Sunday, April 23, 2023

Big Bad Bear Flag

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

As of close last Friday, as shown above, SPY has retraced back half of its decline from its all-time high (479) to its low of last October (348).  Also, on its weekly chart above, a big bad bear flag has been formed.  There is a good chance that SPY start to decline again due to poor earnings reports this week, breaching its lower price channel and confirming the bear flag.  In that case, SPY very likely declines to test its last October low in the next couple of weeks.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Thursday (4/21), the value of SGS was calculated to be -98.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

The performance of SGS for 2023 has been terrible.  That's due to the fact that SGS is a trending following and lagging timer.  Trend following timers fall apart by whipsawing in and out of the market when there is no trend in the market.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

No change, I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.