Thursday, December 20, 2012

SPX Is Backteing Neckline

Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

New Long Term Dividend Portfolios


On Tuesday SPX rallied and closed solidly above the neckline (SPX 1435, thick green) of an inverse head and shoulder price formation.  The confirmation of that pattern signals a move to its objective (SPX 1525) by mid January. 

As expected, SPX sold off yesterday to back test the neckline.  Assuming a successful back test (i.e. a close above the neckline today), my plan is to do my first buy of four sometime today.  There is a good chance that SPX sells off to back test trend line supports at 1431 and 1424 today.

Below is my list of picks (with some changes since I posted them initially on Monday):

RTS Portfolio:  
FSLR  GMCR  KBH  PHM  PXP  NFLX   MPEL  NRG  C VLO WDC ETN

RTS Dividend Portfolio: 
SFUN  NCT  NRF  SCCO  ATAX   PMT   CLMT   RAS  RBS   WSR  MITT  KCAP  HIG

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Monday, December 17, 2012

Back Testing Of SMA's Is Likely

Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

New Long Term Dividend Portfolios


Cash indices rallied today due to buying and short covering of their futures.  SPX is about to run into a major resistance zone (1431 - 1435) which very likely sends SPX down to back test its 100, 50 and possibly 20 D-SMA (1417 - 1411) within next couple of days. My plan is to open new long positions (1st of 4 buys) in that sell off.  There is also the possibility of SPX continuing its rally and pushing through the neckline.  In that case, I would open long positions as it sells off to back test the neckline at or around 1436.

RTS Picks:  
FSLR  GMCR  KBH  PHM  PXP  NFLX   MPEL  NRG  C VLO

RTS Dividend: 
SFUN  NCT  NRF  SCCO  ATAX   PMT   CLMT   RAS  RBS   WSR

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Market Is Predicting A Budget Agreement

Long Term Current and Past Portfolios

New Long Term Dividend Portfolios


Despite selling in indices last week, market breadth and number of new highs actually improved signaling that any future selling in indices would be limited.  Also, selling last week put in the right shoulder of a possible inverse H&S price formation for most major indices.  

I except a very choppy trading week ahead, but chances are good now that indices eventually rally later in the week.  That means Market is predicting that a budget agreement will be reached by end of his coming week or at least significant progress is made toward an agreement.

Per my plan all long positions both in RTS and RTS dividend long term portfolios were closed last week.  My plan is to buy dips and open new long positions in both long term portfolios starting this week.  I will post my picks tomorrow.

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Sunday, December 9, 2012

Uptrend Is In Trouble

Long Term Current and Past Portfolios


The rally that started on 11/16 is running to stiff resistance.  On weekly charts, except for NAZ, the uptrend in all major indices is still intact.  For daily charts, it is a different story.  Except for DJI, the uptrend in all major indices has been broken.

Indices are predicting a drawn out budget fight in DC. A fight that is not going to be settled until Big Money scares everyone into an agreement by pushing indices down 3% to 5% for a couple of days or so.  Those down days would be excellent buying opportunities.

My plan is to close all my long positions in both long term portfolios (RTS and RTS Div) and open new long positions during upcoming sell off.  I think SPX 1425 to 1435 is a good range to sell into.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

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Tuesday, December 4, 2012

In RTS Divident Portfolio: Selling CXS and Buying SCCO

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012) 

Long Term Current and Past Portfolios
In RTS Portfolio, RTS is selling GPS and buying GMCR in its place tomorrow (Wed) at the open.

New Long Term Dividend Portfolios
In the new RTS Dividend Portfolio, RTS is selling CXS and buying SCCO in its place tomorrow (Wed) at the open.

The rally that started on 11/16 is still intact.  I still expect new post 08/09 crash highs for all major indices sometime this year assuming the worthless in DC reach a compromise and come up with a reasonable plan to raise revenue and cut spending.  I am not holding my breath, we could actually go over "the cliff" which would cause unprecedented chaos in all markets worldwide (an excellent buying opportunity, lol).

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, December 2, 2012

A Move To Test Neckline Is Very Likely

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012) 

SPX is trading within a rising price channel (shown in thick orange).  Chances are good that SPX continues its rally this coming week to 1430 - 1435 to test the Neckline of a possible Inv. H&S formation .  After that SPX could sell off to 1410 - 1400 to put in the Right Shoulder and then rallying pass the Neckline which would signal a melt up to lower 1500.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 25, 2012

An All Time High For SPX In 2012?

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012) 

Indices rallied last week as Big Money aggressively bought the dip into SPX 1340's.  SPX seems to be forming an Inverse H&S with its Neckline around 1430 to 1435 (thick green).  There is a good chance that SPX rallies to the neckline this coming week and then selling off to 1410 - 1400 to form the right shoulder. After that a rally pass the neckline signals a move to lower 1500's and possibly a melt up to higher 1500's.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Monday, November 19, 2012

Indices Are Oversold - Late Post

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012) 

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Indices are rallying from an oversold condition today (Monday).  I think there is a good chance we see SPX test resistance at 1400 to 1410 level this week or early next week.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Indices Are Oversold, A Rally Is Imminent

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012) 

RTS is selling UNG and buying NFLX in its place on Monday 11/12/2012 at the open.



Indices were push down hard which forced weak long hands to fold.  At this point, indices are oversold and we should see a rally starting tomorrow.
 
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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Sunday, November 4, 2012

Hello Four More Years

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012)
 

Action on Friday was very disappointing for bulls, but I still think as soon as the election is over indices will rally into Christmas.

As far as election goes it's over imo, Obama will get his second term, Reps lose a few seats in the house, but still keep it, Dems gain 1 to 3 seats in the senate and keep that. I think Market might initially sell off maybe Wed AM, then it will rally hard into next year.

If we have no president by Wed AM (less than 1% chance imo), Market will go down hard on Wed and continue going down until it's sorted out again by the SC which would give presidency to Romney (5-4) sometime in Dec or early Jan.   If that happens, I would close all long positions and start opening short positions.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

RTS Is Selling AEO And Buying FSLR

SGS is Long (As of close of 4/30/2012)


RTS is selling AEO and buying FSLR in its place tomorrow (Thursday) at the open.  I am doing the same in my LT Portfolio.
Indices are oversold.  Chances are good we see a rally starting tomorrow pushing SPX to back test its 50 DSMA around 1435. 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice or recommendation.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.
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