Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Monday, May 26, 2014
A Top Continues To Be Formed
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, May 18, 2014
It's 50 - 50
Chances are good that SPX rallies pass its PDL and challenges its recent high around 1900. Chances are also good that we we see NAZ and RUT rally along side of SPX as it reaches 1900 again. What happens after that depends on whether or not NAZ and RUT significantly out perform SPX. If they do, chances are good that rally continues to SPX 1925, otherwise all major indices would be heading south.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, May 11, 2014
SPX Is Ready To Jump
I'm watching NDX and especially momentum stocks (i.e. AAPL, TSLA, NFLX, BIIB, ALXN, WYNN, FB ....) of that index. The topping process is complete when we see fresh new highs for NDX while momentum stocks rally and get close to their old highs.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, May 4, 2014
Is A Top Being Formed?
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
SPX is very likely going to punch through Neck Bank this coming week. A daily close above 1895 would signal a swift move to 1925 initially and 1960 probably by mid May.
In the last two months, large caps have been substantially out performing small caps. If out performance by large caps continues, chances are good that we would see large cap indices (i.e. DJI, SPX and NDX) peak into a bubble sometime in late June or early July. Bursting that bubble would cause a significant correction (15% to 30%) in all indices by Sep / Oct 2014.
In the last two months, large caps have been substantially out performing small caps. If out performance by large caps continues, chances are good that we would see large cap indices (i.e. DJI, SPX and NDX) peak into a bubble sometime in late June or early July. Bursting that bubble would cause a significant correction (15% to 30%) in all indices by Sep / Oct 2014.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, April 27, 2014
It's Still 70 - 30
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off last week has put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern. After a minor sell off on Monday and a successful test of 50 D-SMA, SPX rallies through its immediate resistance band to reach new all time highs by Thursday or Friday.
Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), after an unsuccessful attempt to punch through resistance at 1870, selling picks up momentum and continues to test 100 D-SMA, recent low (1814) and PUL for SPX around 1800. A weekly close below PUL would be game changer and would signal a high probability of significant selling ahead.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
SPX tried hard to get through the 1870-1890 resistance band last week, but by Friday it gave up, sold off, tested its 20 D-SMA and closed slightly above it.
Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off last week has put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern. After a minor sell off on Monday and a successful test of 50 D-SMA, SPX rallies through its immediate resistance band to reach new all time highs by Thursday or Friday.
Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), after an unsuccessful attempt to punch through resistance at 1870, selling picks up momentum and continues to test 100 D-SMA, recent low (1814) and PUL for SPX around 1800. A weekly close below PUL would be game changer and would signal a high probability of significant selling ahead.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Saturday, April 19, 2014
SPX Is Getting Ready For Another New All Time High?
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
As expected all major indices rallied significantly last week. On Wednesday SPX bulldozed through its PDL, continued its rally on Thursday and closed just below its resistance band (highlighted in orange). Getting through that band is not going to be easy. There certainly will be at least one or two unsuccessful attempts early this coming week. Chances are good that SPX gaps up on Monday into the resistance band, then sells off to back test its 20 and possibly 50 D-SMA's.
Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off early in the week, would put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern. A rally after the sell off and a close above the neckline (SPX 1780) of that Inverse H&S, would signal a powerful advance to SPX 1925 by late April.
Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), the sell early in the week picks up momentum and continues to PUL to retest recent lows.
Under the most bullish scenario (shown in green, 70%), the sell off early in the week, would put in place the right shoulder for a sizable inverse head and shoulders pattern. A rally after the sell off and a close above the neckline (SPX 1780) of that Inverse H&S, would signal a powerful advance to SPX 1925 by late April.
Under the most bearish scenario (shown in red, 30%), the sell early in the week picks up momentum and continues to PUL to retest recent lows.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Indices Are Oversold
RTS is selling SNDK and buying EXC in its place on Monday 4/14/2014 near the open.
My plan is to buy EXC, but wait on selling SNDK to see if SPX rallies back to its PDL.
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
It was an ugly week for bulls, but I believe we are at or near the bottom of current selling leg. There is a good chance that we see more selling tomorrow to test Primary Uptrend Line (PUL) for SPX around 1810 and possibly an intraday panic to slightly below 1800. After that, SPX very likely rallies to test its new Primary Downtrend Line and back test its 50 D-SMA around 1840.
The level of "doom and gloom" noise is at extreme high now which in itself is a good sign for bulls. It's always easy to come up with some idiotic doomsday prediction (without specifying any date for that prediction, of course) and disappear, then to reappear at some point in the future only if that prediction comes true to brag and shout "I told you so".
From a macro point of view, nothing has really changed. Central banks are very accommodating and have stated that they would step in aggressively to stimulate growth if needed. Inflation is in check. US economy is growing at a healthy rate of 3%. If earnings and forecast continue to be good, chances are good that indices rally back to set new highs.
At this point I believe there is one event that could send our economy into a deep recession and bring about a mutli-year bear market. That event is a victory by Reps in November mid-term election to gain majority in both houses of Congress. In that case, we would see the House starting an impeachment process. We might also see another attempt at shutting down the government and even defaulting on national debt. More on that later.
The level of "doom and gloom" noise is at extreme high now which in itself is a good sign for bulls. It's always easy to come up with some idiotic doomsday prediction (without specifying any date for that prediction, of course) and disappear, then to reappear at some point in the future only if that prediction comes true to brag and shout "I told you so".
From a macro point of view, nothing has really changed. Central banks are very accommodating and have stated that they would step in aggressively to stimulate growth if needed. Inflation is in check. US economy is growing at a healthy rate of 3%. If earnings and forecast continue to be good, chances are good that indices rally back to set new highs.
At this point I believe there is one event that could send our economy into a deep recession and bring about a mutli-year bear market. That event is a victory by Reps in November mid-term election to gain majority in both houses of Congress. In that case, we would see the House starting an impeachment process. We might also see another attempt at shutting down the government and even defaulting on national debt. More on that later.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
RTS Portfolios Are All Update Finally :)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, April 6, 2014
Tough Week Is Ahead For Bulls
RTS Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Needs to be updated for recent trades
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
Needs to be updated for recent trades
Indices Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
SPX found support on its Active Uptrend Line and 20 D-SMA last Friday. A close below AUL tomorrow would signal a test of 50 and possibly 100 D-SMA this coming week. There is a good chance, however, that after a quick sell off early Monday, SPX rallies to test overhead resistance at its recent new all time highs.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Monday, March 31, 2014
RTS is Selling TSLA and Buying ORCL
RTS is selling TSLA and buying ORCL in its place on Tuesday 4/1/2014 near the open.
Today I sold FB and bought HAL, still waiting on selling MU, ALXN and buying EXPE, CVS. My plan is get all RTS trades done within the next couple of days.
Today was a good day for bulls. SPX closed above its PDL, nicely above its 20 D-SMA and 0.6% from its all time high. RUT closed nicely above its 50 D-SMA. Both DJI and DJT closed above their 20 D-SMA's and less than 1% from their all time highs. NAZ tagged its 50 D-SMA and is getting ready to break through it.
Everything now points to companies reporting good earnings and outlook. Chances are good the rally that started today continues for a few more days.
Everything now points to companies reporting good earnings and outlook. Chances are good the rally that started today continues for a few more days.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Indices Are Oversold, Expecting A Sizable Bounce This Week
RTS is selling FB, ALXN, MU and buying EXPE, HAL, CVS in their places on Monday near the open.
My plan to do all three buys near the open tomorrow then wait until mi-week to sell.
Action on Friday was certainly disappointing, but all major indices still managed to close nicely into green. As of close of last Friday, major indices are oversold. I expect a rally this week that would push SPX to test its Primary Downtrend Line (PDL) around 1874, possibly as early as tomorrow.
There is an awful lot of doom and gloom noise out there these days, but ultimately it's the first quarter earnings and forecasts that would either send indices to new highs or cause a major correction. So far all signs on my radar point to good earnings and outlook for most companies.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Monday, March 24, 2014
RTS is Selling NFLX and Buying SNDK
RTS is Selling NFLX and Buying SNDK in its place on Tuesday 3/25/2014 near the open.
Today Big Money was pretty busy churning positions and buying whatever that was sold in a panic. NAZ managed to cut its losses and close nicely above its 50 D-SMA. As of close of today, all major indices are comfortably trading above their 50 D-SMA. The bull market is quite intact and bulls don't have much to worry about.
First quarter earnings and forecasts are going to either tank the market or send it much much higher. Base on Big Money's daily actions that I have seen so far, chances of breaking to upside is considerably higher.
First quarter earnings and forecasts are going to either tank the market or send it much much higher. Base on Big Money's daily actions that I have seen so far, chances of breaking to upside is considerably higher.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Uptrend In Indices Is Well Intact
RTS is selling CTSH , YHOO and buying GMCR, HPQ in their places on Monday near the open
Last Friday SPX put in a new all time high before quadruple witching selling hit the market, especially Nasdaq high fliers. Chances are good that indices go sideways for another week before they start going higher again.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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