Tuesday, February 23, 2016

TUE - FEB 23 2016

SGS_LT  Market Timer Status:  SHORT 
Short as of close of Dec 11, 2015
SGS_LT is a Long Term (weeks to months) timer
Current Long Term Portfolio (2016)
Updated for recent trades
sgs_st  Market Timer Status:  short 
Short as of  1:00 PM on Feb 18, 2016
sgs_st is a short term (hours to days) timer for SPX
(short term trading record of SPY using sgs_st will be posted soon. I'm waiting for a change in sgs_st status)

@ 10:33 PM PST :  Market internal and breadth data suggests that the sell off very likely continues tomorrow.  I expect SPX to test 1900.

@ 3:35 PM - Bears could use a nice whoosh into the close.  If that happens, SPX very likely would test its DTL around 1906 tomorrow, good place to close all or at least 1/2 of put positions:

@ 2:05 PM - On weekly, SPX successfully back tested it DTL, resistance held with no penetration ... good sign for bears:

@ 1:56 PM - Waiting for indices to take out their LOD's before adding more shorts (SPY and SPY puts, short term trading only).

@ 1:10 PM - A small bear flag is being formed:

@ 12:40 PM - Bears need a close at or below 1915 today ... that would very likely send SPX to test 1900 tomorrow. 

@ 11:26 AM -
It seems negotiation among US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran over Syria is hitting major sangs, so oil war is back on and by proxy risk off.

@ 10:55 AM - SPX is about to test support at 1925 (old PDL-1 trend line).  A close below that line today would signal a move to test 1900.

@ 10:17 AM - SPX is not trading below its 13 H-EMA (hourly chart).  Bears like me need a close below that.

@ 9:46 AM - Support: 1940, 1925 /  Resistance: 1950    


SPX: S&P 500 Index    D-SMA: Daily - Simple Moving Average
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Index    D-EMA: Daily - Exponential Moving Average
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Index    PDL: Primary Downtrend Line
NAZ: NASDAQ Composite Index    PUL: Primary Uptrend Line
RUT: Russell 2000 Index    ADL: Active Downtrend Line
OEX: S&P 100 Index    AUL: Active Uptrend Line
NDX: Nasdaq 100 Index    DTL: Dynamic Trend Line   
TUL: Tentative Uptrend Line   TDL: Tentative Downtrend Line  

Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.