Monday, July 28, 2014

SPX And NDX Have Topped Out

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of close of 7/17/2014
 
RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

A top has been formed now and large cap indices (DJI, SPX and NDX) are positioned to follow RUT to lower values.  SPX tested its 20 D-SMA on again on Friday.  That was the 8th test of that support for SPX in the last 3 weeks.  After so many blows, that support has been weakened substantially and it's ready to cave in, probably early this week.  A daily close below 20 D-SMA would signal more selling and a very likely test of 50 D-SMA for SPX.

Looking at weekly charts,  since 2009 bottom, every time that RUT has traded at or below its 50 W-SMA, SPX has at least tested its 20 W-SMA.  RUT is about to test 50 W-SMA (1128, very likely this week) again which would suggest a temporary bottom for sell off around 1910ish for SPX

RTS Portfolio is 50% short in IWM, QQQ, SPY (equally) and 50% in cash.   My plan is to add to its short positions (another 25%)  as SPX starts to trade below its 20 D-SMA.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, July 20, 2014

It Might Pretty Ugly This Coming Week

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT 
Short as of closes of 7/17/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Updated for trades on 7/18/2014

SPX back tested its Primary Downtrend Line (PDL, shown in black) on Friday.  That was the second back test of PDL since current sell off started on July 7.

At this point, chances are high for SPX to sell off to test its 20 and 50 D-SMA sometime during the next couple of weeks unless companies reporting earnings this week totally blow away expectations.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Friday, July 18, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is SHORT

SGS Market Timer Status:   SHORT  
Short as of closes of 7/17/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

SGS Market Timer is "SHORT" as of close of Thr 7/17/2014.

SPX closed under its 20 D-SMA yesterday.  At this point a sell off to test supports at 1920 and 1900 is likely.  My plan is to add to RTS short positions as SPX back tests its 20 D-SMA, possibly today or on Monday.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Monday, July 14, 2014

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL   
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Updated for trades on 7/11/2014

 

SPX is challegining its all time high, but I believe this rally will fail and SPX sells off to test its PUL (black) around 1920 within next couple of weeks.

On Friday, I started opening my short positions (1 of 4) in SPY, QQQ and IWM.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, July 6, 2014

Upside For Major Indices Is Limited

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed on (Fri 6/20).  RTS Portfolio is in cash now.
 
Nearly by all measure, major indices are overbought and the likelihood of a 10% to 15% correction is high especially for NAZ and RUT.  My plan is to start opening short positions in SPY, QQQ and IWM as soon as SPX breaks through its 20 D-SAM, possibly sometime late this coming week or early the following week.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, June 29, 2014

SPX Is On Edge

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed on (Fri 6/20).  RTS Portfolio is in cash now.
 
Being on edge and indecisive is not particularly a comfortable place to be.  For that reason, SPX is going to make its move this coming week:
  • (A) Higher (80%): SPX starts a rally on Monday and continues its summer rally to 2000 and beyond.

  • (B) Lower (20%): SPX sells off to test its AUL (orange) and support around mid 1920's.
All last week, internals were remarkably strong and dips were bought aggressively.

Happy Fourth Everyone.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

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Sunday, June 22, 2014

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed on (Fri 6/20).  RTS Portfolio is in cash now.
 
Simply put indices are over bought.  I expect the situation in Iraq worsen which would push oil prices significantly higher and cause a sharp sell off in equities worldwide.

Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to find support at its 20 D-SMA around 1940.  If that support fails, SPX would probably sell off more to its AUL (thick orange) support around 1920's.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Friday, June 20, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

New SGS Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed today (Fri 6/20)

New SGS Timer is neutral as of close of Thr 6/19/2014.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, June 15, 2014

SPX Is Getting Ready To Set Another New High

RTS Portfolio is updated for all recent trades

Last week SPX sold off and found support around 1925.  SPX is now ready to rally and challenge its recent highs before selling off again to test lower 1900's.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Thursday, June 12, 2014

RTS Is Selling CVS And Buying APC

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS is selling CVS on Fri 6/13/2014 near the open.
RTS bought BRCM today (Thr), MU and APC buys are still pending.
 


Chances are good that SPX tests 1920 tomorrow before turning back and heading higher to set yet another new high sometime next week.
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RTS Is Selling WDC And Buying MU

RTS is selling WDC on Thr 6/12/2014 near the open.
I'm still waiting for an opportunity to buy.


The sell off that started on Monday very likely end today or tomorrow with SPX testing support around mid 1930's.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, June 8, 2014

Indices Are Overextended

RTS closed its  WYNN position on Friday.  Still waiting to buy replacement.

SPX, DJT, DJI, OEX and NDX put in new all time highs last week.  NAZ and RUT are still lagging behind, but chances are good that we see new all time highs by those two lagging indices soon.

For now SPX is over extended and very likely would sell off early this coming week to back test support at 1930 to 1920 before heading higher to yet another new high.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Thursday, June 5, 2014

RTS Selling WYNN ..... Buying BRCM

RTS is selling WYNN and buying BRCM in its place on Friday 6/6/2014 near the open.


Indices rallied strongly today with RUT and NAZ leading the rally.  That's pretty bullish and chances are excellent that indices continue their grind upward.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, June 1, 2014

Watching RUT And NAZ


Except for last Friday, both NAZ and RUT have been out preforming SPX and DJI for the last 10 trading days.  All we need to do is to watch NAZ and RUT. They will lead this market either up or down.  It's not really that complicated. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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