Sunday, May 7, 2023

Recession Ahead?

SGS Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
SHORT as of the close of Thursday April 6, 2023 
Previous SGS Status

SGS is a Long-Term (weeks to months) Timer
SGS Performance Data 
Why Market Timing Is A Must

What worries financial markets is not inflation or high interest rates, it is whether or not there is a recession ahead.  A good predictor of a recession is continued selling of small cap. stocks. 

If Russell 2000, on its weekly chart shown above, sells off and breaches its support (red), there is a good chance that the economy is either in a recession or enters into a recession soon.  A rally and a close above the resistance line (green) in the next  couple of weeks would indicate that the chance of a recession is slim.

SGS Market Timer

As of the close of last Friday (5/5), the value of SGS was calculated to be -251.  The status of SGS remains SHORT.

S&P 500 Support And Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels for SPX for this week are shown above.

My Plan

No change, I'm 95% in cash and my plan is to stay in cash for now. Cash is earning around 4% at Fidelity.


SPX: S&P 500 Index    SMA: Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    EMA: Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ASL: Active Support Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    ARL: Active Resistance Line
NDX: NASDAQ 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line
TLR: Trend Line Resistance   TLS: Trend Line Support

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.