Sunday, April 30, 2023

Under The Hood

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As of close last Friday, as shown above, SPY has retraced back more than half of its decline from its all-time high (479) to its low of last October (348).  Despite the rally last week, under the hood things are rather bearish as SGS put in lower values. 

At this point, one of the two following scenarios is going to happen:

(1) The boarder market rallies as SPY breaches its 50%-61.8% Fib resistance zone and SGS puts in higher values.

(2) Big market cap stocks sell off as SPY breaches its uptrend line (red), SGS puts in lower values, and indices sell off to test their October 2022 lows.  

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/28), the value of SGS was calculated to be -168.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

No change, I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.