Saturday, April 8, 2023

Between Rock And Hard Place

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

The Fed is caught between a rock and hard place.  They need to ease up on rate hikes or risk more bank failures.  They also need to abandon their 2% wage inflation goal or risk sending the economy into a deep and long recession.  At this point chances are good that the Fed does one or two more 25 basis point rate increases, then cuts rates later this year if economy slows down significantly. 

In a week or so, companies start posting their Q1 earnings and outlook for the rest of 2023.  Most companies very likely meet or exceed their expected earnings but damp down their outlook.  In that case, indices would sell off and possibly test their lows of last October. 

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/6), the value of SGS was calculated to be -173.  The status of SGS changed from NEUTRAL to SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.