sell off starting as early as tomorrow.  SPX 1316 is a good target for opening new long positions.  We might see that on Wednesday.

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All Major Indices At New 52 Week Closing Highs

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

All major indices except for TRAN set new 52 week closing highs on Friday.  SPX broke out of a 3 day bull flag formation with good volume and breath.  That's just f*cking bullish no matter where you're coming from. 

There is a chance that we see SPX coming back and back test the upper channel line of that 3 day down trending price channel (bull flag formation) around 1325 and even possibly go lower and test the lower channel line around 1315.  Both dips are definitely opportunities to open new long positions.

I am buying tomorrow in my IT (first buy of 4) and LT (first buy of 3), hopefully as we pull back to the Immediate Support levels.  My plan is to buy:

In my IT: DIA, QQQQ, SPY and IWM (equal $, first of 4 buys for Feb 2011)

In my LT: DIA, QQQQ, SPY and IWM (equal $, first of 3 buys for Q1 2011)
Also in my LT: CIEN, RVBD, SWKS, PCX, TSO, NOV, MEE , JBL, NFLX, and BIDU (equal $, first of 3 buys for Q1 2011).

I'll post on FC Wall and Twitter as soon as I decide to buy.

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Once Again It's All About Egypt - Risk Off The Table

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Heads we go up, tails we sell off.  It all dependends on what happens in Egypt tonight.

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CSCO Disappoints, Back Testing of SPX 1300 Very Likely This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Retest of psychologically support levels is very likely tomorrow or on Friday.  Those levels are SPX 1300, NAZ 2750, DOW 12000, RUT 800 and TRAN 5000.  I don't expect selling go behoynd those support levels.  I am planning to buy that dip in my IT and LT.

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A 2% Sell Off Very Likely Sometime This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Major indices are setting new 52 week highs, but broader market is lagging behind.  In order for the bull run to continue, major indices must halt their advance, retreat by selling off 1% to 3%, and enter into a 2 to 5 day consolidation period to let broader market catch up.

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Some Profit Taking Very Likely This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

All major indices, expect for TRAN, set new closing 52 week highs today.  That is very bullish and indicates that the bull run is intact and Market will continue climb higher.  I, however, believe before Market goes much higher than current levels, it needs to do a "sanity check" by retreating to back test some key levels.  Those levels are SPX 1300, NAZ 2750, DOW 12000, RUT 800 and TRAN 5000.  I think there is a very good chance we see some if not all of those numbers sometime this week.

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Market Looks Excellent .... Higher We Go

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

As DJI, SPX and NDX set new 52 week closing highs on Friday, NAZ also joined the party and set a new 52 week closing high.  RUT will very likely set a new high tomorrow as Market rallies higher.  Any sell off at this point is a definite buying opportunity.  We might see a sell off early tomorrow to SPX lower 1300's and possibly to SPX 13D EMA around 1295.

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A Rally Very Likely Tomorrow, RUT And NAZ Need To Set New Highs

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Market very likely will rally to set new highs for SPX, DJI and NDX tomorrow.  What bulls love to see is that NAZ and RUT follow suit and set new highs as well.  I think chances are excellent for that to happen tomorrow.  Poor bears, they have to take yet another shellacking right before the weekend.

The only wild card is Egypt.  Thing are turning from bad to worse.  It's early Friday morning (Muslims' day of rest and prayer) there. Today things might get totally out of control resulting in 100's of deaths.  Market would sell off in that case and we could possibly see SPX testing its 13D EMA around lower 1290's.  I think that would be a good oppertunity to scale into long postions.  I would buy that dip, SPY, DIA, TWM and QQQQ.

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Once Again The Fight Is On Tomorrow - Bulls Very Likely Winners Again

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Once again the fight is on.  If bears can't muster up a good sell off tomorrow (at least 1% down), then they're going to get crushed once again. A market that can't be pulled down will go up.  It's really that simple.

What bulls need urgently now is for NAZ and RUT set new 52 weeks highs if DJI and SPX rally again.  Also, number of individual issues setting new 52 week highs both in NASDAQ and NYSE must start to increase again as indices go higher.

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Leaders Need To Follow Suit And Set New 52 Week Highs

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX and DJI set new 52 week highs today.  What we need now is leaders, NAZ, RUT and TRAN, to follow suit and set new 52 week highs too.  Very likely we'll see RUT and NAZ doing that tomorrow, TRAN still needs a few more days specially with oil also at a new 52 week high price.

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A Test of SPX Primary Up Trend Line Very Likely

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In order for Market to resume its bull run, SPX must successfully test its Primary Up Trend Line and then solidly close above the upper channel line of Down Trending Price Channel.  There is a good chance we see that happening tomorrow.  There is also the probability of close below Primary Up Trend Line which would be very bearish.  It's 50/50.

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Egypt is the Unkown for Market

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Two things are worrying Market: (1) Would unrest spread to other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf Arab States (major oil producing countries)? (2) Would unrest delay or stop goods, specially oil, shipped through Suez Canal?

From what I've read (btw, http://www.juancole.com/ is an excellent source for ME news and analysis in my opinion), it's highly unlikely for unrest to spread to ME major oil producing countries.  Also so far, unrest and protests had very little impact on shipping in Suez Canal.  Once that becomes evident, Market  would rally from the oversold condition that it's in now.  That could happen as early as tomorrow  and SPX could rally to back test its 13D EMA around mid 1280's.

There is also a good chance for further selling if things get completely out of control in Egypt.  In that case, SPX very likely breaks through the Primary Uptrend Line, currently around 1270, and sells off to the lower channel line of the Down Trending Price Channel, around 1260.

Tomorrow, Jan 31, I'm hoping for a rally in SPX to retest its 13D EMA.  I would unload my IT positions into that rally if it happens.  Otherwise I will unload my IT positions sometime near close.

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Situation in Egypt is the Wild Card for Tomorrow.

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Externally and internally, Market looks excellent.  If things get nasty in Egypt over night, Market could sell off tomorrow down to lower 1290's to mid 1280's.  I think that dip is an excellent opportunity to add more long positions.  Personally I think Market will rally possibly to SPX 1314. I'm planning to unload my ST and IT into that rally if we get it.

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RTS Selling ACI and Buying CEIN on Thursday 1/27/11 at Open

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

In RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio, RTS is selling ACI and buying CIEN in its place today Thursday 1/27/2011 at the open.

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SPX Broke Through And Set A New 52 Week High

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today was an all around good day and 52 week new highs were set for SPX and Dow.  SPX broke through a secondary resistance line which would act as support should we get a "profit taking" intraday sell off which is very likely sometime this week.  What's really needed now is new highs for NAZ, RUT and TRAN, still very likely this week.

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Indices Sold Off and Came Back to Close Green ... Impressive

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Major indices came back from about 1% loss today to close either flat or green.  That was impressive.  Tomorrow SPX very likely will break through the resistance line and set a new 52 week high.

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Leaders Led Today -- That's A Good Sign

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Today was a good day for bulls.  Leaders, TRAN, NAZ and RUT, nicely led.  Dow closed at a new 52 week high, SPX and NDX should follow suit soon.  What's needed now for the bull run to continue higher, are new highs for the leaders.  I think we'll see that sometime next week if not this week.

In my LT, I'm dumping AIG tomorrow and replacing it with NFLX.

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Tomorrow, Monday, Another Critical Day for Bulls

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

The leaders, RUT, TRAN and NAZ need to rally tomorrow or the bull run since late August 2010 is going to be in trouble.

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Tomorrow, Friday, A Critical Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Tomorrow is critical day.  Too much damage has been done already to TRAN, RUT and NAZ.  SPX is still holding up well, but it might crack tomorrow too.  A solid close at lower 1270's or lower would be very bearish, a solid close in upper 1280's or higher would be very bullish.  Market will tell us where she stands by close tomorrow.

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Sell Off Today - A Classical Profit Taking?

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Despite a 2.5% drop in RUT, there was no wholesale liquidation in small or large caps except for a handful of issues with disappointing earnings reports.  Naz tested its 13D EMA and closed above it.  SPX tested its most immediate support and closed above it as well.  Primary trend lines in all major indices, except for RUT and TRAN, are intact.

RUT and TRAN closed solidly below their 13D EMA's and their primary up trend lines.  On the face of it that's negative and points to more selling to come tomorrow, but when their gains since late August 2010 (34% for RUT and 31% for TRAN) are considered, one can conclude that today's sell off was nothing but an healthy and much needed profit taking.

I'm planning to buy this dip at some point either on Thr or Fri.  That buy would be the 3rd of 4 buys for my IT and 3rd and final buy for my LT.  I'll post on FC and Twitter as I buy.

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SPX Looks Excellent

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Possible range for SPX is shown above.

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Tomorrow, Tuesday, Another Buying Opportunity

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

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Tomorrow, A Critical Day

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX successfully tested its most immediate support line today.  I believe that decline was due to profit taking.  Tomorrow is a critical day and SPX needs to close above today's low.  A close below today's low by SPX and other major indices signals more selling to come next week.

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Market Looks Really Good Now

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

I think what's happening is that inflation is beginning to really show its ugly head. So side money has to be exposed to more risk or inflation is going to eat it up.  This means more money is finding its way to equities.

Chances are good for a little sell off (profit taking) either tomorrow or on Friday.  I'll buy that dip if it happens.  I'll post on my FB wall as I buy.

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A Melt Up .... Possibly Tomorrow With Europe's Help

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Once again the fight is on for tomorrow.  I think bulls are going to have pulled bear meat with hot jalapenos sandwiches for lunch (Texan way, more specifically Austin's Whole Foods Market).  All we need is a tamed Portuguese bond auction.  I'll be watching Europe tomorrow before open.

Today, leaders TRAN and NDX put in new highs and Naz followed suit.  Tomorrow I think we'll see new highs in SPX  and with a little bit of luck in RUT.  That would be really nice.

If things don't go bulls' way, then a trip down to 13D EMA is very much in the cards for SPX.

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SPX Sucessfully Tested Its 13D EMA

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX retested its 13D EMA and also put in a higher low for the day which is bullish.  I missed that buying opportunity.  SPX very likely will break through and close above the recent minor down-trend line.  Once that occurs, there is a good chance that SPX dips down again to back test that resistance (acting as a support after breakout).  That would be another good entry point for opening more long positions.

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A Retest of Lower Price Channel Line and 13D EMA for SPX Likely Tomorrow

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

SPX very likely dips down to its lower price channel line and possibly to its 13D EMA tomorrow.  If that happens and not much selling occurs in the broader market, then that dip would present a good opportunity to scale into more long positions.  More on my FB Wall tomorrow during trading hours.

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SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio
 

Tomorrow is either a huge up day or a moderately down day depending on unemploymnet data which  to be released at 8:30 AM.  I believe we'll have a strong rally.

Per my plan, I scaled into long positions in my LT and IT portfolios.

VSG IT

VSG LT
 

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Dips Are Bought With Vengeance

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

It's time to put money to work.  .  My plan is to go long with 1/3 of my LT and 1/4 of my IT.  For LT, I'm going to split 50/50 long positions between RTS stocks and index ETF's.  For IT, I am buying into index ETF's.

10 RTS Stocks I like are: RVBD, LYB, PCX, TCK, MEE, CIEN, FCX, LVS, AIG , SWKS and NOV
(edited on 1/6/11, 5:50 AM PST, LVS out NOV in)

4 Index ETF's I like are: DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM.
Equal $ in each position.

Tomorrow I'll post on my FB Wall and Twitter when I put my market orders in.

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Tax Selling Started Today And Very Likely Continues

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio
 

My guess is that selling will continue tomorrow, again mostly in small caps with double or triple digit % gains in 2010.

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A Bull Market Correction Possibly Starts This Week

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Chances are good that we see a correction in major indices sometime this week, possibly as early as tomorrow.  It's best to give Market another day or two to consolidate and then set a direction either up or down.

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Major Indices Look Topped Out

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Market looks topped out and tired.  SPX very likely tests its 13D EMA (around 1250) tomorrow.  If not much selling occurs in individual stocks as SPX dips down to 1251 to 1250, then that dip is a good place to scale into long positions.  If selling is broad and heavy, SPX very likely goes down more to test its primary uptrend line later in the week.

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RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio (New)

SGS is Long (as of close of 12/1/2010)
RTS 20110103 Long Portfolio

Tomorrow at the open, RTS will open new long positions (buys long) in the following 10 stocks:

RVBD  LYB  SLW  TCK  FCX  NOV  MEE  MOS  ACI  PCX

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