SPX Very Likey Backtests Its 50D Very Soon

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)
Re-Post (Thr 9/1/11 @ 6:10 PST): I didn't buy 10 RTS Stocks yesterday, but I  think I will today.  Same 10 stocks, except for DFS replacing MOS.

Indices are doing fine. A pull back to SPX 1200 and possibly mid 1190's is very likely.  Good place to open new long positions.

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SPX On Its Way To Backtest Its 50D SMA Around 1250

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

I'm scaling into MOS  PM  GLD  EXPE  NEM  AMZN  MCD  V  AAPL and  PPL.  First buy of 3 buys shortly after open tomorrow.  I'll post on my FB Wall.

I expect indices to pull back briefly to back test previous resistance levels and then fly higher to back test previous significant support levels.  For SPX a pull back to lower 1190's to upper 1180's is very much in the card (excellent buying opportunity).  After that chances are good that we see SPX move up to back test its  50D SMA around 1250.

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SPX Double Bottom Price Pattern Confirmed

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

Today SPX closed at its high of the day at 1210 confirming a Double Bottom price pattern.  The objective for that pattern is SPX 1300, but before getting there SPX will surely encounter stiff resistance at 1220 and 1265.

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SPX Is To Test Resistance Band 1200 - 1220

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11) 
RTS 200110825 Long Portfolio (Bench Mark)

 
My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)
I'm planning to scale into 10 RTS stocks soon.  I don't like current RTS top 10 picks.  I'm going to give it a few more days to see what happens.  In the meantime index ETF's are doing well.

Indices are in a good shape and SPX very likely will test the resistance band between 1200 to 1220 this week.  So far so good.

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Indices Look Good

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11)

RTS 200110825 Long Portfilio (Bench Mark)

(will be updated this weekend)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)
I'm going to wait a few more days before adding more long positions.

Odds are substantially higher for a move to test recent SPX highs around 1200 to 1220 than a move to test recent SPX lows around 1120 to 1100. Hopefully Uncle Ben won't totally disappoint.

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SGS Is Long

SGS is LONG (As of close of 8/24/11)

RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

Today at the RTS opens 10 new long positions in:

EXPE, V, GLD, MCD, NEM, DFS, PM, AXP, PPL and BMY

 

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)
I'm going to wait a few more days before adding more long positions.

Indices look good.  Immediate resistance for SPX are at  1200 and 1220.  A solid and heavy close over 1220 next week confirms a Double Bottom (DB) price pattern with an objective of 1320.

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Side And Gold Money Is Coming In

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)

RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

Although short covering added fuel to today's rally, but it was side and gold money that propelled indices around 4% higher.  Volumes both on NYSE and NASDAQ were high, breadth was fantastic and buying volume accelerated toward the close

Yesterday from 9:00 to 9:30 Jimbo the CNBC clown, per orders from his master Big Money,  ran  his mouth non-stop "recommending" everyone to sell their stocks, "specially their tech stocks", and buy gold.  Somethings never change.

Market looks good for now.  I'm not sure how far we go up, but a test of very recent highs around SPX 1200 - 1210 is very much in the cards.  SGS is still neutral but flashing "Long".

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Bottom Building Is In Progress

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)

RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

Despite indices losing most of their earlier gains into the close, there was hardly any wholesale liquidation of equities.  This signals that a bottom is being formed and chances of major indices moving substantially lower (greater than 5%) is remote. 

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Downside Risk Is Very Limited (((())))

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)
RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

On Friday SPX tested its support around 1120.  Numerous divergence by indicators, breadth data and the number of new lows, at least for now, signal that we had a successful retest of recent lows.   Although one cannot rule out more selling next week, but the downside risk at this point is very very limited.

This is an excellent opportunity to open new long positions, imo.  I'm 50% long in indices now.  As soon as SGS goes long, my plan is to open more long positions in RTS stocks.

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Indices Are Drag Down To Create Fear And Panic

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)
RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio
I'm 50% in (IWM, QQQ, SPY equal $)

Cash indices were dragged down by heavy selling of their future contracts.  It seems Big Money is trying hard to bring about a capitulation, maybe as early as tomorrow.

Tomorrow, SPX could sell off to test supports at 1120 (which very likely holds) and 1100.  If 1120 gives, selling momentum very likely would push SPX below 1100 to trade in upper 1080's to lower 1090's for a very short period.  A fantastic place to sell out of money SPY September puts.

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Is It Late 2008 In Europe?

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)
RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

I'm planning to buy indices at SPX 1171 or lower (another 1/6). 

 

It does seem like late that it's late 2008 in Europe.  I don't think Europeans could or would deal with their issues (i.e. bank losses) because they have no "Mr. Risk"  running around with a one pager asking for $700 B "RIGHT NOW".  I do see , however,  a scenario under which Uncle Ben comes to rescue European banks indirectly (via Big Money).  They might even call it QE-III.

Futures are significantly down as of this writing.  It would be interesting to see if Big Money buys into this dip or piles into selling and liquidate long positions.  My guess is indices are driven down via their future contracts and Big Money will buy the dip today. 

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Indices Look Good

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)
RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

I bought indices yesterday, scaled in (another 1/6).

 

I'm away.  I'll be back on Thursday.

 

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SPX On Its Way To Backtest Neckline Around 1255

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)
RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

I did not buy indices yesterday, but planning to scale (another 1/6) into indices today.

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A Bottom Is Very Likely In Place

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/9/2011)
RTS is in CASH (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

I scaled (1/6) into 3 indices, planning to put another 1/6 to work sometime Mon AM.

I believe SPX is on its way to retest key previous support levels that have become resistance now.  They are 1200 and 1230, give or take a few points.  What is to happen after that is totally unknown and depends entirely on what the Fed and ECB decide to do.  If they roll in QE-III and its equivalent in Europe, indices would explode to the upside.  If they don't, then indices will sell off to retest lows put in last week.  My guess is that something big and bold will be announced soon (late August- early September at the latest).

I made an error in my analysis to determine the status of SGS on 8/4.  SGS didn't change from "Short" to  "Neutral" as of close of 8/4, it actually went "Neutral" as of close of  Tuesday 8/9.

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I'm taking a few days off .

I Have No Idea What Will Happen Tomorrow - Machines Are In Charge

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/4/2011)
RTS In Cash (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

Honestly I have no idea what Big Money is going to do tomorrow.  SPX could go as low as 1020 and as high 1200 all in the same day.

Big Money's machines are running markets now.

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S&P Downgrade Already Baked In?

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/4/2011)
RTS In Cash (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

S&P downgrade is baked in already in my opinion. Let's not forget that those S&P analysts who downgraded US debts on Friday are the same crooks who gave "AAA" rating to every sub-prime mortgage backed security that came across their desks for years. They kept that "AAA" rating on nearly all mortgage backed securities until about a month before the whole "sub-prime meltdown". Now all of sudden we should care about what they say about US debts?! These guys have no credibility, whatsoever. Big Money owns these guys and tells them what to do and what to say.   I'm certain that Big Money knew for days if not weeks about this downgrade. Big Money sold on the rumor for weeks and Big Money very likely is going to buy on the news now.

After reaching multiyear highs in late April to early May, indices sold off until mid to late June off due to seasonality and typical bull market profit taking.  Then they started a new rally to challenge their new highs until it was cut short by the totally manufactured debt ceiling crisis.  Market sold off as "Tea Baggers Got Big Dicks" show went on which finally forced an idiotic agreement on everyone.  An agreement that cuts  government spending exactly at the wrong time which will bring about another recession or possibly another depression as similar actions back in 1930 brought on the Great Depression.  The decline in the indices over the course of last two weeks is Market's reaction to that idiotic agreement as I warned you about in my post of  July 24.

Technically, the likelihood of a crash on Monday is slim because where we closed on indices on Friday and more importantly how small caps were being bought as indices were doing their gyrations.  It's probable that panic selling hits markets early this week and push prices lower, but I fully expect to see a substantially higher weekly close for all major indices by the end of the week (Friday Close).  Longer term, I believe SPX very likely rallies to test the Neckline sometime in late August.  After that, Market is going to look for QE-III in the States and something similar in Europe.  Without another round of Global QE all economies and all markets are doomed.

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Indices Are Dangerously Oversold

SGS is Neutral (as of close of 8/4/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

All short positions will be covered tomorrow 8/5/11 at the open.

RTS will be in cash after open tomorrow.

My Long Term Portfolio

I covered my shorts and sold my index short ETF's today.

My LT is in cash now.

Indices capitulated today.  They closed severely and dangerously over sold.  Tomorrow, somehow, someway indices are either back stopped or we'll have a global financial meltdown on our hands.  I didn't expect a capitulation anytime soon for reasons stated on my post yesterday.  The line in the sand today seemed to be yesterday's low which was also March low for all indices except for RUT.  I think Big Money did his best to defend that line. The problem was once a trading desk(s) continued selling beyond that support, all trading desks piled in. It was that herd mentality or possibly trading algorithms that pushed indices down so hard.

There is a good probability that we get a vicious short covering rally tomorrow if the employment data is better than expected or if the Fed intervene in some way, perhaps some statement before open if employment data is worse than expected.  If such a rally happens, I expect indices to rally around 2.5% intraday.

I did warn about this two weeks ago, "Fasten Your Seat Belt, Rough Ride Ahead".  The ride is about to get really rough now. 

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The Chinese Water Torture Continues

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

Indices sold off  with a relatively heavy volume today before rallying back to close well into the green.  SPX back tested its H&S Neckline and closed slightly below it.  The momentum from the rally today very likely pushes indices higher early tomorrow (ideal place to add more shorts), but odds are good that Big Money sells heavily into that rally.

I expect indices to sell off tomorrow and possibly test their today's lows.  A close tomorrow below today's lows would be very bearish and would leave indices at extreme oversold levels, hence increasing the probability of a severe correction or a crash.  In my opinion, Big Money would not allow indices reach extreme oversold conditions.  Indices would be back stopped via their future contracts to stop any possible capitulations and to keep prices stable.  Price stability is critical for Big Money not only as he unwinds its long equity positions, but also as he adds new short positions as decline continues.

The Chinese water torture that started on May 2 will continue so long as the Fed sits on the sideline and does not intervene via QE-III.

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All Five Major Indices Closed Solidly Below Their 200D SMA

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

All five major indices I follow closely are all trading below their 200D SMA.  Additionally SPX closed below the Neckline today, confirming the H&S price pattern for SPX.  The objected price for that pattern is SPX 1150 to be achieved sometime in late August to early September.

DJI, RUT and DJT are exhibiting signs of being oversold on their daily charts now.  Indices, however, can continue to go lower for many days or weeks even after being significantly oversold. In fact an oversold condition is a necessary prerequisite for a crash. If selling continues for a few more days, Market would be dangerously close to a major one day correction / crash, something between 3% to 5% drop with an intraday drop of 5% to 8%.

Considering the US and global economy at this point, only an aggressive action by the Fed can turn the market around.  Short of that, the Chinese water torture would continue until capitulation.

Interesting interview:
http://video.ft.com/v/946244201001/Long-View-Historian-sees-S-P-fall-to-400

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Bears Are Totally In Charge Now

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

I follow five major indices closely.  They are RUT, DJT, NAZ, DJI and SPX.  Two of them, RUT and DJT, are now solidly below their 200D SMA.  The remaining three are below their 50D SMA and very close to cross their 200D SMA.

We're trading in a bear market now, hence from here forward, rallies are opportunities to add more shorts (Per my plan, I added another round of shorts today shortly after open).  I think there is a good chance that SPX sells off to test the Neckline sometime this week, even as early as tomorrow.  A close below the Neckline confirms the H&S price pattern in SPX.  The objective for that pattern is SPX 1150 to be reached sometime in early to mid September.

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A Panicky Trip To Mr. Neckline Neighborhood Very Likely On Monday

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

The stalemate in the US Congress over the debt ceiling (a totally manufactured crisis) is far from over.  Even when they manage to pass a bill to increase the debt ceiling, I wouldn't expect anything other than a one day relief rally in indices.

Chances are good that indices continue to bleed lower for foreseeable future, at least until Captain Ben starts flying his helicopter again (QE-III). Even then, I wouldn't expect to see the same reaction in indices as we saw from late Aug 2010 to mid Feb 2011 in response to QE-II.  The market response to QE-III would be very muted imo.

We're in a bear market and indices will continue trading lower.  I think as soon as the debt ceiling issue is put to rest, we would start getting signals from the Fed that they're "standing ready with more quantitative easing" in order to prevent a crash in markets as more and more signs that economy headed toward another recession (double dip) emerge.  Nothing short of  a major overhaul of entitlement programs and tax code would turn this bear market into a bull market. What are the chances of such an overhaul anytime soon?  Zero to None.

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August 2 Might Come And Go Without A Raise In Debt Ceiling

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

During the last 4, 5 trading days, Big Money has been unloading long positions hand over fist. I've been posting about that on my blog and face book wall. To me that's a sign that this is not a temporary thing and indices could go substantially lower.  If this was a temporary sell off, Big Money would have sold future contracts of indices against its long positions instead of closing its long positions out right.

Per my plan I added more shorts today to my LT Portfolio.  Futures showing SPX at 200D SMA now. Tomorrow could get gully if it becomes clear that Reps can't even pass their own bill in the House. That would mean August 2 might come and go without a raise in debt ceiling.  If Reps can't get anything done tomorrow or their bill fails, SPX could sink down intraday to the Neckline, mid1260's. I would cover my shorts should SPX get there.

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Leaders RUT And DJT About To Test Their 200D SMA

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

RTS covered SWKS and sold short UAL in its place today at the open (late post).

My Long Term Portfolio

Market sold off into the close on heavy volume.  RUT and DJT are about to test their 200D SMA, very likely tomorrow.  A close below 200D SMA for RUT and DJT  would be very bearish, signaling the high likelihood of other indices doing the same.

My plan is to add more shorts tomorrow as indices bounce higher early in the day.

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2012 Presidential Election, That's What's All About

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

The big fight is not over how much to cut spending or raise taxes.  The big fight is about 2012 election.  Reps want to keep the debt ceiling issue alive until election by passing a bill that raises debt ceiling in multiple steps each requiring more debate and voting.  Dems want to pass a bill and put this behind them until 2013. 

So long as this fight goes on, Market will keep on bleeding lower.

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Bears Are Taking Charge

SGS is Short (as of close of 7/12/2011)
RTS 20110713 Short Portfolio (Bench Mark)

My Long Term Portfolio

All five major indices (DJI, NAZ, RUT, SPX and DJT) put in a lower high, a lower low and a lower close.  Momentum has shifted now and I believe bears are taking charge again.  Tomorrow they will try to drag indices down with vengeance.

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