Saturday, April 19, 2014

SPX Is Getting Ready For Another New All Time High?

Needs to be updated for recent trades

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

As expected all major indices rallied significantly last week.  On Wednesday SPX bulldozed through its PDL, continued its rally on Thursday and closed just below its resistance band (highlighted in orange).  Getting through that band is not going to be easy.  There certainly will be at least one or two unsuccessful attempts early this coming week.  Chances are good that SPX gaps up on Monday into the resistance band, then sells off to back test its 20 and possibly 50 D-SMA's. 

Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off early in the week, would put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern.  A rally after the sell off and a close above the neckline (SPX 1780) of that Inverse H&S, would signal a powerful advance to SPX 1925 by late April.

Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), the sell early in the week picks up momentum and continues to PUL to retest recent lows.
 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, April 13, 2014

Indices Are Oversold

RTS is selling SNDK and buying EXC in its place on Monday 4/14/2014 near the open.
My plan is to buy EXC, but wait on selling SNDK to see if SPX rallies back to its PDL.

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

It was an ugly week for bulls, but I believe we are at or near the bottom of current selling leg.  There is a good chance that we see more selling tomorrow to test Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) for SPX around 1810 and possibly an intraday panic to slightly below 1800.  After that, SPX very likely rallies to test  its new Primary Downtrend Line and back test its 50 D-SMA around 1840.

The level of "doom and gloom" noise is at extreme high now which in itself is a good sign for bulls.  It's always easy to come up with some idiotic doomsday prediction (without specifying any date for that prediction, of course) and disappear, then to reappear at some point in the future only if that prediction comes true to brag and shout "I told you so".

From a macro point of view, nothing has really changed.  Central banks are very accommodating and have stated that they would step in aggressively to stimulate growth if needed.  Inflation is in check.   US economy is growing at a healthy rate of 3%.  If earnings and forecast continue to be good, chances are good that indices rally back to set new highs.

At this point I believe there is one event that could send our economy into a deep recession and bring about a mutli-year bear market.  That event is a victory by Reps in November mid-term election to gain majority in both houses of Congress.  In that case, we would see the House starting an impeachment process.  We might also see another attempt at shutting down the government and even defaulting on national debt.  More on that later.
 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

RTS Portfolios Are All Update Finally :)



Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, April 6, 2014

Tough Week Is Ahead For Bulls



SPX found support on its Active Uptrend Line and 20 D-SMA last Friday.  A close below AUL tomorrow would signal a test of 50 and possibly 100 D-SMA this coming week.   There is a good chance, however, that after a quick sell off early Monday, SPX rallies to test overhead resistance at its recent new all time highs. 


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Monday, March 31, 2014

RTS is Selling TSLA and Buying ORCL

RTS is selling TSLA and buying ORCL in its place on Tuesday 4/1/2014 near the open.
Today I sold FB and bought HAL, still waiting on selling MU, ALXN and buying EXPE, CVS.  My plan is get all RTS trades done within the next couple of days.
Today was a good day for bulls. SPX closed above its PDL, nicely above its 20 D-SMA and 0.6% from its all time high.  RUT closed nicely above its 50 D-SMA.  Both DJI and DJT closed above their 20 D-SMA's and less than 1% from their all time highs.  NAZ tagged its 50 D-SMA and is getting ready to break through it.

Everything now points to companies reporting good earnings and outlook.  Chances are good the rally that started today continues for a few more days.
 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 30, 2014

Indices Are Oversold, Expecting A Sizable Bounce This Week

RTS is selling  FB, ALXN, MU and buying EXPE, HAL, CVS in their places on Monday near the open.
My plan to do all three buys near the open tomorrow then wait until mi-week to sell. 


  
Action on Friday was certainly disappointing, but all major indices still managed to close nicely into green.  As of close of last Friday, major indices are oversold.  I expect a rally this week that would push SPX to test its Primary Downtrend Line (PDL) around 1874, possibly as early as tomorrow.

There is an awful lot of doom and gloom noise out there these days, but ultimately it's the first quarter earnings and forecasts that would either send indices to new highs or cause a major correction.  So far all signs on my radar point to good earnings and outlook for most companies.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Monday, March 24, 2014

RTS is Selling NFLX and Buying SNDK

RTS is Selling NFLX and Buying SNDK in its place on Tuesday 3/25/2014 near the open.
Updated for recent transactions
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

Today Big Money was pretty busy churning positions and buying whatever  that was sold in a panic.  NAZ managed to cut its losses and close nicely above its 50 D-SMA.  As of close of today, all major indices are comfortably trading above their 50 D-SMA.  The bull market is quite intact and bulls don't have much to worry about. 

First quarter earnings and forecasts are going to either tank the market or send it much much higher. Base on Big Money's daily actions that I have seen so far, chances of breaking to upside is considerably higher.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 23, 2014

Uptrend In Indices Is Well Intact

RTS is selling  CTSH , YHOO and buying GMCR, HPQ in their places on Monday near the open


  
Last Friday SPX put in a new all time high before quadruple witching selling hit the market, especially Nasdaq high fliers.  Chances are good that indices go sideways for another week before they start going higher again.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 16, 2014

Once Again Doom And Gloom Is Abound .... Another Buying Opportunity

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Updated for 0.5 buy on 3/13
RTS is selling VOD and buying TSLA in its place on Monday near the open
(VOD initial buy on 3/7 was a computational error due to Reuters erroneous EOD data for VOD)

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Updated for 0.5 buy on 3/13

  
DJI not only did not confirm highs in other four major indices (DJT, NAZ, RUT and SPX), but also lead indices lower last week.  That was certainly disappointing for bulls, but does not mean the beginning of the end for the bull run.  Major indices are on average are only 2.6% down from their all time highs.  Again that's 2.6%, not 26%  as fear mongering doom and gloomers want us to believe.  

Facts are:
  • All Major indices are trading above their 100 and 200 D-SMA.  In fact, all major indices, except for DJI, are trading above their 50 D-SMA.
  • New 52 week highs out numbered new 52 week lows everyday last week both on NYSE and Nasdaq.
  • QE Infinity is still pumping $65 billion a month into our economy and very likely will continue for a while.  The Fed would not hesitate to substantially increase the monthly QE amount if signs of deflation are seen in our economy.
  • Economically speaking, Ukraine is a nobody.
  • WW-III is not about to start next week.
Chances are good that indices go sideways for the next couple of weeks before they start going higher again.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 9, 2014

Bulls Need DJI And DJT Confirmation This Week

Updated for recent dividend payments


  
NAZ, RUT and SPX put in multi-year highs last week.   There is a good chance that we see those highs get confirmed by DJI and DJT as they put in their own new highs sometime this coming week.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

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Thursday, March 6, 2014

RTS is Selling MA and Buying VOD in its place


Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

RTS is Selling MA and Buying VOD in its place on Friday 3/7/2014 at the open.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, March 2, 2014

A Buying Opportunity Is Coming Up

NAZ, SPX and RUT closed at all time or multiyear highs on Thursday or Friday.  The rise in February was broad based with small and mid caps leading.  On Friday, DJI made its first attempt to break through its Primary Downtrend Line (thick black line in figure below) before a sell off due to the news out of Ukraine.
 
 

The situation in Ukraine is serious because Russians will not back down.   I believe we are in for a few days of very choppy markets.  My plan is to do my fourth and final buy into a major panic which could send SPX to back test its 50 and 20 D-SMA around 1825.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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