Monday, April 30, 2012

No Market For Old Bears

 SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011)
In CASH (closed all positions on 4/27/2012 at close)
Opening Following positions at open on Monday 4/30/2012 and closing on Friday 5/4 at close or if a goal of 2.5% portfolio gain is reached during the week.
  • Longs (10 Positions Equal $): GE  JPM  WFC  RIMM  SLV  GLW  NWSA  XLE  CX  KEY
  • Shorts (10 Positons Equal $):  SBUX CL  TWC  JNY  CXW  ALXN  NUS  SPY  SPY  SPY
SPX bounced of support at 1360 level last week and is rallying to challenge its recent multi-year high of 1422, but before getting there a sell off to test its Primary Uptrend Line (PUL)  at or around 1390 is very likely.  
on

Sunday, April 22, 2012

More Selling Is Coming Our Way

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011)
In CASH (closed all positions on 4/20/2012 at close)
Opening Following positions at open on Monday 4/23/2012 and closing on Friday 4/27 at close.
  • Longs (10 Positions Equal $): AMGN  NRG  DECK  BMRN  PSA  OKE  GIL  DISCK  FRT  PGNX
  • Shorts (10 Positons Equal $):  SPY in all 10 positions
SPX is about to test its Primary Uptrend Line again tomorrow.  A close below that line would definitely bring on more selling which could send SPX down to test supports at 1360 and 1340 sometime this week.

 Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com
on

Monday, April 16, 2012

SPX 1340 Is Likely Sometime This Week

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011) 

The Primary Uptrend Line Support for SPX held today, but I believe that support is considerably weaker now and would fail if tested again.  Next level of  support for SPX is at 1340.  Chances are excellent for SPX to trade around lower 1340 by this Wednesday.

Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com
on

Sunday, April 15, 2012

SPX Is About To Test Its Primary Up Trend Line

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011) 

The sell off on Friday was damaging to the bull case. Primary Up Trend Line (connecting lows of 10/4/11, 11/28,11 and 4/10,12, orange) is the key support for SPX. Breaking and closing below it, which coincides with closing below recent lows (1357), would bring on broad selling that very likely would send SPX down to test supports at 1360 and 1340.

Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com
on

Thursday, April 12, 2012

SPX Is About To Test Important Resistance at 1400

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011) 

SPX is about to test strong resistance at 1400 where its 20 D-SMA and Primary Down Trend intersect.  Should SPX clear 1400, it would very likely rally to multiyear new highs. If SPX cannot clear 1400, it would sell off to retest its 50 D-SMA and Primary Up Trend Line supports again.   I believe those support would fail and SPX would sell off further to test its early last March lows around 1340.

Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com
on

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

March Lows Will Very Likely Tested

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011)

 A review of major indices:
  • NAZ: At 50 D-SMA Support
  • DJI: At Early March Lows Support
  • RUT: At Early March Lows Support
  • DJT: At Early March Lows Support
  • SPX: At Primary Up Trend Line (orange) Support
After five down days, indices found strong supports to close on today.  It's highly likely that SPX rallies from its oversold condition tomorrow or the next day to back test its 50 D-SMA around 1370.

I believe there is more selling coming our way after a possible relief rally.  Most large cap high fliers (AAPL, PCLN, SBUX, FAST, FFIV, ROST, HD, etc.) and high volume index trackers (QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM, etc.) put in relatively long solid red candles with higher volumes.  Big Money is stealthily unloading long positions because he knows he can secure those positions at a lower cost later.  
I expect SPX to test its lows of last March (around 1340) sometime this week.  I'm still in cash and watching.  I would definitely post here should I decide to open long or short positions.

Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, April 8, 2012

SPX Is About To Test Its 50 D-SMA

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011)

SPX Futures are down around 1% suggesting an open tomorrow solidly below critical support at 1387.  It's highly likely that SPX tests its 50 D-SMA and its Primary Up Trend Line (orange) at or around 1370 sometime this week.

If this is the beginning of a substantial correction, we should see Big Money unloading long positions. I will be watching recent large caps high fliers, AAPL, GOOG, PLCN, etc. If they significantly under perform the indices with relatively higher volumes tomorrow, correction would continue well beyond 50 D-SAM. If they outperform or stay at par with indices, then SPX 1371 would be a good entry for going long.  

My guess is that SPX quickly goes to 50 D-SMA with no liquidation by Big Money and rallies back up again to set new highs on the back of good earnings.  My plan is to do my first buy right around 50 D-SMA sometime this week at SPX 1371.  I will post my detailed plan later.

Employment numbers released on Friday were very disappointing, but one thing is for sure: continued weak employment data would surely mean QE-III.   Furthermore, weak employment data means no labor cost pressure for businesses and hence higher profit margin for their products.  Bad employment data is always welcomed secretly by Big Money and Big Business.
 
Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Still Waiting For A Correction

SGS is NEUTRAL (As of close of 3/6/2012)
In CASH (closed all positions @ SPX 1254 on 12/22/2011)


I'm still in cash and waiting for a meaningful correction (7% to 10%).  Indices are overbought, but pushed higher via their futures everyday.  The rally since mid Dec 2011 is getting over extended.  Indices are going higher, but on lower and lower volume and shrinking number of new highs.

Face Book
Twitter
opader@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)