Sunday, June 29, 2014

SPX Is On Edge

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed on (Fri 6/20).  RTS Portfolio is in cash now.
 
Being on edge and indecisive is not particularly a comfortable place to be.  For that reason, SPX is going to make its move this coming week:
  • (A) Higher (80%): SPX starts a rally on Monday and continues its summer rally to 2000 and beyond.

  • (B) Lower (20%): SPX sells off to test its AUL (orange) and support around mid 1920's.
All last week, internals were remarkably strong and dips were bought aggressively.

Happy Fourth Everyone.

twitter

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

on

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Indices Are Overbought

SGS Market Timer Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed on (Fri 6/20).  RTS Portfolio is in cash now.
 
Simply put indices are over bought.  I expect the situation in Iraq worsen which would push oil prices significantly higher and cause a sharp sell off in equities worldwide.

Chances are good that SPX sells off this coming week to find support at its 20 D-SMA around 1940.  If that support fails, SPX would probably sell off more to its AUL (thick orange) support around 1920's.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Friday, June 20, 2014

SGS Market Timer Is Neutral

New SGS Status:   NEUTRAL 
Neutral as of close of 6/19/2014

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS Portfolio long positions were closed today (Fri 6/20)

New SGS Timer is neutral as of close of Thr 6/19/2014.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, June 15, 2014

SPX Is Getting Ready To Set Another New High

RTS Portfolio is updated for all recent trades

Last week SPX sold off and found support around 1925.  SPX is now ready to rally and challenge its recent highs before selling off again to test lower 1900's.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Thursday, June 12, 2014

RTS Is Selling CVS And Buying APC

RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
RTS is selling CVS on Fri 6/13/2014 near the open.
RTS bought BRCM today (Thr), MU and APC buys are still pending.
 


Chances are good that SPX tests 1920 tomorrow before turning back and heading higher to set yet another new high sometime next week.
on

RTS Is Selling WDC And Buying MU

RTS is selling WDC on Thr 6/12/2014 near the open.
I'm still waiting for an opportunity to buy.


The sell off that started on Monday very likely end today or tomorrow with SPX testing support around mid 1930's.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Indices Are Overextended

RTS closed its  WYNN position on Friday.  Still waiting to buy replacement.

SPX, DJT, DJI, OEX and NDX put in new all time highs last week.  NAZ and RUT are still lagging behind, but chances are good that we see new all time highs by those two lagging indices soon.

For now SPX is over extended and very likely would sell off early this coming week to back test support at 1930 to 1920 before heading higher to yet another new high.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Thursday, June 5, 2014

RTS Selling WYNN ..... Buying BRCM

RTS is selling WYNN and buying BRCM in its place on Friday 6/6/2014 near the open.


Indices rallied strongly today with RUT and NAZ leading the rally.  That's pretty bullish and chances are excellent that indices continue their grind upward.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, June 1, 2014

Watching RUT And NAZ


Except for last Friday, both NAZ and RUT have been out preforming SPX and DJI for the last 10 trading days.  All we need to do is to watch NAZ and RUT. They will lead this market either up or down.  It's not really that complicated. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Monday, May 26, 2014

A Top Continues To Be Formed

As expected NAZ and RUT out preformed SPX and DJI last week, signaling higher prices ahead.  SPX closed at a new all time high last Friday.  Chances are good that SPX continues its advance this week to mid 1930's.  


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, May 18, 2014

It's 50 - 50


SPX, DJI and DJT jumped early in the week and set all time highs before they lost their gains later in the week.  On Thursday and Friday, RUT successfully tested its April low while all remaining 4 indices were not anywhere close to their April lows.  That divergence is bullish and signals a high probability that a bottom for RUT has been put in.

Chances are good that SPX rallies pass its PDL and challenges its recent high around 1900.  Chances are also good that we we see NAZ and RUT rally along side of SPX as it reaches 1900 again.   What happens after that depends on whether or not NAZ and RUT significantly out perform SPX.  If they do, chances are good that rally continues to SPX 1925, otherwise all major indices would be heading south.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, May 11, 2014

SPX Is Ready To Jump


Chances are good that a top is being formed, but that process still has another 30 to 40 trading days (1.5 to 2 calender months)  to go before it's complete.  In the meantime, we should see new all time highs for large cap indices.  DJI, the king of large cap indices, is leading the way as it put in a new all time closing high on Friday.  SPX and DJT are not that far behind and very likely would put in new highs sometime this coming week.

I'm watching NDX and especially momentum stocks (i.e. AAPL, TSLA, NFLX, BIIB, ALXN, WYNN, FB ....) of that index.  The topping process is complete when we see fresh new highs for NDX while momentum stocks rally and get close to their old highs.


Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Is A Top Being Formed?

Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


SPX is very likely going to punch through Neck Bank this coming week.  A daily close above 1895 would signal a swift move to 1925 initially and 1960 probably by mid May.

In the last two months, large caps have been substantially out performing small caps.  If out performance by large caps continues, chances are good that we would see large cap indices (i.e. DJI, SPX and NDX) peak into a bubble sometime in late June or early July.  Bursting that bubble would cause a significant correction (15% to 30%) in all indices by Sep / Oct 2014.
 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on

Sunday, April 27, 2014

It's Still 70 - 30

Needs to be updated for recent trades
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


SPX tried hard to get through the 1870-1890 resistance band last week, but by Friday it gave up, sold off, tested its 20 D-SMA and closed slightly above it.
 
Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off  last week has put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern.  After a minor sell off on Monday and a successful test of 50 D-SMA, SPX rallies through its immediate resistance band to reach new all time highs by Thursday or Friday.

Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), after an unsuccessful attempt to punch through resistance at 1870, selling picks up momentum and continues to test 100 D-SMA, recent low (1814) and PUL for SPX around 1800.  A weekly close below PUL would be game changer and would signal a high probability of significant selling ahead.
 

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
on
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)