Is SPX Going To Test Its 50D SMA Soon?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

RTS will sell DFS and buy AMZN in its place tomorrow at the open.

My Long Term Portfolio (In Cash since 10/12/2011)

Cash indices were dragged down significantly as Big Money sold index contracts and call options ahead of OPEX this Friday.  Big Money isn't liquidating his long positions, at least not yet.

There is no point opening any position (long or short) in this market so long as SPX is sandwiched between 1230 and its 50D SMA, currently around lower 1170's.  Chances are good that we see SPX tests its 50D SMA sometime this week, even as early as tomorrow.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Internal Data Is Beginning To Look Better

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio (In Cash)

Indices have started to trade in a more sustainable uptrend channel (shown in purple for SPX).  At the same time the number of new highs increased nicely  for both NYSE and NAZ on Friday.  I think if SPX gets through 1230 with a relatively good volume and an increasing number of  new highs, we could see a rally to test  Primary Down Trend Line (shown in orange) between now and Thanksgiving.  I would be scaling into long positions again on pull backs to test the lower line of the new price channel (shown in purple).

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A Swoosh Down To SPX 1170?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

 
My Long Term Portfolio (In Cash)

All five major indices put in a lower low today. Except for NAZ, they also closed at a lower close.  There is a good chance that we see bears come out tomorrow.  If earnings disappoints tomorrow, a quick swoosh down to 50D SMA for SPX  around 1170 is very much in the cards.

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Is Current Bear Market Rally About Done?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
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My Long Term Portfolio (In Cash)

Per my plan I closed all my long positions today.

Expect for SPX, all four other major indices have now broken out and closed above their recent trading range.  The bulls are now ready to take charge and lead indices higher, but there are no sectors leading the  way.  That lack of leadership is a telltale sign that the recent sharp rally (started on 10/4) is a bear market rally and very likely would be short lived.

Indices are over bought and they very likely will sell off to back test their 50D SMA sometime this week.

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Market Internal Data Is Not Confirming Recent Sharp Rally

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

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Today NAZ, DJI, SPX and DJT traded above their 50D SMA for the second day in a row.  Also today, RUT closed slightly above its 50D SMA.  Market internal data including volume, however, is not painting a bullish picture.

My plan is to unload my LT portfolio somewhere around 1209 to 1214, hopefully sometime tomorrow.

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SPX Getting Close To The Top Of Its Trading Range

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark) 

 
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All major indices, except for RUT, closed solidly above their 50D SMA.  I think there is a good chance that we see SPX rally early in the day tomorrow and test the upper channel line of its trading range around 1210.  My plan is to unload my LT portfolio at that point, somewhere around 1209 to 1214.

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Big Money's Big Dilemma (((())))

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark) 

 
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I changed my FB profile so that my status and comments are public. http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001563450122

Since late 2007 there has been an on-going war between Big Money and hedge funds.  In 2008-2009 crash, Big Money saw to it that hedge fund industry suffers greatly and as a result a number of hedge funds either went under or lost a great deal of their money and investors. In recent quarters, hedge funds have lost a great deal of money again and Big Money could put the final nail in coffins of a number hedge funds by dragging indices substantially down and create another mini financial crisis, but he has a dilemma.  His dilemma is that  another financial crisis would mean losing possibly another generation of retail investors.  I have no idea how he's going to play his cards now and how he intends to close the year.

Indices are all coming up against their 50D SMA.  SPX very likely test its 50D SMA around 1180 tomorrow.  If SPX can manage to break through and trade above its 50D SMA for the rest of the week, the likelihood of SPX testing the upper channel of its two month trading range (thick brown) around 1210 sometime next week is high.  At this point I believe that would be a good place to close long positions and go into cash.

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Show Me The Money Or Else

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark) 

 
My Long Term Portfolio

Indices rallied and closed right around their 20D SMA as expected.  Tomorrow bears have a chance to take indices way down if unemployment data massively disappoints.  Otherwise, indices will make an attempt to test their 50D SMA.  For SPX, that would be trading around 1180.

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SPX Is About To Test Its 20 D-SMA

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

 

Major indices are all about to test their 20 D-SMA either tomorrow or on Friday.  The 20 D-SMA for SPX is around 1160.  We very likely see SPX trading at or near that resistance sometime this week.

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Bulls Got A Close Above SPX 1100 And Then Some

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 

RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

The rally in the last 30 minutes of trading today was most impressive.  It wasn't just a short covering rally, side money flowed in at an impressive scale.  The likelihood of the rally continuing for the rest of this week is very high.

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Bulls Need A Close Above SPX 1100 Today

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

I didn't get a chance to update my blog last night.  Today (Tuesday) cash indices are simply reacting to what's going on in the futures.  Big Money is not liquidating long positions, but hedging by selling index future contracts.

SPX closed below 1100 yesterday.  Bulls need a close at or above that key support level today.  Let's see where close today.

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A Bottom Is Very Likely In Place

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

 

A bottom appears to be developing.  The likelihood of SPX breaking through early August lows (around 1100) is very low now.

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Big Money Is Not Selling

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

 

Cash indices are pushed up and dragged down dramatically via their future contracts these days, but there is absolutely no sign that Big Money is liquidating his long positions.  So long as Big Money is not unloading, the down side risk for is limited.  Steep sell offs are buying opportunities.

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Downside Risk Is Very Limited

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

From my FB page yesterday prior to close:

There is no selling by Big Money today. A few things were panicky sold, but got pick up nicely.  Downside risk is limited imo. This is a buying opportunity.

17 hours ago

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The Rally Very Likely Continues Tomorrow

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

Despite today's disappointing close, there is an excellent chance that the rally continues tomorrow.

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Very Impressive Rally Today

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

Today's rally was impressive.  I expect it to continue and regain all last week's losses within the next couple of trading days.

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Close Is Everything

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio

I'm all in long now, 50% in indices and 50% in RTS stocks.

 

 Futures look good, let's see where we close today.

 

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Once Again Cash Indices Are Dragged Down via Their Future Contracts

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio
I'm buying my 3rd and last buy of RTS stocks at the open today  (Thr)

 

In the last few trading days, there has been no or very little wholesale liquidation by Big Money.   Cash indices are dragged down via their future contracts, creating an excellent buying opportunity.

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Market Looks Good

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio
Doubled down on RTS stocks on 9/9.  My LT Portfolio is now  invested 50% in index ETF's, 33% in RTS Stocks and 17% in cash.  Still waiting to buy my last buy of RTS stocks.

A very bullish pattern has emerged in the last two trading days where indices close near their HOD after sharp sell offs earlier in the day.  Sell offs are happening on relatively low volume and without participation of major players (i.e. Big Money).  These sell offs are buying opportunities.

I'm away until Sat 5/24.  I'm not going to post everyday.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Expecting A Sell Off Tomorrow, Possibly A Good Buying Opportunity

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio
Still waiting to open more long positions

There is a good chance that we see a 1.5% to 2% drop in indices tomorrow.  I think that would be a good place to open more long positions.

I'm taking a couple of weeks off.  I'm not going to post everyday, only as needed.

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SPX Is On Its Way To Test 1210-1215 Resistance Band

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)
 
My Long Term Portfolio
Still waiting to open more long positions

Indices closed at their highs of the day, that's always bullish.  Also, volume picked up as we neared close, another bullish sign

I think there is a good chance tomorrow that we see SPX testing its resistance band between 1210 -1215.  On Friday I expect money to come off the table as we go into the 911 10th anniversary weekend.  Also on Friday indices might sell off hard, specially if Obama disappoints (almost a certainty) in his speech tomorrow night.

My plan is to cover my SPY puts as indices rally early in the day tomorrow.  On Friday if indices are push down hard via their futures, I would do my 2nd buy of 10 RTS stocks.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

SPX Successfully Tested Important Support At 1140

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $) and 16% in 10 RTS Stocks
Planning to add more  long positions at SPX 1121

SPX successfully tested its most recent up-trend line.  Today's recovery into the close from earlier sell off was impressive.   With a little bit of help from Europe tonight, indices should recover most of their last week's losses this week.

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It's All About Europe Again. Where Are Their 3 Stooges, Hank, Tim and Ben?

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)
On Friday I bought my first buy of RTS stocks at SPX 1176.

Europe got hit big today, specially European banks who are to lose a great deal of money unless they're made whole by European Governments (more like one government and that's Germany).  The issue with those governments is that they are not as corrupt as ours so socializing big private companies' losses and debt obligations won't be as easy it was when GW, Dick, Hank, Tim  and Ben did it in 2008.

I think what's happening in Europe will be turn out to be bullish for our markets.  Money will leave Europe and find its way to US markets.  Downside risk is very limited and sells offs during this month are buying opportunities.  My plan is to do more buying (RTS stocks) if I see indices sell off better than 2.5% during the day this week.

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SPX To Back Test Symmetric Triangle Price Formation

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

I have not bought RTS stocks, planning to buy first of three buys tomorrow as SPX trades at lower 1190's.  I'm planning to buy: EXPE  AMZN  NEM  MCD  M  AXP  BMY  PPL  DFS and  KO

 

On 8/29 SPX broke out of a Symmetric Triangle formation (thick blue) and closed above it.  SPX is coming back down to back test that formation at mid 1190's, very likely tomorrow shortly after open.  Chances are excellent for SPX successfully back test the formation and then rally back to challenge its recent high of 1230 sometime next week.

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