Sunday, March 6, 2016


Indices Are Overbought

Long Term Outlook (Weeks to Months):

SGS_LT Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
Short as of close of Dec 11, 2015
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) Timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Past Long Term Portfolios (2008-2015)

Longer term (weeks to months) picture has not changed much since last week.   SPX is trading within a bear flag (brown lines shown on chart above).  Chances are good that SPX sell off this coming week and falls through the bear flag sometime later in week.  

Short Term Outlook (Days to  to Weeks):

sgs_st  Market Timer Status:  short 
Short as of  1:00 PM on Feb 18, 2016
sgs_st is a Short Term (hours to days) Timer
(short term trading record of SPY using sgs_st will be posted soon. I'm waiting for a change in sgs_st status)

Shorter term, chances are good that the short term bear market rally since SPX 1810  ended on Friday at SPX 2009.

MY Plan:

No change. Depending what price action is seen around 1930, I might cover all short positions or keep them open.  Should SPX sell off, take out 1810 and close below it, I would do my third and final short sell in SPY and QQQ.

On Friday 2/19 I opened my first of 10 positions (equal $) in UWTI.  My plan is to add to that position on days that WTI Crude is down 4% or more.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational  purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.